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- Faculty Publications (895)
- 2022
- Working Paper
The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates
In this paper I document a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings fully captures the secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields since 1980. By contrast, yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the...
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Keywords:
United States Treasury;
Monetary Policy;
Yield Curve;
Central Banking;
Interest Rates;
Valuation
Hillenbrand, Sebastian. "The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates." Working Paper, January 2022.
- Article
Counterfactual Explanations Can Be Manipulated
By: Dylan Slack, Sophie Hilgard, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Sameer Singh
Counterfactual explanations are useful for both generating recourse and auditing fairness between groups. We seek to understand whether adversaries can manipulate counterfactual explanations in an algorithmic recourse setting: if counterfactual explanations indicate...
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Slack, Dylan, Sophie Hilgard, Himabindu Lakkaraju, and Sameer Singh. "Counterfactual Explanations Can Be Manipulated." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 34 (2021).
- December 2021
- Article
Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight
By: Aticus Peterson and Andy Wu
We study how learning by experience across projects affects an entrepreneur's strategic foresight. In a quantitative study of 314 entrepreneurs across 722 crowdfunded projects supplemented with a program of qualitative interviews, we counterintuitively find that...
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Keywords:
Crowdfunding;
Experience;
Prediction;
Timeline;
Complexity;
Entrepreneurship;
Learning;
Experience and Expertise;
Forecasting and Prediction
Peterson, Aticus, and Andy Wu. "Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight." Art. 1. Strategic Management Journal 42, no. 13 (December 2021): 2357–2388. (Lead article.)
- 2021
- Article
ThreeDWorld: A Platform for Interactive Multi-Modal Physical Simulation
By: Chuang Gan, Jeremy Schwartz, Seth Alter, Damian Mrowca, Martin Schrimpf, James Traer, Julian De Freitas, Jonas Kubilius, Abhishek Bhandwaldar, Nick Haber, Megumi Sano, Kuno Kim, Elias Wang, Michael Lingelbach, Aidan Curtis, Kevin Feigelis, Daniel M. Bear, Dan Gutfreund, David Cox, Antonio Torralba, James J. DiCarlo, Joshua B. Tenenbaum, Josh H. McDermott and Daniel L.K. Yamins
We introduce ThreeDWorld (TDW), a platform for interactive multi-modal physical simulation. TDW enables simulation of high-fidelity sensory data and physical interactions between mobile agents and objects in rich 3D environments. Unique properties include: real-time...
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Keywords:
Artificial Intelligence;
Platform;
Interactive Physical Simulation;
Virtual Environment;
Multi-modal;
AI and Machine Learning
Gan, Chuang, Jeremy Schwartz, Seth Alter, Damian Mrowca, Martin Schrimpf, James Traer, Julian De Freitas, Jonas Kubilius, Abhishek Bhandwaldar, Nick Haber, Megumi Sano, Kuno Kim, Elias Wang, Michael Lingelbach, Aidan Curtis, Kevin Feigelis, Daniel M. Bear, Dan Gutfreund, David Cox, Antonio Torralba, James J. DiCarlo, Joshua B. Tenenbaum, Josh H. McDermott, and Daniel L.K. Yamins. "ThreeDWorld: A Platform for Interactive Multi-Modal Physical Simulation." Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS), Datasets and Benchmarks Track 35th (2021).
- 2021
- Book
The Future of Executive Development
By: Mihnea C Moldoveanu and Das Narayandas
Executive development programs have entered a period of rapid transformation, driven by digital disruption and a widening gap between the skills that participants and their organizations demand and those provided by their executive programs. This work delves into the...
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Moldoveanu, Mihnea C., and Das Narayandas. The Future of Executive Development. Stanford, CA: Stanford Business Books, 2021.
- 30 Nov 2021
- Interview
TikTok: Super App or Supernova?
By: Jeffrey F. Rayport and Brian Kenny
TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, was launched in 2012 around the simple idea of helping users entertain themselves on their smartphones while on the Beijing Subway. By May 2020, TikTok operated in 155 countries and had roughly 1 billion monthly active users, placing...
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Keywords:
Apps;
Artificial Intelligence;
Business Startups;
Mobile and Wireless Technology;
Business Model;
Digital Platforms;
Growth and Development Strategy;
AI and Machine Learning;
Social Media
"TikTok: Super App or Supernova?" Cold Call (podcast), Harvard Business Review Group, November 30, 2021. (Interviewed by Brian Kenny.)
- November 2021
- Case
Steve Schwarzman on Dealmaking I: “Becoming a ‘Friend of the Situation’” (A)
By: James K. Sebenius and Alex Green
Blackstone Co-founder, Chairman, and CEO Stephen A. Schwarzman, whom Forbes has called “Wall Street’s Greatest Dealmaker,” played a major role in the negotiations that transformed Blackstone from a fragile startup in 1985 with $400,000 in capital into a dominant...
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- November 2021
- Case
Steve Schwarzman on Dealmaking II: When They Hold All the Cards (A)
By: James K. Sebenius and Alex Green
Blackstone Co-founder, Chairman, and CEO Stephen A. Schwarzman, whom Forbes has called “Wall Street’s Greatest Dealmaker,” played a major role in the negotiations that transformed Blackstone from a fragile startup in 1985 with $400,000 in capital into a dominant...
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- November 2021
- Article
Venture Capitalists and COVID-19
By: Paul A. Gompers, Will Gornall, Steven N. Kaplan and Ilya A. Strebulaev
We survey over 1,000 institutional and corporate venture capitalists (VCs) at more than 900 different firms to learn how their decisions and investments have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We compare their survey answers to those provided by a large sample of...
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Keywords:
Investment Decisions;
COVID-19 Pandemic;
Impact;
Health Pandemics;
Venture Capital;
Investment;
Decision Making;
Surveys
Gompers, Paul A., Will Gornall, Steven N. Kaplan, and Ilya A. Strebulaev. "Venture Capitalists and COVID-19." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 56, no. 7 (November 2021).
- October 26, 2021
- Article
Value Chain Management to Implement Post-COVID-19 Health Care Strategy: The COVID-19 Crisis Has Created Areas of Innovation That Should Be Embraced by Health Care Leaders
By: Michael E. Porter, Junaid Nabi and Thomas H. Lee
Health care organizations must learn from what has worked during the COVID-19 crisis. Leaders have found that while they cannot do everything, they must define and manage the sequence of activities required to deliver high-value care.
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Keywords:
COVID-19 Pandemic;
Value-based Health Care;
Value Chain;
Health Pandemics;
Health Care and Treatment;
Management;
Strategy
Porter, Michael E., Junaid Nabi, and Thomas H. Lee. "Value Chain Management to Implement Post-COVID-19 Health Care Strategy: The COVID-19 Crisis Has Created Areas of Innovation That Should Be Embraced by Health Care Leaders." DOI: 10.1056/CAT.21.0302. NEJM Catalyst (October 26, 2021).
- 2023
- Working Paper
Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice
By: Benjamin Enke and Thomas Graeber
This paper studies the relevance of cognitive uncertainty – subjective uncertainty over one's utility-maximizing action – for understanding and predicting intertemporal choice. The main idea is that when people are cognitively noisy, such as when a decision is complex,...
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Keywords:
Cognitive Uncertainty;
Intertemporal Choice;
Cognition and Thinking;
Complexity;
Decision Choices and Conditions
Enke, Benjamin, and Thomas Graeber. "Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29577, December 2021. (R&R at The Quarterly Journal of Economics.)
- October 2021 (Revised December 2021)
- Case
Customer-Centric Design with Artificial Intelligence: Commonwealth Bank
By: Karim R. Lakhani, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Jin Hyun Paik and Steven Randazzo
As Commonwealth Bank (CommBank) CEO Matt Comyn delivered the full financial year results in August 2021 over videoconference, it took less than two minutes for him to make his first mention of the organization's Customer Engagement Engine (CEE), the AI-driven customer...
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Keywords:
Artificial Intelligence;
Customer-centricity;
Banks and Banking;
Customer Focus and Relationships;
Technological Innovation;
Transformation;
Organizational Change and Adaptation;
Performance;
AI and Machine Learning;
Financial Services Industry;
Australia
Lakhani, Karim R., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Jin Hyun Paik, and Steven Randazzo. "Customer-Centric Design with Artificial Intelligence: Commonwealth Bank." Harvard Business School Case 622-065, October 2021. (Revised December 2021.)
- October 2021
- Background Note
How to Write an Action-Planning Memo
By: Ryan Raffaelli and Akshaya Varghese
The ability to communicate an action plan through writing is essential for advancing ideas, earning credibility, and garnering support. Research has shown that leaders who write formal plans are more likely to execute successfully—written plans help members of an...
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Raffaelli, Ryan, and Akshaya Varghese. "How to Write an Action-Planning Memo." Harvard Business School Background Note 422-033, October 2021.
- October 2021 (Revised June 2022)
- Case
PittaRosso: Artificial Intelligence-Driven Pricing and Promotion
By: Ayelet Israeli
PittaRosso, a traditional Italian shoe retailer, is implementing an AI system to provide pricing and promotion recommendations. The system allows them to implement changes that would affect both the top of funnel and bottom of funnel activities for the company: once...
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Keywords:
Artificial Intelligence;
Pricing;
Pricing Algorithm;
Pricing Decisions;
Pricing Strategy;
Pricing Structure;
Promotion;
Promotions;
Online Marketing;
Data-driven Decision-making;
Data-driven Management;
Retail;
Retail Analytics;
AI;
Price;
Advertising Campaigns;
Analytics and Data Science;
Analysis;
Digital Marketing;
Budgets and Budgeting;
Marketing Strategy;
Marketing;
Transformation;
Decision Making;
AI and Machine Learning;
Retail Industry;
Italy
Israeli, Ayelet. "PittaRosso: Artificial Intelligence-Driven Pricing and Promotion." Harvard Business School Case 522-046, October 2021. (Revised June 2022.)
- 2021
- Chapter
Building Small Business Utopia: How Artificial Intelligence and Big Data Can Increase Small Business Success
By: Karen G. Mills and Annie Dang
Small business lending has remained unchanged for decades, laden with frictions and barriers that prevent many small businesses from accessing the capital they need to succeed. Financial technology, or “fintech,” promises to change this trajectory. In 2010, new fintech...
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Keywords:
Big Data;
Fintech;
Artificial Intelligence;
Small Business;
Financing and Loans;
Capital;
Success;
AI and Machine Learning;
Analytics and Data Science
Mills, Karen G., and Annie Dang. "Building Small Business Utopia: How Artificial Intelligence and Big Data Can Increase Small Business Success." In Big Data in Small Business, edited by Carsten Lund Pedersen, Adam Lindgreen, Thomas Ritter, and Torsten Ringberg. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2021.
- October 2021
- Article
Changing Gambling Behavior through Experiential Learning
By: Shawn A. Cole, Martin Abel and Bilal Zia
This paper tests experiential learning as a debiasing tool to reduce gambling in South Africa, through a randomized field experiment. The study implements a simple, interactive game that simulates the odds of winning the national lottery through dice rolling....
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Keywords:
Debiasing;
Experiential Learning;
Behavioral Economics;
Financial Education;
Learning;
Games, Gaming, and Gambling;
Behavior;
Decision Making
Cole, Shawn A., Martin Abel, and Bilal Zia. "Changing Gambling Behavior through Experiential Learning." World Bank Economic Review 35, no. 3 (October 2021): 745–763.
- Article
Health Equity, Schooling Hesitancy, and the Social Determinants of Learning
By: Meira Levinson, Alan C. Geller, Joseph G. Allen and John D. Macomber
At least 62 million K-12 students in North America—disproportionately low-income children of color— have been physically out of school for over a year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. These children are at risk of significant academic, social, mental, and physical harm...
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Keywords:
COVID-19;
Public Health;
Air Quality;
Social Determinants Of Health;
Schooling Hesitancy;
Vaccine Hesitancy;
Racial Injustice;
Inequity;
Inequality;
Health Pandemics;
Education;
Health Care and Treatment;
Policy;
Race;
Equality and Inequality
Levinson, Meira, Alan C. Geller, Joseph G. Allen, and John D. Macomber. "Health Equity, Schooling Hesitancy, and the Social Determinants of Learning." Art. 100032. Lancet Regional Health – Americas 2 (October 2021).
- October 2021
- Article
Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach
By: Nicolas Padilla and Eva Ascarza
The success of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) programs ultimately depends on the firm's ability to understand consumers' preferences and precisely capture how these preferences may differ across customers. Only by understanding customer heterogeneity, firms can...
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Keywords:
Customer Management;
Targeting;
Deep Exponential Families;
Probabilistic Machine Learning;
Cold Start Problem;
Customer Relationship Management;
Programs;
Consumer Behavior;
Analysis
Padilla, Nicolas, and Eva Ascarza. "Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 58, no. 5 (October 2021): 981–1006.
- September 2021 (Revised March 2024)
- Case
Tesla in 2023: 'Electrified' Competition
By: Eric Van den Steen, Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Karen Elterman
Over its 17 years in existence, Tesla had redefined people’s view of electric cars, and in 2020, the company saw its stock rise by more than 700% to became the most valuable carmaker in the world. In December 2020, Tesla celebrated its fifth consecutive quarter of...
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Keywords:
Barrier To Entry;
Competitive Advantage;
Innovation;
Tesla;
Automotive Industry;
Sustainable Competitive Advantage;
Values;
Vision;
Learning By Doing;
Economies Of Scale;
Electric Vehicle;
Scenario Planning;
Batteries;
Competitive Strategy;
Product Positioning;
Profit;
Competition;
Industry Growth;
Auto Industry
Van den Steen, Eric, Ramon Casadesus-Masanell, and Karen Elterman. "Tesla in 2023: 'Electrified' Competition." Harvard Business School Case 722-375, September 2021. (Revised March 2024.)
- September 2021 (Revised February 2022)
- Case
Sawiris Foundation: Elevating Education in Egypt
By: Brian Trelstad and Alpana Thapar
Founded in 2001 by the Sawiris family, one of the wealthiest families in Egypt, the Sawiris Foundation for Social Development (SFSD) invested in human capital and provision of basic social services for the most marginalized Egyptians. In 2015, Noura Selim’s (MBA 2013)...
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Keywords:
Sustainable Development;
Social Enterprise;
Education;
Social Issues;
Partners and Partnerships;
Growth and Development Strategy;
Education Industry;
Egypt
Trelstad, Brian, and Alpana Thapar. "Sawiris Foundation: Elevating Education in Egypt." Harvard Business School Case 322-023, September 2021. (Revised February 2022.)