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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(3,292)
- News (518)
- Research (2,501)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (18)
- Faculty Publications (1,608)
- 9 Dec 2016
- Conference Presentation
Discovering Unknown Unknowns of Predictive Models
By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Ece Kamar, Rich Caruana and Eric Horvitz
Lakkaraju, Himabindu, Ece Kamar, Rich Caruana, and Eric Horvitz. "Discovering Unknown Unknowns of Predictive Models." Paper presented at the 30th Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), Workshop on Reliable Machine Learning in the Wild, Barcelona, Spain, December 9, 2016.
- November 1974 (Revised November 1977)
- Background Note
Developing Forecasts with the Aid of Regression Analysis
By: Paul A. Vatter
Vatter, Paul A. "Developing Forecasts with the Aid of Regression Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 175-105, November 1974. (Revised November 1977.)
- Article
Extension Request Avoidance Predicts Greater Time Stress Among Women
By: Ashley V. Whillans, Jaewon Yoon, Aurora Turek and Grant E. Donnelly
In nine studies using archival data, surveys, and experiments, we identify a factor that predicts gender differences in time stress and burnout. Across academic and professional settings, women are less likely to ask for more time when working under adjustable... View Details
Whillans, Ashley V., Jaewon Yoon, Aurora Turek, and Grant E. Donnelly. "Extension Request Avoidance Predicts Greater Time Stress Among Women." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, no. 45 (November 9, 2021).
- Article
The Relation between Analysts' Long-Term Earnings Forecasts and Stock Performance following Equity Offerings
By: P. Dechow, A. Hutton and R. Sloan
Dechow, P., A. Hutton, and R. Sloan. "The Relation between Analysts' Long-Term Earnings Forecasts and Stock Performance following Equity Offerings." Contemporary Accounting Research 17, no. 3 (Fall 2000).
- Article
On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills
By: Robert C. Merton and Roy D. Henriksson
Merton, Robert C., and Roy D. Henriksson. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills." Journal of Business 54, no. 4 (October 1981): 513–533.
- January 1982
- Case
Unitrode Corp. (C): Sales Forecasting of Major Procurements
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Unitrode Corp. (C): Sales Forecasting of Major Procurements." Harvard Business School Case 182-180, January 1982.
- October 2014
- Supplement
Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 Excel Supplement
By: Mihir Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer
This is the Excel Supplement to Teaching Note 215-022: Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) - (B). View Details
Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; United States; Republic of Ireland
- 1992
- Chapter
Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market
By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; International Finance; Currency Exchange Rate; Asset Pricing; Forecasting and Prediction; Policy
Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market." In International Business Reader, edited by D. Duta. London: Oxford University Press, 1992. (Revised from IMF Working Paper No. 90/43 and NBER Working Paper No. 3470, October 1990.)
- 2018
- Working Paper
Averaging Probability Forecasts: Back to the Future
By: Robert L. Winkler, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. and Victor Richmond R. Jose
The use and aggregation of probability forecasts in practice is on the rise. In this position piece, we explore some recent, and not so recent, developments concerning the use of probability forecasts in decision-making. Despite these advances, challenges still exist.... View Details
Keywords: Probability Forecast; Forecast Combination; Forecast Evaluation; Decision Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Making; Analysis
Winkler, Robert L., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., and Victor Richmond R. Jose. "Averaging Probability Forecasts: Back to the Future." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-039, October 2018.
- Article
A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction
By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert and Alvin E. Roth
A choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from experience in market entry games (http://sites.google.com/site/gpredcomp/ and http://www.mdpi.com/si/games/predict-behavior/). The competition is based on two experiments: An estimation... View Details
Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Market Entry and Exit; Game Theory; Behavior; Competition
Erev, Ido, Eyal Ert, and Alvin E. Roth. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction." Special Issue on Predicting Behavior in Games. Games 1, no. 2 (June 2010): 117–136.
- 2025
- Working Paper
Enhancing Treatment Effect Prediction on Privacy-Protected Data: An Honest Post-Processing Approach
By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
As firms increasingly rely on customer data for personalization, concerns over privacy and regulatory compliance have grown. Local Differential Privacy (LDP) offers strong individual-level protection by injecting noise into data before collection. While... View Details
Keywords: Targeted Intervention; Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation; Differential Privacy; Honest Estimation; Post-processing; Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior; Marketing
Huang, Ta-Wei, and Eva Ascarza. "Enhancing Treatment Effect Prediction on Privacy-Protected Data: An Honest Post-Processing Approach." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-034, December 2023. (Revised March 2025.)
- Article
Beyond Dislike: Blatant Dehumanization Predicts Teacher Discrimination
By: Emile Bruneau, Hanna Szekeres, Nour Kteily, Linda Tropp and Anna Kende
Bruneau, Emile, Hanna Szekeres, Nour Kteily, Linda Tropp, and Anna Kende. "Beyond Dislike: Blatant Dehumanization Predicts Teacher Discrimination." Group Processes & Intergroup Relations 23, no. 4 (June 2020): 560–577.
- Article
Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates
By: Peter R. Joos, Joseph D. Piotroski and Suraj Srinivasan
We use a dataset of sell-side analysts' scenario-based valuation estimates to examine whether analysts reliably assess the risk surrounding a firm's fundamental value. We find that the spread in analysts' state-side contingent valuations captures the riskiness of... View Details
Keywords: Analyst Forecasts; Scenarios; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction
Joos, Peter R., Joseph D. Piotroski, and Suraj Srinivasan. "Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates." Journal of Financial Economics 121, no. 3 (September 2016): 645–663.
- September 2021
- Article
Income More Reliably Predicts Frequent Than Intense Happiness
By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Ruo Mo, Adam Eric Greenberg, Bertus Jeronimus and Ashley V. Whillans
There is widespread consensus that income and subjective well-being are linked, but when and why they are connected is subject to ongoing debate. We draw on prior research that distinguishes between the frequency and intensity of happiness to suggest that higher income... View Details
Jachimowicz, Jon M., Ruo Mo, Adam Eric Greenberg, Bertus Jeronimus, and Ashley V. Whillans. "Income More Reliably Predicts Frequent Than Intense Happiness." Social Psychological & Personality Science 12, no. 7 (September 2021): 1294–1306.
- May 2024
- Article
Relational Attributions for One’s Own Resilience Predict Compassion for Others
By: Rachel Ruttan, Ting Zhang, Sivahn Barli and Katherine DeCelles
Existing work on attribution theory distinguishes between external and internal attributions (i.e., “I overcame adversity due to luck” vs. “my own effort”). We introduce the construct of relational resilience attributions (i.e., “due to help from other people”) as a... View Details
Ruttan, Rachel, Ting Zhang, Sivahn Barli, and Katherine DeCelles. "Relational Attributions for One’s Own Resilience Predict Compassion for Others." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 126, no. 5 (May 2024): 818–840.
- 09 Dec 2015
- Research Event
How Do You Predict Demand and Set Prices For Products Never Sold Before?
predictive and prescriptive analytics can be combined to develop a tactical decision-making tool that makes a big impact on the bottom line. For details about the research and... View Details
- December 1988 (Revised May 1989)
- Background Note
PROFORMA: An Aid for Analyzing Accounting Statements for the Purposes of Constructing Proformas and Forecasting
By: John E. Bishop
Bishop, John E. "PROFORMA: An Aid for Analyzing Accounting Statements for the Purposes of Constructing Proformas and Forecasting." Harvard Business School Background Note 189-108, December 1988. (Revised May 1989.)
- January 2021
- Article
How Personality and Policy Predict Pandemic Behavior: Understanding Sheltering-in-Place in 55 Countries at the Onset of COVID-19
By: Friedrich M. Götz, Andrés Gvirtz, Adam D. Galinsky and Jon M. Jachimowicz
The spread of COVID-19 within any given country or community at the onset of the pandemic depended in part on the sheltering-in-place rate of its citizens. The pandemic led us to revisit one of psychology’s most fundamental and most basic questions in a high-stakes... View Details
Keywords: COVID; COVID-19; Pandemic; Shelter-in-place; Personality; Government; Interactionism; Health Pandemics; Behavior; Personal Characteristics; Policy; Governance Compliance
Götz, Friedrich M., Andrés Gvirtz, Adam D. Galinsky, and Jon M. Jachimowicz. "How Personality and Policy Predict Pandemic Behavior: Understanding Sheltering-in-Place in 55 Countries at the Onset of COVID-19." American Psychologist 76, no. 1 (January 2021): 39–49.
- October 2014
- Supplement
Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 Powerpoint Supplement
By: Mihir Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer
This is the PowerPoint supplement to the teaching note: Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) - (B), number 215-022. View Details
Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland
Desai, Mihir, and Elizabeth A. Meyer. "Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 Powerpoint Supplement." Harvard Business School PowerPoint Supplement 215-023, October 2014.