Publications

March 2003 (Revised January 2008)
Case

Northrop versus TRW

By: Carliss Y. Baldwin and James Quinn

TRW, a leading supplier of advanced technology products for the auto, defense, and aerospace markets, receives an unexpected stock-for-stock offer from defense company Northrop Grumman Corp. The $11.4 billion aggregate offer, which represents a 22% premium over the... View Details

Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Decision Choices and Conditions; Governing and Advisory Boards; Laws and Statutes; Negotiation Tactics; Valuation; Aerospace Industry; Auto Industry; Ohio

Research Summary

Current Research

I am interested in research on various topics in retail operations and supply chain management, including inventory management, product variety, distribution logistics, financial performance of retailers, and linking operational performance to... View Details

Article

Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?

By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Robert L. Winkler

We consider two ways to aggregate expert opinions using simple averages: averaging probabilities and averaging quantiles. We examine analytical properties of these forecasts and compare their ability to harness the wisdom of the crowd. In terms of location, the two... View Details

Keywords: Probability Forecasts; Quantile Forecasts; Expert Combination; Linear Opinion Pooling; Forecasting and Prediction

Purchase

August 2014
Article

Mortgage Convexity

By: Samuel G. Hanson

Most home mortgages in the United States are fixed-rate loans with an embedded prepayment option. When long-term rates decline, the effective duration of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) falls due to heightened refinancing expectations. I show that these changes in MBS... View Details

Keywords: Mortgages; Interest Rates; Volatility

October 2011
Article

The Surprising Power of Age-Dependent Taxes

By: Matthew C. Weinzierl

This article provides a new, empirically driven application of the dynamic Mirrleesian framework by studying a feasible and potentially powerful tax reform: age-dependent labor income taxation. I show analytically how age dependence improves policy on both the... View Details

Keywords: Taxation; Policy; Age; Income; Mathematical Methods; Welfare; United States

November 2018
Article

Global Evidence on Economic Preferences

By: Armin Falk, Anke Becker, Thomas Dohmen, Benjamin Enke, David Huffman and Uwe Sunde

This article studies the global variation in economic preferences. For this purpose, we present the Global Preference Survey (GPS), an experimentally validated survey data set of time preference, risk preference, positive and negative reciprocity, altruism, and trust... View Details

Keywords: Economic Preferences; Economics; Behavior; Surveys; Analytics and Data Science; Global Range

Article

Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts

By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, V.R.R. Jose and K. C. Lichtendahl

Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about... View Details

Keywords: Decision Analysis; Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Data and Data Sets

Purchase

October 2014
Article

Good Cop, Bad Cop: Complementarities Between Debt and Equity in Disciplining Management

By: Alexander Guembel and Lucy White

In this paper we examine how the quantity of information generated about firm prospects can be improved by splitting a firm's cash flow into a "safe" claim (debt) and a "risky" claim (equity). The former, being relatively insensitive to upside risk, provides a... View Details

Keywords: Information; Borrowing and Debt; Equity; Corporate Finance

Research Summary

Corporate Debt, Firm Size and Financial Fragility in Emerging Markets

By: Laura Alfaro

The post-Global Financial Crisis period shows a surge in corporate leverage in emerging markets and a number of countries with deteriorated corporate financial fragility indicators (Altman’s Z-score). Firm size plays a critical role in the relationship between... View Details

Research Summary

The Design of Mechanisms and Institutions

Professor Coughlan's research also investigates the design of public policy and collective choice institutions. His research publications have applied game theory, mechanism design, and laboratory experiments to explore incentives and outcomes under alternative legal,... View Details

May 2017
Article

Agent-based Modeling: A Guide for Social Psychologists

By: Joshua Conrad Jackson, David Rand, Kevin Lewis, Michael I. Norton and Kurt Gray

Agent-based modeling is a longstanding but underused method that allows researchers to simulate artificial worlds for hypothesis testing and theory building. Agent-based models (ABMs) offer unprecedented control and statistical power by allowing researchers to... View Details

Keywords: Social Psychology; Marketing; Mathematical Methods

Research Summary

"I Read Playboy for the Articles": Justifying and Rationalizing Questionable Preferences

When people behave in ways that might appear selfish, prejudiced or perverted, they engage a host of strategies designed to justify questionable behavior with rational excuses: “I hired my son because he’s more qualified.” “I promoted Ashley... View Details

Research Summary

Dynamic Demand Estimation in Platform and Two-Sided Markets

This paper develops techniques to structurally estimate consumer demand in general platform-intermediated and two-sided markets. By estimating both sides of the market simultaneously, the methodology presented here is able to (1) endogenize the utility of a platform as... View Details

Forthcoming
Article

What's My Employee Worth? The Effects of Salary Benchmarking

By: Zoë B. Cullen, Shengwu Li and Ricardo Perez-Truglia

While U.S. legislation prohibits employers from sharing information about their employees’ compensation with each other, companies are still allowed to acquire and use more aggregated data provided by third parties. Most medium and large firms report using this type... View Details

Keywords: Information Sharing; Wages; Policy; Compensation and Benefits

2025
Working Paper

Turning Points in Inflation: A Structural Breaks Approach with Micro Data

By: Alberto Cavallo and Gastón García Zavaleta

We introduce a novel methodology for detecting inflation turning points that combines high-frequency, disaggregated price data with standard structural break techniques to provide policymakers with more precise and timely signals of inflation dynamics. The methodology... View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Global Range; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Analysis; Price

1999
Working Paper

On the Formation and Structure of International Exchanges

We investigate the formation and structure of 248 financial exchanges throughout the world. First, we empirically analyze the determinants of exchange formation as well as the impact of exchange formation on the domestic country's economy. Second, conditional on... View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets

2015
Working Paper

The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications

By: Emil Siriwardane

I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics

SSRN

June 2012 (Revised March 2014)
Case

I Paid a Bribe (Dot) Com

By: Karthik Ramanna and Rachna Tahilyani

Anti-corruption web platform "ipaidabribe.com" leverages the transparency and anonymity of the Internet to encourage private citizens in India who have been the victims of corruption to self-report details of bribes paid, including the bribe amount, the name of the... View Details

Keywords: Crime and Corruption; Internet and the Web; Ethics; Service Industry; India