Publications

Educators

June 2023
Case

Tractor Supply Co

By: David L. Ager and Michael A. Roberto

In February 2023, Hal Lawton, CEO of Tractor Supply Co, the largest farm and ranch retailer in the United States reflected on the company’s 70% growth between 2019 and 2022. Economists had begun to predict an economic downturn and experts were predicting softening... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Demand and Consumers; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Retail Industry

Educators

2011
Chapter

Prospective Codes Fufilled: A Potential Neural Mechanism of Will

By: Thalia Wheatley and Christine E. Looser

One of my few shortcomings is that I can’t predict the future.
Lars Ulrich, Metallica.

Lars Ulrich was right and wrong. He was right in the way we most often think about the future—as a long stretch of time during which multiply... View Details

Keywords: Free Will; Neuroscience; Responsibility; Prospection; Forecasting and Prediction; Science; Cognition and Thinking

09 Mar 2021
Working Paper Summaries

Stock Price Reactions to ESG News: The Role of ESG Ratings and Disagreement

Keywords: by George Serafeim and Aaron Yoon; Financial Services

August 2006
Article

Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by... View Details

Keywords: Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Motivation and Incentives; Risk and Uncertainty; Volatility

16 Mar 2009
Research & Ideas

When the Internet Runs Out of IP Addresses

The Internet is running out of room. Experts predict that in two or three years we will run out of Web addresses, so-called IP addresses, that can be assigned to new Internet-based sites and services. Each site is assigned a unique number... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Telecommunications

February 2006 (Revised September 2007)
Background Note

Winner-Take-All in Networked Markets

By: Thomas R. Eisenmann

Discusses platform structure in new networked markets, that is, whether a market that exhibits network effects will be served by a single platform or by rival platforms. Defines "platforms" and "platform structure"; describes factors that influence the odds that a... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Growth Management; Network Effects; Digital Platforms; Internet and the Web

Educators

2018
Working Paper

Forecasting Airport Transfer Passenger Flow Using Real-Time Data and Machine Learning

By: Xiaojia Guo, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Bert De Reyck

Problem definition: In collaboration with Heathrow Airport, we develop a predictive system that generates quantile forecasts of transfer passengers’ connection times. Sampling from the distribution of individual passengers’ connection times, the system also produces... View Details

Keywords: Quantile Forecasts; Regression Tree; Copula; Passenger Flow Management; Data-driven Operations; Forecasting and Prediction; Data and Data Sets

SSRN

2021
Working Paper

Equilibrium Effects of Pay Transparency

By: Zoë B. Cullen and Bobak Pakzad-Hurson

The public discourse around pay transparency has focused on the direct effect: how workers seek to rectify newly-disclosed pay inequities through renegotiations. The question of how wage-setting and hiring practices of the firm respond in equilibrium has received... View Details

Keywords: Pay Transparency; Online Labor Market; Privacy; Wage Gap; Negotiation; Corporate Disclosure; Compensation and Benefits; Gender

Research Summary

Entrepreneurial Management

By: Howard H. Stevenson

Howard H. Stevenson is researching and writing on the need for and consequences of predictability. In work designed for a managerial audience, he is examining the roles played by organizations, cultures, and ethical systems in enabling individuals to predict the... View Details

April 12, 2022
Article

Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States

By: Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li and et al.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Forecasting and Prediction; Health Pandemics; Mathematical Methods; Partners and Partnerships

Register to Read

2005
Working Paper

Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by studying... View Details

Keywords: Investment Return; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Theory; Forecasting and Prediction

05 Dec 2012
What Do You Think?

Should Managers Bother Listening to Predictions?

Summing Up Can Managers Afford to Ignore Predictions in Planning? There is a healthy skepticism when it comes to the reliability of predictions as a basis for planning. Donald Kortalon, commenting on this... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

May 2021 (Revised February 2024)
Teaching Note

THE YES: Reimagining the Future of E-Commerce with Artificial Intelligence (AI)

By: Ayelet Israeli and Jill Avery

THE YES, a multi-brand shopping app launched in May 2020 offered a new type of buying experience for women’s fashion, driven by a sophisticated algorithm that used data science and machine learning to create and deliver a personalized store for every shopper, based on... View Details

Keywords: Data; Data Analytics; Artificial Intelligence; AI; AI Algorithms; AI Creativity; Fashion; Retail; Retail Analytics; E-Commerce Strategy; Platform; Platforms; Big Data; Preference Elicitation; Predictive Analytics; App Development; ＂Marketing Analytics＂; Advertising; Mobile App; Mobile Marketing; Apparel; Online Advertising; Referral Rewards; Referrals; Female Ceo; Female Entrepreneur; Female Protagonist; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Creativity; Marketing Strategy; Brands and Branding; Consumer Behavior; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Channels; Digital Marketing; Internet and the Web; Mobile and Wireless Technology; AI and Machine Learning; E-commerce; Digital Platforms; Fashion Industry; Retail Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States

2014
Chapter

Appetite, Consumption, and Choice in the Human Brain

By: Brian Knutson and Uma R. Karmarkar

Although linked, researchers have long distinguished appetitive from consummatory phases of reward processing. Recent improvements in the spatial and temporal resolution of neuroimaging techniques have allowed researchers to separately visualize different stages of... View Details

2009
Article

Social Structure Shapes Cultural Stereotypes and Emotions: A Causal Test of the Stereotype Content Model

By: P. Caprariello, A.J.C. Cuddy and S.T. Fiske

The stereotype content model (SCM) posits that social structure predicts specific cultural stereotypes and associated emotional prejudices (Fiske et al., 2002). No prior evidence at a societal level has manipulated both structural predictors and measured both... View Details

Keywords: Competency and Skills; Mathematical Methods; Emotions; Personal Characteristics; Prejudice and Bias; Status and Position; Culture; Competition

December 2024
Article

Is There Too Little Antitrust Enforcement in the U.S. Hospital Sector?

By: Zarek Brot-Goldberg, Zack Cooper, Stuart Craig and Lev Klarnet

From 2002 to 2020, there were over 1,000 mergers of U.S. hospitals. During this period, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) took enforcement actions against 13 transactions. However, using the FTC’s standard screening tools, we find that 20% of these mergers could have... View Details

Keywords: Monopoly; Mergers and Acquisitions; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Competition; Health Industry

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04 Dec 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Pathways to Materiality: How Sustainability Issues Become Financially Material to Corporations and Their Investors

Keywords: by Jean Rogers and George Serafeim

28 Jul 2009
Research Event

Business Summit: Real Estate

next steps in real estate? This panel discussed the global real estate crisis, the future of securitization, and predictions for the future of the U.S. real estate market. After years of abundant capital and rising asset prices, the... View Details

Keywords: Re: Howard H. Stevenson; Construction; Real Estate

September 1996 (Revised March 2002)
Case

Bishay Industries

By: David F. Hawkins and Norman Bartczak

A bankrupt company has a turnaround plan. Students are asked to predict whether it will be successful. View Details

Keywords: Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Business Plan; Goals and Objectives; Strategic Planning; Business Strategy; Cash Flow; Mathematical Methods; Financial Services Industry