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  • All HBS Web  (3,384)
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    • Research  (2,490)
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Show Results For

  • All HBS Web  (3,384)
    • News  (517)
    • Research  (2,490)
    • Events  (43)
    • Multimedia  (18)
  • Faculty Publications  (1,611)
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  • Article

Predicting Soccer Matches after Unconscious and Conscious Thought as a Function of Expertise

Keywords: Cognition and Thinking
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Dijksterhuis, Ap, Maarten W. Bos, Andries Van der Leij, and Rick B. Van Baaren. "Predicting Soccer Matches after Unconscious and Conscious Thought as a Function of Expertise." Psychological Science 20, no. 11 (November 2009): 1381–1387.
  • 2011
  • Article

A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction

By: Eyal Ert, Ido Erev and Alvin E. Roth
Two independent, but related, choice prediction competitions are organized that focus on behavior in simple two-person extensive form games: one focuses on predicting the choices of the first mover and the other on predicting the choices of the second mover. The... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions; Competition; Motivation and Incentives; Game Theory; Fairness
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Ert, Eyal, Ido Erev, and Alvin E. Roth. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction." Special Issue on Predicting Behavior in Games. Games 2, no. 3 (September 2011): 257–276.
  • 2018
  • Working Paper

Us and Them: Predicting Firm Stock Performance via Social Media Sentiment about Competitors

By: Frank Nagle
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Nagle, Frank. "Us and Them: Predicting Firm Stock Performance via Social Media Sentiment about Competitors." Working Paper, November 2018.
  • August 2006
  • Article

Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?

By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler
Many studies find that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these findings may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's (2003, Journal of Finance... View Details
Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Fairness; Managerial Roles; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Equity; Bonds; Financial Markets; Investment; Capital Markets; Borrowing and Debt; Investment Return
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Baker, Malcolm, Ryan Taliaferro, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?" Journal of Finance 61, no. 4 (August 2006): 1711–1730. (Section V of "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 10823, contains additional analyses.)
  • July 1981
  • Article

On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part I: An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts

By: Robert C. Merton
Keywords: Investment; Performance; Theory; Value; Forecasting and Prediction; Markets
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Merton, Robert C. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part I: An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts." Journal of Business 54, no. 3 (July 1981): 363–406.
  • 2025
  • Working Paper

Cash Flow Volatility, Return Predictability and Stock Price Decompositions: Why You Should Scale Prices by Trend Cash Flows

By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
We address two inconvenient facts in asset pricing: (i) valuation ratios are often more related to future cash flows than to returns, and (ii) they mostly fail to predict returns. We show that these issues arise because stock prices are scaled by cash flows that... View Details
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Hillenbrand, Sebastian, and Odhrain McCarthy. "Cash Flow Volatility, Return Predictability and Stock Price Decompositions: Why You Should Scale Prices by Trend Cash Flows." Working Paper, June 2025.
  • June 2023
  • Article

When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making

By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being employed to assist human decision makers, it becomes critical to provide these decision makers with relevant inputs which can help them decide if and how to incorporate model predictions into their decision... View Details
Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Decision Making
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McGrath, Sean, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making." Transactions on Machine Learning Research (TMLR) (June 2023).
  • 2020
  • Conference Presentation

Semantic Embeddings of Verbal Descriptions Predict Action Similarity Judgments

By: L. Tarhan, J. De Freitas, G. A. Alvarez and T. Konkle
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Tarhan, L., J. De Freitas, G. A. Alvarez, and T. Konkle. "Semantic Embeddings of Verbal Descriptions Predict Action Similarity Judgments." Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Vision Sciences Society, St. Pete Beach, FL, 2020.
  • Article

The Critical Role of Second-order Normative Beliefs in Predicting Energy Conservation

By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Oliver P. Hauser, Julia D. O'Brien, Erin Sherman and Adam D. Galinsky
Sustaining large-scale public goods requires individuals to make environmentally friendly decisions today to benefit future generations. Recent research suggests that second-order normative beliefs are more powerful predictors of behaviour than first-order personal... View Details
Keywords: Climate Change; Energy; Environmental Sustainability; Household; Behavior; Values and Beliefs; Forecasting and Prediction
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Jachimowicz, Jon M., Oliver P. Hauser, Julia D. O'Brien, Erin Sherman, and Adam D. Galinsky. "The Critical Role of Second-order Normative Beliefs in Predicting Energy Conservation." Nature Human Behaviour 2, no. 10 (October 2018): 757–764.
  • May 2022
  • Article

Coins for Bombs: The Predictive Ability of On-Chain Transfers for Terrorist Attacks

By: Dan Amiram, Evgeny Lyandres and Daniel Rabetti
This study examines whether we can learn from the behavior of blockchain-based transfers to predict the financing of terrorist attacks. We exploit blockchain transaction transparency to map millions of transfers for hundreds of large on-chain service providers. The... View Details
Keywords: Blockchain; Bitcoin; Accounting; AI and Machine Learning; National Security; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms
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Amiram, Dan, Evgeny Lyandres, and Daniel Rabetti. "Coins for Bombs: The Predictive Ability of On-Chain Transfers for Terrorist Attacks." Journal of Accounting Research 60, no. 2 (May 2022): 427–466.
  • 02 Nov 2006
  • Working Paper Summaries

Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning

Keywords: by Rogelio Oliva & Noel H. Watson
  • 2025
  • Working Paper

Government-Brokerage Analysts and Market Stabilization: Evidence from China

By: Sheng Cao, Xianjie He, Charles C.Y. Wang and Huifang Yin
We show analysts at government-controlled brokerage firms serve as a market stabilization tool in China. Using earnings forecasts from 2005–2019, we find government-brokerage analysts issue relatively more optimistic—yet less accurate and timely—forecasts during... View Details
Keywords: Sell-side Analysts; Forecast Optimism; Forecast Accuracy; Government Incentives; Market Stabilization; Government Ownership; Coordinated Economies; Stocks; Forecasting and Prediction; Business and Government Relations; Emerging Markets
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Cao, Sheng, Xianjie He, Charles C.Y. Wang, and Huifang Yin. "Government-Brokerage Analysts and Market Stabilization: Evidence from China." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 18-095, March 2018. (Revised March 2025.)
  • Article

Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?

By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Robert L. Winkler
We consider two ways to aggregate expert opinions using simple averages: averaging probabilities and averaging quantiles. We examine analytical properties of these forecasts and compare their ability to harness the wisdom of the crowd. In terms of location, the two... View Details
Keywords: Probability Forecasts; Quantile Forecasts; Expert Combination; Linear Opinion Pooling; Forecasting and Prediction
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Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Robert L. Winkler. "Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?" Management Science 59, no. 7 (July 2013): 1594–1611.
  • December 2005
  • Article

Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior

By: Greg Allenby, Geraldine Fennel, Joel Huber, Thomas Eagle, Tim Gilbride, Jaehwan Kim, Peter Lenk, Rich Johnson, Bryan Orme, Elie Ofek, Thomas Otter and Joan Walker
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Markets; Behavior
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Allenby, Greg, Geraldine Fennel, Joel Huber, Thomas Eagle, Tim Gilbride, Jaehwan Kim, Peter Lenk, Rich Johnson, Bryan Orme, Elie Ofek, Thomas Otter, and Joan Walker. "Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior." Marketing Letters 16, nos. 3/4 (December 2005).
  • 2013
  • Working Paper

Appendix to 'Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity'

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
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Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Appendix to 'Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity'." Working Paper, September 2013.
  • 30 May 2023
  • Research & Ideas

Can AI Predict Whether Shoppers Would Pick Crest or Colgate?

data.” The researchers also found that telling GPT that it had purchased a product before, such as yogurt, and how much of the product the “customer” already had at home, affected purchasing decisions in View Details
Keywords: by Kristen Senz
  • February 2022
  • Teaching Note

Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI

By: Navid Mojir
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 521-053. View Details
Keywords: Monetization Strategy; Artificial Intelligence; Forecasting and Prediction; Applications and Software; Technological Innovation; Marketing; Segmentation; AI and Machine Learning; Construction Industry; Turkey
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Mojir, Navid. "Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 522-069, February 2022.
  • 2014
  • Working Paper

Amount and Diversity of Emotional Expression on Facebook Predicts Life Satisfaction around the World

By: A. Kogan, F. Zhang, R. Sun, E. Simon-Thomas, P. Piff, S. Fan, J. Gruber, J. Quoidbach, M. I. Norton, C. Gronin, P. Fleming, D. Keltner and A.W. Brooks
Citation
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Kogan, A., F. Zhang, R. Sun, E. Simon-Thomas, P. Piff, S. Fan, J. Gruber, J. Quoidbach, M. I. Norton, C. Gronin, P. Fleming, D. Keltner, and A.W. Brooks. "Amount and Diversity of Emotional Expression on Facebook Predicts Life Satisfaction around the World." Working Paper, 2014.
  • 1990
  • Thesis

Parameter Prediction and Visualization to Aid the Decision-Making Process in an Automated Fabrication Environment

By: Stefan Thomke
Citation
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Thomke, Stefan. "Parameter Prediction and Visualization to Aid the Decision-Making Process in an Automated Fabrication Environment." Thesis, 1990.
  • Article

Learning and Equilibrium as Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games

By: Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, R. Slonim and Greg Barron
Keywords: Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Outcome or Result
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Erev, Ido, Alvin E. Roth, R. Slonim, and Greg Barron. "Learning and Equilibrium as Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games." Special Issue on Behavioral Game Theory. Economic Theory 33, no. 1 (October 2007): 29–51.
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