Publications

March–April 2015
Article

The Almighty Ruble

By: Debora L. Spar

At 1 AM Moscow time on December 16, Russia's central bank announced a massive hike in the country's interest rate, from 10.5% to 17%. It's not clear how Russian leader Vladimir Putin and his colleagues could realistically have expected to achieve anything by hiking the... View Details

Keywords: Monetary Policy; Economy; Policy; Currency; Interest Rates; Sovereign Finance; Russia

2021
Working Paper

Stock Investors' Returns Are Exaggerated

By: Jesse M. Fried, Paul Ma and Charles C.Y. Wang

The stock market generates less wealth than it appears. We show that total shareholder return (TSR), the standard measure of stock investor performance, substantially exaggerates returns earned by these investors in aggregate, and thus by most investors. The main... View Details

Keywords: All-shareholder Returns; Capital Flows; Dividend Reinvestment; Equity Premium; Total Shareholder Returns; Stocks; Investment Return; Market Timing

SSRN

Article

The Functional Alibi

By: Anat Keinan, Ran Kivetz and Oded Netzer

Spending money on hedonic luxuries often seems wasteful, irrational, and even immoral. We propose that adding a small utilitarian feature to a luxury product can serve as a functional alibi, justifying the indulgent purchase and reducing indulgence guilt. We... View Details

Keywords: Consumer Behavior; Product Marketing

2010
Chapter

The Euro as a Reserve Currency for Global Investors

By: Luis M. Viceira and Ricardo Gimeno

This article explores the demand for the euro for risk management purposes and the evidence of stock market integration in the euro area. We define a reserve currency as one that investors demand either because it helps them hedge real interest risk and inflation risk,... View Details

Keywords: Volatility; Inflation and Deflation; Capital Markets; Currency; Stocks; Financial Markets; Financing and Loans; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Risk Management

November 2017 (Revised August 2018)
Case

Fair Value Accounting at Noble Group (A)

By: Siko Sikochi, Suraj Srinivasan and Quinn Pitcher

Noble Group was a large commodities trader based in Hong Kong and listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange. In 2012, Noble shifted its business strategy towards an asset-light model. Under this model, Noble did not own mines or farms to produce commodities but built... View Details

Keywords: Fair Value Accounting; Policy; Goods and Commodities; Contracts; Valuation

Article

Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?

By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Robert L. Winkler

We consider two ways to aggregate expert opinions using simple averages: averaging probabilities and averaging quantiles. We examine analytical properties of these forecasts and compare their ability to harness the wisdom of the crowd. In terms of location, the two... View Details

Keywords: Probability Forecasts; Quantile Forecasts; Expert Combination; Linear Opinion Pooling; Forecasting and Prediction

January 2024
Article

Cost of Exempting Sole Orphan Drugs from Medicare Negotiation

By: Matthew Vogel, Olivia Zhao, William B. Feldman, Amitabh Chandra, Aaron S. Kesselheim and Benjamin N. Rome

Importance: The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) requires Medicare to negotiate prices for some high-spending drugs but exempts drugs approved solely for the treatment of a single rare disease.
Objective: To estimate Medicare spending and global... View Details

Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Insurance; Price; Health Industry

June 2020 (Revised October 2020)
Case

Muddy Waters vs. eHealth: The Debate of a 'Lifetime'

By: Jonas Heese and Cristo Liautaud

In May 2020, an analyst was assessing eHealth’s performance. eHealth was an online / tele-sales broker of health insurance products. The stock had recently hit all-time highs, closing at a peak of $146 on March 4, 2020. But now, May 4, 2020, eHealth traded at $103. The... View Details

Keywords: Revenue Recognition; Health; Insurance; Online Technology; Insurance Industry

June 2002 (Revised June 2014)
Case

The Netherlands: Is the Polder Model Sinking?

By: Huw Pill, Marie-Laure Y Goepfer, Mathijs Robbens and Ingrid Vogel

The Netherlands suffered economic crisis in the late 1970s and early 1980s, despite (or perhaps because of) its access to North Sea gas. In response to mounting inflation and unemployment, a tripartite agreement between employers, unions, and government was reached in... View Details

Keywords: Macroeconomics; Labor Unions; Netherlands

Article

How to Make the Other Side Play Fair: The Final-Offer Arbitration Challenge Gives Negotiators a Valuable New Tool

By: Max H. Bazerman and Daniel Kahneman

In legal disputes, contested insurance claims, and similarly adversarial negotiations, one party is likely to open with an inflated claim or a lowball offer. And if the other side’s position is unreasonable, it may make little sense to be reasonable yourself. But if... View Details

Keywords: Negotiation Tactics; Negotiation Offer

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May 2023
Article

Decarbonizing Health Care: Engaging Leaders in Change

By: Vivian S. Lee, Kathy Gerwig, Emily Hough, Kedar Mate, Robert Biggio and Robert S. Kaplan

Health care leaders are often surprised to learn that their operations contribute significantly to a warming climate. In addition to their roles as responders to and victims of extreme weather events, health care organizations have an obligation to reduce... View Details

Keywords: Health Care; Decarbonization; Carbon Emissions; Net-zero Emissions; Climate Change; Health Care and Treatment; Health Industry

02 Jan 2024
Research & Ideas

10 Trends to Watch in 2024

The lightning-fast ascent of generative AI isn’t the only sea change on the horizon for businesses in the new year. The global economy is in flux as war, climate change, trade issues, and infrastructure problems demand attention. Many companies continue to struggle to... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne

2018
Working Paper

Is Overconfidence a Motivated Bias? Experimental Evidence

By: Jennifer M. Logg, Uriel Haran and Don A. Moore

Are overconfident beliefs driven by the motivation to view oneself positively? We test the relationship between motivation and overconfidence using two distinct, but often conflated, measures: better-than-average (BTA) beliefs and overplacement. Our results suggest... View Details

Keywords: Self-perception; Overconfidence; Motivation; Better-Than-Average Effect; Specifically; Personal Characteristics; Perception; Motivation and Incentives; Cognition and Thinking

SSRN

2018
Working Paper

Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors

By: Luis M. Viceira and Zixuan (Kevin) Wang

This paper conducts a theoretical and empirical investigation of global portfolio diversification for long-horizon investors in the presence of permanent cash flow shocks and transitory discount rate shocks to asset prices and returns. An increase in the cross-country... View Details

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Risk and Uncertainty; Diversification; Capital Markets; Global Range

25 Jan 2022
Research & Ideas

More Proof That Money Can Buy Happiness (or a Life with Less Stress)

particularly important now, as inflation eats into the ability of many Americans to afford basic necessities like food and gas, and COVID-19 continues to disrupt the job... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding

March 2005 (Revised July 2007)
Case

Capital Controls in Chile in the 1990s (A)

By: Laura Alfaro, Rafael M. Di Tella and Ingrid Vogel

In 1991, Chile adopted a framework of capital controls focused on reducing the massive flows of foreign investment coming into the country as international interest rates remained low. Capital inflows threatened the Central Bank's ability to manage the exchange rate... View Details

Keywords: Developing Countries and Economies; Economic Growth; Financial Crisis; Capital; Governance Controls; Business and Government Relations; Chile