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      • Faculty Publications  (276)

      Decision AnalysisRemove Decision Analysis →

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      • October 2000 (Revised March 2003)
      • Case

      Merck & Company: Evaluating a Drug Licensing Opportunity

      By: Richard S. Ruback and David B Krieger
      This explores the valuation of an opportunity to license a compound before it enters clinical trials. Describes Merck's decision tree evaluation process is presented. Information required to evaluate a specific licensing opportunity is provided, including the costs of... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Making; Cost vs Benefits; Opportunities; Valuation; Outcome or Result; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Ruback, Richard S., and David B Krieger. "Merck & Company: Evaluating a Drug Licensing Opportunity." Harvard Business School Case 201-023, October 2000. (Revised March 2003.)
      • May 2000 (Revised January 2003)
      • Case

      Health Development Corporation

      By: Richard S. Ruback
      Health Development Corp. (HDC) owns and operates health clubs in the Greater Boston area. HDC engaged a local investment banker to explore a sale of the company. The most likely buyer views HDC's prior purchase of real estate as a negative. HDC's management is... View Details
      Keywords: Cash Flow; Property; Business Exit or Shutdown; Valuation; Value; Decisions; Health Industry; Boston
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      Ruback, Richard S. "Health Development Corporation." Harvard Business School Case 200-049, May 2000. (Revised January 2003.)
      • April 2000
      • Case

      Financing of Project Achieve, The (A)

      By: Mihir A. Desai
      An entrepreneur is forced to analyze the tradeoffs between different equity providers through a detailed analysis of venture financing terms and cash flow forecasts. The founder of a Web-based IMS for schools must negotiate a term sheet, determine funding needs, value... View Details
      Keywords: Business Startups; Forecasting and Prediction; Venture Capital; Cash Flow; Equity; Negotiation Deal; Valuation
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      Desai, Mihir A. "Financing of Project Achieve, The (A)." Harvard Business School Case 200-042, April 2000.
      • February 2000 (Revised April 2001)
      • Case

      CNET 2000

      By: Thomas R. Eisenmann and Pauline M Fischer
      CNET's managers explain the strategic analysis that led to their decision to increase their annual marketing budget from $1 million to $100 million. CNET is an online information intermediary that helps consumers make purchase decisions about PC hardware and software,... View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Corporate Strategy; Budgets and Budgeting; Financial Strategy; Decisions; Growth and Development; Customer Focus and Relationships; Business Divisions; Marketing Strategy; Distribution Channels; Consumer Behavior; Online Technology; Information Technology Industry
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      Eisenmann, Thomas R., and Pauline M Fischer. "CNET 2000." Harvard Business School Case 800-284, February 2000. (Revised April 2001.)
      • November 1999 (Revised July 2003)
      • Case

      Pre-Paid Legal Services, Inc.

      By: Paul M. Healy and Jacob Cohen
      Pre-Paid Legal Services' business model reveals two key issues--managing the sales force and sales growth and managing claims. Students analyze the economics of the business and consider how to measure firm performance, how to evaluate and reward the sales force, and... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Salesforce Management; Marketing Strategy; Accrual Accounting; Business Cycles; Forecasting and Prediction; Insurance; Business Growth and Maturation; Insurance Industry
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      Healy, Paul M., and Jacob Cohen. "Pre-Paid Legal Services, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 100-037, November 1999. (Revised July 2003.)
      • October 1999 (Revised July 2002)
      • Case

      WingspanBank.com (A)

      By: Sandra J. Sucher and Daniel Galvin
      The case describes the new product development process for WingspanBank.com, an Internet-only financial services "infomediary" created by a team from Bank One's First USA division. The creation of the bank is described from concept development to prelaunch decision... View Details
      Keywords: Business Startups; Decision Making; Information Management; Management Practices and Processes; Managerial Roles; Product Development; Performance Consistency; Competitive Advantage; Internet; Financial Services Industry; Web Services Industry; United States
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      Sucher, Sandra J., and Daniel Galvin. "WingspanBank.com (A)." Harvard Business School Case 600-035, October 1999. (Revised July 2002.)
      • October 1997 (Revised November 2000)
      • Background Note

      Note on Marketing Strategy

      By: Robert J. Dolan
      Describes the major elements of marketing strategy: the decisions to be made and the underlying analysis to support that decision making. View Details
      Keywords: Marketing Strategy
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      Dolan, Robert J. "Note on Marketing Strategy." Harvard Business School Background Note 598-061, October 1997. (Revised November 2000.)
      • September 1997 (Revised February 2000)
      • Exercise

      Exercises in Option Pricing and Real Option Analysis

      By: Benjamin C. Esty
      Contains five problems, one each on basic option pricing, abandonment value, the value of waiting to invest, contingent claims analysis (equity as a call option), and strategic decision making in an option framework. The goal is for students to recognize option value... View Details
      Keywords: Stock Options; Price
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      Esty, Benjamin C. "Exercises in Option Pricing and Real Option Analysis." Harvard Business School Exercise 298-053, September 1997. (Revised February 2000.)
      • February 1996 (Revised February 1997)
      • Case

      America Online, Inc.

      By: Amy P. Hutton and Krishna G. Palepu
      America Online's (AOL) stock price has soared nearly 2,000% since its IPO. However, there is considerable disagreement among analysts regarding the future prospects of AOL. Although many analysts are bullish on the stock, short sellers have sold around 7 million... View Details
      Keywords: Cost Accounting; Analysis; Stocks; Decision Choices and Conditions; Financial Statements; Business Strategy; Web Services Industry
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      Hutton, Amy P., and Krishna G. Palepu. "America Online, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 196-130, February 1996. (Revised February 1997.)
      • Article

      The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis

      By: S. N. Kaplan and R. S. Ruback
      Keywords: Valuation; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction; Theory
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      Kaplan, S. N., and R. S. Ruback. "The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis." Journal of Finance 50, no. 4 (September 1995).
      • October 1993 (Revised August 1996)
      • Background Note

      Forecasting with Regression Analysis

      By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
      Provides an example of regression in one of its most important roles. Relating probabilistic forecasts based on past data to decision analysis. View Details
      Keywords: Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods
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      Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Forecasting with Regression Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 894-007, October 1993. (Revised August 1996.)
      • October 1992 (Revised October 1993)
      • Case

      Lehigh Valley Industries (LVI)

      By: Kim B. Clark
      Describes a situation confronting a manufacturer of forged parts that has recently undergone a leveraged buyout. The company is under pressure to improve operating performance dramatically. Describes several options designed to improve performance, including adding... View Details
      Keywords: Management Practices and Processes; Product; Production; Performance Improvement; Capital; Manufacturing Industry; Industrial Products Industry
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      Clark, Kim B. "Lehigh Valley Industries (LVI)." Harvard Business School Case 693-040, October 1992. (Revised October 1993.)
      • September 1992
      • Case

      Vintage Directions, Inc.

      By: Howard H. Stevenson
      Focuses on the problem of determining whether to continue with a start-up after the first market test. The company has seen product success but is far from break-even and needs additional financing. Focuses on opportunity analysis and the use of market data to assess... View Details
      Keywords: Product Launch; Product Marketing; Marketing Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Business Startups; Business or Company Management
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      Stevenson, Howard H. "Vintage Directions, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 393-043, September 1992.
      • February 1992 (Revised April 1993)
      • Case

      Acid Rain: The Southern Co. (A)

      By: Forest L. Reinhardt
      The Southern Co., an electric utility, is planning its compliance with the 1990 amendments to the Clean Air Act. The Act established a system of tradeable permits for sulfur dioxide emissions. The company must decide whether to install pollution control equipment and... View Details
      Keywords: Energy Generation; Business Strategy; Environmental Sustainability; Cost vs Benefits; Financial Management; Strategic Planning; Investment Return; Government Legislation; Wastes and Waste Processing; Utilities Industry; Energy Industry; United States
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      Reinhardt, Forest L. "Acid Rain: The Southern Co. (A)." Harvard Business School Case 792-060, February 1992. (Revised April 1993.)
      • April 1991 (Revised October 1993)
      • Case

      Cat Fight in the Pet Food Industry (A)

      By: David J. Collis
      Describes the pet food industry in the mid-eighties prior to the breakout of a major competitive battle as manufacturers fight for share. Illustrates how when there are benefits to play in multiple markets, competitors will take action in one market to preserve their... View Details
      Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Markets; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Ownership Stake; Competition; Corporate Strategy; Food and Beverage Industry
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      Collis, David J. "Cat Fight in the Pet Food Industry (A)." Harvard Business School Case 391-189, April 1991. (Revised October 1993.)
      • Article

      Blind Spots in Strategic Decision Making: The Case of Competitor Analysis

      By: E. J. Zajac and M. H. Bazerman
      Keywords: Strategy; Decision Making
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      Zajac, E. J., and M. H. Bazerman. "Blind Spots in Strategic Decision Making: The Case of Competitor Analysis." Academy of Management Review 16, no. 1 (January 1991): 37–56. (To be reprinted in C.A. Maritan and M.A. Peteraf, Competitive Strategy, Edward Elgar Publishing Strategic Management series.)
      • June 1990 (Revised January 1993)
      • Case

      Dynatronics, Inc. (Abridged)

      By: Thomas R. Piper
      Provides an opportunity to evaluate an investment in a new product line in strategic, competitive, organizational, and economic terms. The economic analysis involves an estimation of the relevant cash flows and discounting them at an appropriate hurdle rate. View Details
      Keywords: Product; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Capital Budgeting
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      Piper, Thomas R. "Dynatronics, Inc. (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 290-064, June 1990. (Revised January 1993.)
      • May 1990
      • Background Note

      Conjoint Analysis: A Manager's Guide

      By: Robert J. Dolan
      Presents a non-technical description of the conjoint analysis methodology. Discusses the process by which such a study is done and cites areas of application. View Details
      Keywords: Marketing; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Dolan, Robert J. "Conjoint Analysis: A Manager's Guide." Harvard Business School Background Note 590-059, May 1990.
      • March 1990 (Revised May 1993)
      • Case

      USSR--1990

      By: Willis M. Emmons III
      Describes the political, economic, and social development of the USSR from 1921-90. Particular emphasis is placed on 1) institutional change, 2) the costs and benefits of central economic planning, and 3) the political economy of perestroika under Mikhail Gorbachev.... View Details
      Keywords: Country; Strategy; Cost vs Benefits; Change; Government and Politics; Russia
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      Emmons, Willis M., III. "USSR--1990." Harvard Business School Case 390-155, March 1990. (Revised May 1993.)
      • April 1989 (Revised August 1989)
      • Case

      Burlington Northern (A)

      By: Janice H. Hammond
      Describes the forces that led to the development of a logistics analysis program by the Burlington Northern Railroad. The first half of the case describes changes in industrial structure, technology, demographics, shipper practices, and government regulation that led... View Details
      Keywords: Change Management; Rail Transportation; Logistics; Rail Industry; United States
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      Hammond, Janice H. "Burlington Northern (A)." Harvard Business School Case 689-081, April 1989. (Revised August 1989.)
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