Publications

2018
Working Paper

Forecasting Airport Transfer Passenger Flow Using Real-Time Data and Machine Learning

By: Xiaojia Guo, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Bert De Reyck

Problem definition: In collaboration with Heathrow Airport, we develop a predictive system that generates quantile forecasts of transfer passengers’ connection times. Sampling from the distribution of individual passengers’ connection times, the system also produces... View Details

Keywords: Quantile Forecasts; Regression Tree; Copula; Passenger Flow Management; Data-driven Operations; Forecasting and Prediction; Data and Data Sets

SSRN

2011
Chapter

Prospective Codes Fufilled: A Potential Neural Mechanism of Will

By: Thalia Wheatley and Christine E. Looser

One of my few shortcomings is that I can’t predict the future.
Lars Ulrich, Metallica.

Lars Ulrich was right and wrong. He was right in the way we most often think about the future—as a long stretch of time during which multiply... View Details

Keywords: Free Will; Neuroscience; Responsibility; Prospection; Forecasting and Prediction; Science; Cognition and Thinking

February 2018 (Revised December 2020)
Case

People Analytics at Teach For America (A)

By: Jeffrey T. Polzer and Julia Kelley

As of mid-2016, national nonprofit Teach For America (TFA) had struggled with three consecutive years of declining application totals, and senior management was re-examining the organization's strategy, including recruitment and selection. A few months earlier, former... View Details

Keywords: Recruitment; Selection and Staffing; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction

06 Oct 2008
Research & Ideas

Updating a Classic: Writing a Great Business Plan

business plan and its relation to new venture formation. I tried to explain that a business plan can't be a tightly crafted prediction of the future but rather a depiction of how events might unfold and a road map for change. I emphasized... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne

2005
Working Paper

Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by studying... View Details

Keywords: Investment Return; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Theory; Forecasting and Prediction

December 1970 (Revised September 2006)
Case

Harmon Foods, Inc.

Prediction and shipment has been a scheduling and budgetary problem. Multiple regression is suggested as a solution. Evaluation of regression coefficients leads to better understanding of trend, seasonality, and promotion effectiveness. View Details

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Production; Forecasting and Prediction; Budgets and Budgeting; Manufacturing Industry; Food and Beverage Industry

09 Mar 2021
Working Paper Summaries

Stock Price Reactions to ESG News: The Role of ESG Ratings and Disagreement

Keywords: by George Serafeim and Aaron Yoon; Financial Services

August 2006
Article

Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by... View Details

Keywords: Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Motivation and Incentives; Risk and Uncertainty; Volatility

Article

Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates

By: Peter R. Joos, Joseph D. Piotroski and Suraj Srinivasan

We use a dataset of sell-side analysts' scenario-based valuation estimates to examine whether analysts reliably assess the risk surrounding a firm's fundamental value. We find that the spread in analysts' state-side contingent valuations captures the riskiness of... View Details

Keywords: Analyst Forecasts; Scenarios; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction

SSRN

2021
Working Paper

Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight

By: Aticus Peterson and Andy Wu

We study how learning by experience across projects affects an entrepreneur's strategic foresight. In a quantitative study of 314 entrepreneurs across 722 crowdfunded projects supplemented with a program of qualitative interviews, we counterintuitively find that... View Details

Keywords: Experience; Interdependency; Strategic Foresight; Crowdfunding; Timeline; Delay; Forecasting; Entrepreneurship; Learning; Complexity; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Development; Planning

05 Dec 2012
What Do You Think?

Should Managers Bother Listening to Predictions?

Summing Up Can Managers Afford to Ignore Predictions in Planning? There is a healthy skepticism when it comes to the reliability of predictions as a basis for planning. Donald Kortalon, commenting on this... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

2021
Working Paper

Equilibrium Effects of Pay Transparency

By: Zoë B. Cullen and Bobak Pakzad-Hurson

The public discourse around pay transparency has focused on the direct effect: how workers seek to rectify newly-disclosed pay inequities through renegotiations. The question of how wage-setting and hiring practices of the firm respond in equilibrium has received... View Details

Keywords: Pay Transparency; Online Labor Market; Privacy; Wage Gap; Negotiation; Corporate Disclosure; Compensation and Benefits; Gender

October 2002 (Revised May 2021)
Case

Group Process in the Challenger Launch Decision (A)

By: Amy C. Edmondson and Laura Feldman

The night before the launch of the Challenger shuttle, officials from Morton Thiokol (Solid Rocket Booster manufacturer) and NASA participated in a teleconference to discuss whether to postpone the shuttle launch due to predicted low temperatures at Kennedy Space... View Details

Keywords: Process Analysis; Problems and Challenges; Groups and Teams; Engineering; Risk Management; Analysis; Decision Making; Aerospace Industry; United States

2009
Article

Social Structure Shapes Cultural Stereotypes and Emotions: A Causal Test of the Stereotype Content Model

By: P. Caprariello, A.J.C. Cuddy and S.T. Fiske

The stereotype content model (SCM) posits that social structure predicts specific cultural stereotypes and associated emotional prejudices (Fiske et al., 2002). No prior evidence at a societal level has manipulated both structural predictors and measured both... View Details

Keywords: Competency and Skills; Mathematical Methods; Emotions; Personal Characteristics; Prejudice and Bias; Status and Position; Culture; Competition

16 Mar 2009
Research & Ideas

When the Internet Runs Out of IP Addresses

The Internet is running out of room. Experts predict that in two or three years we will run out of Web addresses, so-called IP addresses, that can be assigned to new Internet-based sites and services. Each site is assigned a unique number... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Telecommunications

December 2024
Article

Is There Too Little Antitrust Enforcement in the U.S. Hospital Sector?

By: Zarek Brot-Goldberg, Zack Cooper, Stuart Craig and Lev Klarnet

From 2002 to 2020, there were over 1,000 mergers of U.S. hospitals. During this period, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) took enforcement actions against 13 transactions. However, using the FTC’s standard screening tools, we find that 20% of these mergers could have... View Details

Keywords: Monopoly; Mergers and Acquisitions; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Competition; Health Industry

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05 Aug 2024
Research & Ideas

Watching for the Next Economic Downturn? Follow Corporate Debt

What really fuels a boom-and-bust cycle in the modern global economy? It’s not always household debt, says a new paper that parses in-depth data across 115 countries. Instead, rising corporate debt may flash the clearest warning that a fiscal crisis is on the horizon.... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne

20 Oct 2011
Research & Ideas

Getting the Marketing Mix Right

their FSL model, however, the results provided much greater detail about the potential effects of different marketing investments. For example, the model predicted that sales gains from DTCA and M&E would come primarily through... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

2014
Chapter

Appetite, Consumption, and Choice in the Human Brain

By: Brian Knutson and Uma R. Karmarkar

Although linked, researchers have long distinguished appetitive from consummatory phases of reward processing. Recent improvements in the spatial and temporal resolution of neuroimaging techniques have allowed researchers to separately visualize different stages of... View Details