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  • 16 Mar 2009
  • Research & Ideas

When the Internet Runs Out of IP Addresses

The Internet is running out of room. Experts predict that in two or three years we will run out of Web addresses, so-called IP addresses, that can be assigned to new Internet-based sites and services. Each site is assigned a unique number... View Details
Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Telecommunications
  • April 12, 2022
  • Article

Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States

By: Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li and et al.
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Forecasting and Prediction; Health Pandemics; Mathematical Methods; Partners and Partnerships
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Cramer, Estee Y., Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li, and et al. "Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States." e2113561119. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 15 (April 12, 2022). (See full author list here.)
  • 2008
  • Article

Warmth and Competence As Universal Dimensions of Social Perception: The Stereotype Content Model and the BIAS Map

By: A. J.C. Cuddy, S. T. Fiske and P. Glick
The stereotype content model (SCM) defines two fundamental dimensions of social perception, warmth and competence, predicted respectively by perceived competition and status. Combinations of warmth and competence generate distinct emotions of admiration, contempt,... View Details
Keywords: Perception; Competency and Skills; Prejudice and Bias; Emotions; Business Model; Behavior; Research; Competition; Status and Position; Cognition and Thinking; Groups and Teams
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Cuddy, A. J.C., S. T. Fiske, and P. Glick. "Warmth and Competence As Universal Dimensions of Social Perception: The Stereotype Content Model and the BIAS Map." Advances in Experimental Social Psychology 40 (2008): 61–149.
  • June 2023
  • Case

Tractor Supply Co

By: David L. Ager and Michael A. Roberto
In February 2023, Hal Lawton, CEO of Tractor Supply Co, the largest farm and ranch retailer in the United States reflected on the company’s 70% growth between 2019 and 2022. Economists had begun to predict an economic downturn and experts were predicting softening... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Demand and Consumers; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Retail Industry
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Ager, David L., and Michael A. Roberto. "Tractor Supply Co." Harvard Business School Case 923-302, June 2023.
  • April 2003 (Revised December 2006)
  • Case

ZARA: Fast Fashion

By: Pankaj Ghemawat and Jose Luis Nueno
Focuses on Inditex, an apparel retailer from Spain, which has set up an extremely quick response system for its ZARA chain. Instead of predicting months before a season starts what women will want to wear, ZARA observes what's selling and what's not and continuously... View Details
Keywords: Organizational Change and Adaptation; Multinational Firms and Management; Competitive Advantage; Manufacturing Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Retail Industry; Spain
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Ghemawat, Pankaj, and Jose Luis Nueno. "ZARA: Fast Fashion." Harvard Business School Case 703-497, April 2003. (Revised December 2006.)
  • 09 Mar 2021
  • Working Paper Summaries

Stock Price Reactions to ESG News: The Role of ESG Ratings and Disagreement

Keywords: by George Serafeim and Aaron Yoon; Financial Services
  • 2011
  • Chapter

Prospective Codes Fufilled: A Potential Neural Mechanism of Will

By: Thalia Wheatley and Christine E. Looser
One of my few shortcomings is that I can’t predict the future.
Lars Ulrich, Metallica.

Lars Ulrich was right and wrong. He was right in the way we most often think about the future—as a long stretch of time during which multiply... View Details
Keywords: Free Will; Neuroscience; Responsibility; Prospection; Forecasting and Prediction; Science; Cognition and Thinking
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Wheatley, Thalia, and Christine E. Looser. "Prospective Codes Fufilled: A Potential Neural Mechanism of Will." Chap. 13 in Conscious Will and Responsibility: A Tribute to Benjamin Libet, edited by Walter Sinnott-Armstrong and Lynn Nadel, 146–158. New York: Oxford University Press, 2011.
  • September 26, 2018
  • Article

Ownership and Power Structure: Together at Last

By: Laura Alfaro, Nicholas Bloom, Paola Conconi, Harald Fadinger, Patrick Legros, Andrew Newman, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen
Economists have largely ignored the deep interdependency between integration and delegation. This column describes a new theory of integration and delegation choices aimed at shedding light on how these distinct elements of organizational design interact. Contrary to... View Details
Keywords: Power; Organisational Design; Economics; Ownership; Organizational Design
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Alfaro, Laura, Nicholas Bloom, Paola Conconi, Harald Fadinger, Patrick Legros, Andrew Newman, Raffaella Sadun, and John Van Reenen. "Ownership and Power Structure: Together at Last." Vox, CEPR Policy Portal (September 26, 2018).
  • August 2006
  • Article

Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by... View Details
Keywords: Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Motivation and Incentives; Risk and Uncertainty; Volatility
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Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns." Journal of Finance 61, no. 4 (August 2006): 1645–1680.
  • February 2006 (Revised September 2007)
  • Background Note

Winner-Take-All in Networked Markets

By: Thomas R. Eisenmann
Discusses platform structure in new networked markets, that is, whether a market that exhibits network effects will be served by a single platform or by rival platforms. Defines "platforms" and "platform structure"; describes factors that influence the odds that a... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Growth Management; Network Effects; Digital Platforms; Internet and the Web
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Eisenmann, Thomas R. "Winner-Take-All in Networked Markets." Harvard Business School Background Note 806-131, February 2006. (Revised September 2007.)
  • 2018
  • Working Paper

Forecasting Airport Transfer Passenger Flow Using Real-Time Data and Machine Learning

By: Xiaojia Guo, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Bert De Reyck
Problem definition: In collaboration with Heathrow Airport, we develop a predictive system that generates quantile forecasts of transfer passengers’ connection times. Sampling from the distribution of individual passengers’ connection times, the system also produces... View Details
Keywords: Quantile Forecasts; Regression Tree; Copula; Passenger Flow Management; Data-driven Operations; Forecasting and Prediction; Data and Data Sets
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Guo, Xiaojia, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Bert De Reyck. "Forecasting Airport Transfer Passenger Flow Using Real-Time Data and Machine Learning." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-040, October 2018.
  • 2005
  • Working Paper

Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by studying... View Details
Keywords: Investment Return; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Theory; Forecasting and Prediction
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Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns." NBER Working Paper Series, No. w10449, April 2005. (First draft in 2003.)
  • 28 Jul 2009
  • Research Event

Business Summit: Real Estate

next steps in real estate? This panel discussed the global real estate crisis, the future of securitization, and predictions for the future of the U.S. real estate market. After years of abundant capital and rising asset prices, the... View Details
Keywords: Re: Howard H. Stevenson; Construction; Real Estate
  • 03 Mar 2014
  • Research & Ideas

Facebook’s Future

Editor's note: Now 10 years old, Facebook's growth is starting to slow. That's one reason it purchased What'sApp last month in a jaw-dropping deal valued at $19 billion. What might the next decade be like? Harvard Business School Associate Professor Mikolaj Piskorski,... View Details
Keywords: by Mikolaj Piskorski
  • 2021
  • Working Paper

Equilibrium Effects of Pay Transparency

By: Zoë B. Cullen and Bobak Pakzad-Hurson
The public discourse around pay transparency has focused on the direct effect: how workers seek to rectify newly-disclosed pay inequities through renegotiations. The question of how wage-setting and hiring practices of the firm respond in equilibrium has received... View Details
Keywords: Pay Transparency; Online Labor Market; Privacy; Wage Gap; Negotiation; Corporate Disclosure; Compensation and Benefits; Gender
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Cullen, Zoë B., and Bobak Pakzad-Hurson. "Equilibrium Effects of Pay Transparency." Working Paper, June 2021. (Econometrica, Vol 91, No. 3 (May, 2023), 765-802.)
  • October 2019
  • Article

Making Sense of Recommendations

By: Michael Yeomans, Anuj Shah, Sendhil Mullainathan and Jon Kleinberg
Computer algorithms are increasingly being used to predict people's preferences and make recommendations. Although people frequently encounter these algorithms because they are cheap to scale, we do not know how they compare to human judgment. Here, we compare computer... View Details
Keywords: Recommender Systems; Artificial Intelligence; Interpretability; Information Technology; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Making; Attitudes
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Yeomans, Michael, Anuj Shah, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Jon Kleinberg. "Making Sense of Recommendations." Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 32, no. 4 (October 2019): 403–414.
  • 2023
  • Working Paper

The Optimal Stock Valuation Ratio

By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
Trailing price ratios, such as the price-dividend and the price-earnings ratio, scale prices by trailing cash flow measures. They theoretically contain expected returns, yet, their performance in predicting stock market returns is poor. This is because of an omitted... View Details
Keywords: Price; Investment Return; AI and Machine Learning; Valuation; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction
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Hillenbrand, Sebastian, and Odhrain McCarthy. "The Optimal Stock Valuation Ratio." Working Paper, November 2023.
  • May 2021 (Revised February 2024)
  • Teaching Note

THE YES: Reimagining the Future of E-Commerce with Artificial Intelligence (AI)

By: Ayelet Israeli and Jill Avery
THE YES, a multi-brand shopping app launched in May 2020 offered a new type of buying experience for women’s fashion, driven by a sophisticated algorithm that used data science and machine learning to create and deliver a personalized store for every shopper, based on... View Details
Keywords: Data; Data Analytics; Artificial Intelligence; AI; AI Algorithms; AI Creativity; Fashion; Retail; Retail Analytics; E-Commerce Strategy; Platform; Platforms; Big Data; Preference Elicitation; Predictive Analytics; App Development; "Marketing Analytics"; Advertising; Mobile App; Mobile Marketing; Apparel; Online Advertising; Referral Rewards; Referrals; Female Ceo; Female Entrepreneur; Female Protagonist; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Creativity; Marketing Strategy; Brands and Branding; Consumer Behavior; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Channels; Digital Marketing; Internet and the Web; Mobile and Wireless Technology; AI and Machine Learning; E-commerce; Digital Platforms; Fashion Industry; Retail Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States
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Israeli, Ayelet, and Jill Avery. "THE YES: Reimagining the Future of E-Commerce with Artificial Intelligence (AI)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 521-097, May 2021. (Revised February 2024.)
  • August 1998
  • Background Note

Selling Books Online in Mid-1998

By: Jeffrey F. Rayport, Carin-Isabel Knoop and Cate Reavis
Provides an overview of the trends and predictions for the online book retail industry as of August 1998 and the current status of Amazon.com, BarnesandNoble.com, and other main players' online ventures. View Details
Keywords: Internet and the Web; Books; Retail Industry
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Rayport, Jeffrey F., Carin-Isabel Knoop, and Cate Reavis. "Selling Books Online in Mid-1998." Harvard Business School Background Note 899-038, August 1998.
  • 05 Dec 2012
  • What Do You Think?

Should Managers Bother Listening to Predictions?

Summing Up Can Managers Afford to Ignore Predictions in Planning? There is a healthy skepticism when it comes to the reliability of predictions as a basis for planning. Donald Kortalon, commenting on this... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
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