Predictability - Publications - Faculty & Research

21 Jan 2020
Research & Ideas

Lessons for Retailers from the Rebirth of Indie Bookstores

business,” he says. “I embed myself into an industry for multiple years to understand the nuances of what’s happening, and I try to uncover unexpected patterns that can be difficult to predict using traditional statistical models.” Three... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding; Entertainment & Recreation

05 Aug 2015
What Do You Think?

What Happened to the ‘Innovation, Disruption, Technology’ Dividend?

even brighter future. Others predict that "disruption," perhaps the most overworked term in business English today, will foster competition, make long-term strategic planning a questionable management activity, and bring new... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett; Computer; Technology

28 May 2014
Research & Ideas

Building Histories of Emerging Economies One Interview at a Time

"Every capitalist economy has its ups, downs, and shocks," says Jones. "But there's a due process and greater predictability to business in the United States and Europe, which these people haven't experienced in the 30 or 40 years of... View Details

Keywords: by Julia Hanna

17 Feb 2010
First Look

First Look: Feb. 17

Management (forthcoming) Abstract Consumers who buy a product intending to use an accompanying mail-in rebate often do not redeem the rebate. To explain this behavior, we argue that consumers use an anchoring and adjustment approach to View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

02 Jun 2009
First Look

First Look: June 2, 2009

Working PapersTruth in Giving: Experimental Evidence on the Welfare Effects of Informed Giving to the Poor Authors:Christina Fong and Felix Oberholzer-Gee Abstract It is often difficult for donors to predict the value of charitable... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

18 Feb 2002
Research & Ideas

Wrap-up: Software, Telecom, and Recovery

exists doesn't make it any easier for investors to predict if and when an investment will pan out. If you hesitate, will all be lost? As William Quigley, managing director of Clearstone Venture Partners, put it, "Venture capitalism... View Details

Keywords: by Wendy Guild & Martha Lagace; Financial Services; Technology; Communications; Telecommunications

Web

The True Costs of Gig Work | Working Knowledge

money, exhibit very different spending behavior. The gig economy exploded with the COVID-19 pandemic, technological advances, and the rise of remote work. With inflation predicted to rise amid a turbulent economy, some people might opt to... View Details

18 Mar 2009
Research & Ideas

Marketing After the Recession

the result will be continuing downward pressure on prices. Economic recovery will not allow producers to let up on tightening cost controls and improving productivity. Know your lead indicators. Every good marketer knows the specific indicators, macro or micro, that... View Details

Keywords: by John Quelch; Retail

29 May 2001
Research & Ideas

Genomics: Can We Start Making Money Now?

predict a new world where drug treatments are customized to an individual's genetic makeup, and gene-based therapy can root out cancer and other diseases before they take hold in the body. The new science will "revolutionize the way... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne

12 May 2003
Research & Ideas

How Hot is the “Hot Spot” Business?

profits later" pitch. Dayton said venture money would flow once the business opportunities become apparent, but deals will be for hundreds of thousands of dollars, not millions. Predictions For Broadband: 2008 In another panel... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne & Martha Lagace; Technology; Communications; Telecommunications

03 Feb 2015
First Look

First Look: February 3

Dennis A. Yao Abstract—This article examines how antitrust law and policy can benefit from ideas developed in the academic strategy field. Because accurate assessment and prediction of the effects of firm conduct depend in part on... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

19 Jul 2011
First Look

First Look: July 19

leaves a set of information-rich trades by "opportunistic" insiders that contain all the predictive power in the insider trading universe. A portfolio strategy that focuses solely on opportunistic traders yields value-weighted... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

March 2017 (Revised February 2025)
Case

Edwin Land: The Art and Science of Innovation

By: Tom Nicholas, Christopher T. Stanton and Matthew G. Preble

Throughout the second half of the 20th century, Polaroid first invented—and then continuously reinvented—the field of instant photography. Under the leadership of its mercurial founder Edwin Land, the company regularly released new instant cameras and films, often... View Details

Keywords: Instant Photography; Company History; Change Management; Disruption; Forecasting and Prediction; Entrepreneurship; Business History; Innovation Strategy; Disruptive Innovation; Innovation and Management; Intellectual Property; Patents; Product Marketing; Brands and Branding; Product Launch; Product Development; Chemical Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States

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07 May 2013
First Look

First Look: May 7

reduction of firm variability, we do not find this offsetting beneficial effect to be strong. Download working paper: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2252200 Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity By:... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

May 2005
Exercise

Forecasting the Adoption of E-books

By: Elie Ofek

Gives students an opportunity to understand the challenges inherent in forecasting the diffusions of innovations. Provides data for forecasting the adoption of electronic books. Students are encouraged to use the Bass Model framework, while being cognizant of its... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Framework; Books; Analytics and Data Science; Product Launch; Internet and the Web; Technology Adoption

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12 Feb 2019
First Look

New Research and Ideas, February 12, 2019

Joy—and What Will By: Whillans, A.V. Abstract— No abstract available. Publisher's link: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=55600 forthcoming Emotion Common Variants of the Oxytocin Receptor Gene Do Not Predict the Positive... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

27 Jul 2019
Op-Ed

Does Facebook's Business Model Threaten Our Elections?

platform. Advertisers used that data to create psychographic profiles of potential customers that went beyond mere demographics to give insights into what they like and value. Studies have found that with just 10 “likes” an algorithm can View Details

Keywords: by George Riedel

28 Jun 2011
First Look

First Look: June 28

straightforward processing to update prices, while the other set requires more complicated analyses to incorporate the same piece of information into prices. We document substantial return predictability from the set of easy-to-analyze... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

05 Jul 2006
First Look

First Look: July 5, 2006

predictive and prescriptive implications, this theory contributes to the general notion that pricing might affect as much as capture perceived value. Paper: http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/06-055.pdf Capital Structure with Risky Foreign... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

March 2024
Case

Teamworks: Tackling a Forecasting Fumble (A)

By: N. Louis Shipley and Stacy Straaberg

In late March 2018, Teamworks CEO Zach Maurides learned Q1 2018 sales were at risk for a large forecasting miss. Founded in 2004, Teamworks’s software application assisted support staff in messaging, scheduling, and sharing documents with collegiate and professional... View Details