Judgment And Decision Making - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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September 2023 (Revised February 2024)
Case

Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs' Growth

As 2017 was drawing to a close, birddogs’ founder and CEO, Peter Baldwin, was working with his CFO Jack Sullivan to prepare for 2018. Their task at hand? To predict the demand for their product in the coming season, determine the appropriate investments in working... View Details

Keywords: Inventory; Working Capital; Forecasting and Prediction; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Financing and Loans; Apparel and Accessories Industry

September 2023 (Revised January 2024)
Case

AI21 Labs in 2023: Strategy for Generative AI

By: David Yoffie, Orna Dan and Elena Corsi

Israeli generative artificial intelligence company AI21 Labs was founded in 2017 to realize the vision of true machine intelligence. It sought to reinvent writing and reading and in 2020 it launched Wordtune, an app using GenAI software to offer alternate text... View Details

Keywords: Decision Making; AI and Machine Learning; Innovation Strategy; Growth and Development Strategy; Applications and Software; Competitive Strategy; Technology Industry; Israel

September 13, 2023
Article

The Myth of the CEO as Ultimate Decision Maker

By: Nitin Nohria

Chief executives are responsible for guiding corporations, so the role inevitably requires making many decisions. But people overestimate the level of personal involvement CEOs have in this process. Instead of making decisions, CEOs tend to shape decisions, by... View Details

Keywords: Problem Solving; Delegation; Leadership Style; Decision Making; Time Management; Power and Influence

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September 2023 (Revised October 2024)
Case

Forecasting Climate Risks: Aviva’s Climate Calculus

By: Mark Egan and Peter Tufano

In late 2021, Ben Carr, Director of Analytics and Capital Modeling at Aviva Plc (Aviva)—a leading insurer with core operations in the UK, Ireland and Canada,—was preparing for an upcoming presentation before the company's board which included its CEO, Amanda Blanc,... View Details

Keywords: Climate Risk; Climate Finance; Forecasting; Insurance; Risk Measurement; Climate Change; Risk Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Insurance Industry; United States

September 2023 (Revised July 2024)
Case

Going Mobile-First? The Digital Transformation of Davivienda Bank in Colombia

By: Jorge Tamayo and Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago

Set in 2017, this case describes the digital transformation strategy of Davivienda—a leading player in Colombia’s commercial banking and one of the companies belonging to Grupo Bolívar, a major Colombian financial conglomerate. The case also describes the pioneer role... View Details

Keywords: Change Management; Transformation; Decision Choices and Conditions; Information Technology; Digital Strategy; Digital Transformation; Internet and the Web; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Innovation and Management; Innovation Strategy; Growth and Development Strategy; Business Strategy; Banking Industry; Latin America; Central America; South America; Colombia

September 2023
Supplement

Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs’ Growth (B)

As 2017 was drawing to a close, birddogs’ founder and CEO, Peter Baldwin, was working with his CFO Jack Sullivan to prepare for 2018. Their task at hand? To predict the demand for their product in the coming season, determine the appropriate investments in working... View Details

Keywords: Working Capital; Forecasting and Prediction; Expansion; Production; Apparel and Accessories Industry

September 2023
Supplement

Super Quantum: Using Artificial Intelligence to Transform Asset Management (B)

By: Feng Zhu and Kerry Herman

Dr. Zhang, CEO of Super Quantum, an AI-driven hedge fund, is considering an investor’s request to withdraw their funds as the markets experience volatility. Should he pull the investor’s funds? View Details

Keywords: Hedge Fund; Volatility; Decision Choices and Conditions; Asset Management; Investment Funds; Financial Services Industry

September 2023 (Revised March 2024)
Case

ReMo Energy: Sizing Up Investors

By: Jeffrey J. Bussgang and Tom Quinn

In 2023, executives with ReMo Energy (founded 2020) were deciding which size ammonia plant to build as their first project. Their innovative model produced ammonia—useful for making fertilizer and for energy storage—from renewable energy, and they had received funding... View Details

September 2023
Case

Super Quantum: Using Artificial Intelligence to Transform Asset Management (A)

By: Feng Zhu and Kerry Herman

Dr. Zhang, CEO of Super Quantum, an AI-driven hedge fund, is considering an investor’s request to withdraw their funds as the markets experience volatility. Should he pull the investor’s funds? View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Volatility; Financial Markets; Investment Funds; Decision Choices and Conditions; Financial Services Industry

September 2023
Article

Judging Foreign Startups

By: Nataliya Langburd Wright, Rembrand Koning and Tarun Khanna

Can accelerators pick the most promising startup ideas no matter their provenance? Using unique data from a global accelerator where judges are randomly assigned to evaluate startups headquartered across the globe, we show that judges are less likely to recommend... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship And Strategy; Global Strategy; Entrepreneurial Financing; Innovation; International; Entrepreneurship; Judgments; Business Startups; Geographic Location; Growth and Development Strategy

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2023
Article

On the Impact of Actionable Explanations on Social Segregation

By: Ruijiang Gao and Himabindu Lakkaraju

As predictive models seep into several real-world applications, it has become critical to ensure that individuals who are negatively impacted by the outcomes of these models are provided with a means for recourse. To this end, there has been a growing body of research... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Outcome or Result

August 2023 (Revised December 2023)
Case

Automating Morality: Ethics for Intelligent Machines

By: Joseph L. Badaracco Jr. and Tom Quinn

As autonomy became a more significant part of modern life – most notably in autonomous vehicles (AVs), such as Teslas – ethical debates about whether and how to impart ethics to machines heated up. Utilitarians pointed out that autonomous vehicles crashed much less... View Details

Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Judgments; Fairness; Moral Sensibility; Values and Beliefs; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Disruptive Innovation; Technology Adoption; Risk and Uncertainty; Cognition and Thinking; Technological Innovation; Auto Industry; Technology Industry; Africa; Asia; Europe; North and Central America; Oceania; South America

August 2023 (Revised January 2024)
Supplement

Arla Foods: Data-Driven Decarbonization (A)

By: Michael Parzen, Michael W. Toffel, Amram Migdal and Susan Pinckney

Arla implemented a data-based price incentive system to measure, track, and influence climate friendly changes to reduce CO2 emissions across the world’s fourth largest dairy cooperative. View Details

August 2023 (Revised March 2024)
Case

Arla Foods: Data-Driven Decarbonization (A)

By: Michael Parzen, Michael W. Toffel, Susan Pinckney and Amram Migdal

The case describes Arla’s history, in particular its climate change mitigation efforts, and how it implemented a price incentive system to motivate individual farms to implement scope 1 greenhouse gas emissions mitigation measures and receive a higher milk price. The... View Details

August 2023 (Revised January 2024)
Supplement

Arla Foods: Data-Driven Decarbonization (B)

By: Michael Parzen, Michael W. Toffel, Susan Pinckney and Amram Migdal

The case describes Arla’s history, in particular its climate change mitigation efforts, and how it implemented a price incentive system to motivate individual farms to implement scope 1 greenhouse gas emissions mitigation measures and receive a higher milk price. The... View Details

August 2023
Case

Constellation Pharmaceuticals: Corporate Development at a Novel Therapeutic Company

By: Satish Tadikonda and Brad Prosek

Constellation Pharmaceuticals was a company focused on epigenetic therapies for cancer patients. Despite a promising start and an early deal with a leading biopharma company, the company weathered twin setbacks in the end of a major research collaboration and the... View Details

Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Health Care and Treatment; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Research and Development; Business Strategy; Partners and Partnerships; Goals and Objectives; Pharmaceutical Industry; United States

August 2023
Case

Stay or Go? Sarah Reynolds at Kensington Partners

By: David G. Fubini, Amr Seifeldin and Patrick Sanguineti

Sarah Reynolds, a Partner at the global Kensington Partners strategy consulting firm, has headed the firm's Telecommunications Group for a few years. Thanks to her stellar track record with clients, she has brought the group, and herself, a range of accolades and... View Details

Keywords: Consulting; Consulting Firms; Client Service; Career Management; Success; Time Management; Decision Choices and Conditions; Personal Development and Career

August 2023 (Revised May 2024)
Case

Dicerna Pharmaceuticals: Decision Making in Clinical Trial Design and Operations

By: Satish Tadikonda and Amanda McEwen

The success or failure of Dicerna Pharmaceuticals (Dicerna) as an emerging pharmaceutical company would likely hinge on its lead drug candidate Nedosiran and the company’s ability to see it successfully through clinical development. Ralf Rosskamp, Chief Medical... View Details

Keywords: Business Strategy; Health Testing and Trials; Product Development; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Pharmaceutical Industry

August 2023
Case

Kariyer.net: Recruiting AI

By: Shunyuan Zhang, Fares Khrais and Namrata Arora

In 2017, Fatih Uysal (AMP 2021) became CEO of Kariyer.net. By then, the business was already the industry leading online job board in Turkey. However, faced with stalling growth, a turbulent macroenvironment, and growing competition from international players, Uysal... View Details

August 2023
Case

The Ethical Tightrope: When to Disclose the AI Shortcut

By: David G. Fubini, William Fubini and Patrick Sanguineti

In this short vignette on ethics in consulting, John Child, a new Associate at a prestigious firm who is eager to impress, decides to use an AI tool to expedite his analysis and craft his presentation due to a short project timeframe. Feeling uneasy about his decision... View Details

Keywords: Ethics; Personal Development and Career; Decisions; Consulting Industry

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