Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research

May 20, 2016
Comment

World Health Organization Lacks Leadership to Combat Pandemics

When it comes to emergency preparedness for pandemics, the World Health Organization is falling short. It has not provided prompt and clear leadership to the world in combating either the Ebola or Zika viruses. Its leadership has been low energy, its representatives... View Details

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November 2008
Journal Article

Can Research Committees Add Value for Investors? An Analysis of Lehman Brothers' Ten Uncommon Values® Recommendations

By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Yang Gui

Since 1949 Lehman Brothers has used an investment committee to select the top ten recommendations made by its analysts each year. We examine the performance of this committee's recommendations and find that on average its selections generated abnormal returns of 2.7%... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Financial Markets; Investment; Investment Return; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Performance Expectations; Groups and Teams; Research; Value Creation

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15 Mar 2011
First Look

First Look: March 15

effect on the investment of firms. High taxes will favor investment by firms that can finance internally. Using an international panel with many changes in payout taxes, we show that this prediction holds well. Payout taxes have a large... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

13 Oct 2010
First Look

First Look: October 13, 2010

fixed-pie perceptions by suggesting that disputants may prefer proposals that are perceived to be equally attractive to both parties (i.e., balanced) rather than one-sided, because balanced agreements are seen as more likely to be successfully implemented. We test our... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

14 Sep 2010
First Look

First Look: September 14, 2010

extensive theoretical literature generates ambiguous predictions concerning the effects of intellectual property rights (IPR) reform on industrial development. The impact depends on whether multinational enterprises (MNEs) expand... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

06 Apr 2010
First Look

First Look: April 6

liberalization and since broad-based corporate governance reforms were implemented, goes expressly against the prediction of prior schools of thought about business groups. We argue that the conventional wisdom about tunneling and... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

19 Dec 2024
News

The Musts of 2024

Subscribe on iTunes Subscribe on Spotify More Skydeck episodes Hi, this is Dan Morrell, host of Skydeck. I love these end-of-the-year lists where you can get recommendations from smart people about things that are worth your time and money. It always sets me up really... View Details

01 Mar 2005
News

Venture Capital’s Comeback

Massachusetts. During the bubble, the most valued skill was the presumed ability to predict what hot concept could go public fast. Now the pendulum has swung back to valuing entrepreneurial skills first and foremost. There’s also a... View Details

Keywords: Roger Thompson; Securities, Commodities, and Other Financial Investments; Finance

Web

Making Difficult Decisions: The General Manager’s Role (MDD) - Course Catalog

with a particular emphasis on contexts characterized by high uncertainty and high stakes. We examine cognitive, interpersonal, and organizational factors that undermine effective decision making and introduce techniques for diagnosing and overcoming View Details

28 May 2019
News

Broken Link

rural versus urban and suburban, that didn’t really predict anything.” (Rural schools did have slower speeds, but they also had fewer students to slow the network down.) After securing nearly $30 million in funding, the group’s work... View Details

Keywords: Nicole Torres; News, Library, Internet, and Other Services; Information

01 Mar 2018
News

Money (Actually) Can Buy Happiness

Professor Michael Norton and Assistant Professor Ashley Whillans (image by John Ritter) People aren’t very good at predicting what will make them happy, say Professor Michael Norton and Assistant Professor Ashley Whillans, who both study... View Details

Keywords: April White

01 Dec 2013
News

14 for '14

independence as powerful and rich city-states." —Juan Enriquez (MBA 1986), managing director, Excel Venture Management What do you think? Make your predictions in the comments in the "Post a Comment" box below. View Details

Keywords: Arts, Entertainment; Finance; Government; Information; Retail Trade

25 Sep 2007
First Look

First Look: September 25, 2007

of the "long tail" principle argue that lower transaction and search costs will lead to a shift away from hit content and cause more fragmentation in consumers' choices. This perspective is in sharp contrast with the more established theory of superstars,... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

January 2011 (Revised September 2011)
Case

Caterpillar, Inc. (A)

By: David F. Hawkins

2010 Healthcare Reform Act eliminates Medicare Part D subsidy and Caterpillar recognizes a $100 million change. View Details

Keywords: Information Infrastructure; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Employment; Cost vs Benefits; Forecasting and Prediction; Change Management; Asset Management; Financial Strategy; Activity Based Costing and Management; Business or Company Management; Technology Industry; Manufacturing Industry; United States

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07 Jul 2014
Research & Ideas

Banning Big-box Stores Can Hurt Local Retailers

model that would help policy makers to predict the implications of entry regulations more accurately, and in particular the competitive implications of the different store formats." View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel; Retail

07 Apr 2011
What Do You Think?

When Should the Public Sector Take Over in a Meltdown?

would suggest avoiding intervention. But when it is national, he suggests that other countries "wait & watch, and move in at an appropriate time, whether invited or not." Given the widely varying nature of crises, Gaurav Goel suggests putting in place... View Details

Keywords: by Jim Heskett; Energy; Utilities

23 Jul 2001
Research & Ideas

How One Center of Innovation Lost its Spark

and predictably low return. The tire companies did not respond to radial technology by doing nothing or by delaying necessary actions, but rather responded by accelerating activities—such as incremental extensions of the existing product... View Details

Keywords: by Donald Sull; Manufacturing; Transportation; Auto

01 Jan 2002
News

Orin C. Smith (MBA '67)

Starbucks the world's fastest- growing global brand. "We're fortunate because coffee and the coffeehouse concept have cross-cultural relevance," Smith observes, predicting that the company will have a presence in fifty countries by 2005.... View Details

January – March 2012
Article

Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

By: Luis M. Viceira

This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on... View Details

Keywords: Bonds; Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Interest Rates; Inflation and Deflation; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; Currency Exchange Rate; Cash Flow; Stocks

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September 2023 (Revised December 2023)
Case

TetraScience: Noise and Signal

By: Thomas R. Eisenmann and Tom Quinn

In 2019, TetraScience CEO “Spin” Wang needed advice. Five years earlier, he had cofounded a startup that saw early success with a hardware product designed to help laboratory scientists in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical spaces more easily collect data from... View Details