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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(2,883)
- News (476)
- Research (2,211)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (14)
- Faculty Publications (1,423)
- 01 Sep 2003
- News
The Power of National Identity
Russia; countries seeking reorientation and closer integration with Europe; and “ambivalent” countries torn between Russia and the West. At the time of the Soviet breakup, few in the international community would have predicted this... View Details
- 06 Aug 2008
- News
Caution to the Winds
Maybe there’s nothing to those predictions that the end of oil is near, or the allegations, such as those by oil-industry veteran Matthew Simmons (MBA ’67), that Saudi petroleum reserves are way less than what is believed. But something’s... View Details
Keywords: Garry Emmons
- May 2011
- Article
Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents
This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Acquisition; Risk Management; Prejudice and Bias
Van den Steen, Eric J. "Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents." Management Science 57, no. 5 (May 2011): 884–896.
- 2006
- Working Paper
Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning
To date, little research has been done on managing the organizational and political dimensions of generating and improving forecasts in corporate settings. We examine the implementation of a supply chain planning process at a consumer electronics company, concentrating... View Details
Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Business or Company Management; Supply Chain Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Planning; Electronics Industry
Oliva, Rogelio, and Noel Watson. "Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-024, October 2006. (Revised March 2007, January 2008.)
- 23 Jul 2018
- Research & Ideas
The Open Office Revolution Has Gone Too Far
and then develop theories that will help predict behavior in the future. I don’t know that I had a clear hypothesis about this research question at the start. You hear so much said about how much people don’t like open offices, but... View Details
Keywords: Re: Ethan S. Bernstein
- 29 Aug 2017
- First Look
First Look at New Research and Ideas, August 29
Documenting the actual levels of inequality within and across countries is generally considered a critical input to the design of economic and social policy (7–10); we suggest that assessing laypeople’s understanding of those levels, and how that understanding View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 25 Nov 2014
- First Look
First Look: November 25
ratios. Conversely, peer firms identified by Google and Yahoo Finance, as well as product market competitors gleaned from 10-K disclosures, turned in consistently worse performances. We contextualize these results in a simple model that View Details
Keywords: Carmen Nobel
- 01 Sep 2024
- News
The Exchange: Lessons from the Edge
Image by John Ritter Professors Geoff Jones and Tarun Khanna had been toiling away from their respective HBS offices for many years, each of them interested in emerging markets but expressed through different disciplines: Jones, a historian, was studying how the world... View Details
- 29 Apr 2016
- News
The First Five Years: Kelly McKenna (MBA 2015)
predicted he wouldn’t graduate grade school, yet he graduated college with honors because my family focused on what he was capable of and believed in him. “With ArtLifting, our mission is to empower disadvantaged individuals through the... View Details
- 05 Jan 2011
- Op-Ed
Funding Unpredictability Around Stem-Cell Research Inflicts Heavy Cost on Scientific Progress
promising projects. Great people will leave basic research and move to more predictable pastures. And some great young people will decide not to go into research careers at all. The precipitous shift in the legal and regulatory... View Details
- 01 Jan 2008
- News
Meg Whitman, MBA 1979
March she handed the reigns to former Bain colleague John Donahoe. Still involved as an eBay board member, Whitman is now focused on philanthropic and political endeavors. While not ready to predict her future, since May she has served as... View Details
- 29 Jun 2015
- HBS Case
Consumer-centered Health Care Depends on Accessible Medical Records
predict the health care needs of patients, continually enhance patient outcomes, and drive transformative solutions to import community access to health care. For example, using patient data including emergency department visits and... View Details
- 08 Oct 2013
- First Look
First Look: October 8
returns across time horizons exhibit strong return predictability up to three years ahead and produce an aggregate equity term structure that tracks economic conditions. The implied term structure is upward sloping during normal or... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 21 May 2013
- First Look
First Look: May 21
cost of capital and in turn the rates available to borrowers. Standard theory predicts that, in perfect and efficient capital markets, reducing banks' leverage reduces the risk and cost of equity but leaves the overall weighted average... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 07 Dec 2010
- First Look
First Look: Dec. 7
why consumers desire unusual and novel consumption experiences and voluntarily choose leisure activities, vacations, and celebrations that are predicted to be less pleasurable. For example, consumers sometimes choose to stay at freezing... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- October 2009 (Revised July 2012)
- Case
Emotiv Systems Inc.: It's the Thoughts that Count
By: Elie Ofek, Jason Riis and Paul Hamilton
Emotiv is getting ready to launch its innovative brain-computer interfacing (BCI) technology. The company has developed a special headset, called EPOC, and highly sophisticated software that can translate a person's emotions, cognitive thoughts, and facial expressions... View Details
Keywords: Technology Adoption; Sales; Technological Innovation; Demand and Consumers; Marketing Strategy; Partners and Partnerships; Entrepreneurship; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Launch; Business Startups; Technology Industry
Ofek, Elie, Jason Riis, and Paul Hamilton. "Emotiv Systems Inc.: It's the Thoughts that Count." Harvard Business School Case 510-050, October 2009. (Revised July 2012.)
- December 1991 (Revised February 1992)
- Case
Dayton Electric Corp.
Concerns a product redesign decision for one of the company's most successful motor products, its rectified power, medium D-C motor, the RPM. A one-year redesign program has proposed a design that comes close to meeting its stated cost and performance goals, but at the... View Details
Keywords: Product Design; Strategic Planning; Research and Development; Business Divisions; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Development; Technological Innovation; Machinery and Machining; Manufacturing Industry; Ohio
Wheelwright, Steven C. "Dayton Electric Corp." Harvard Business School Case 692-071, December 1991. (Revised February 1992.)
- 11 Dec 2018
- First Look
New Research and Ideas, December 11, 2018
activity. When our measure is high, safe bonds fall in value and risky assets rally, forecasting a boom in investment. Risk appetite is closely linked to investors’ expectations of future risk and rises following positive macroeconomic outcomes. Periods of elevated... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
- 19 Nov 2012
- Research & Ideas
LEED-ing by Example
tenants to pay the cost of utilities, which reduces a landlord's incentive to invest in LEED, or in other energy efficiency capital expenditures. However, government lessees are attractive to landlords because they come with predictable... View Details
- 04 Aug 2009
- First Look
First Look: August 4
allocation within an economy. The theory predicts that GAAP's principal focus, as shaped by the demand for and supply of financial information, is on the use of the income statement and balance sheet for performance measurement and... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace