Publications

January 2017
Article

Being Surprised by the Unsurprising: Earnings Seasonality and Stock Returns

By: Tom Y. Chang, Samuel M. Hartzmark, David H. Solomon and Eugene F. Soltes

We present evidence consistent with markets failing to properly price information in seasonal earnings patterns. Firms with historically larger earnings in one quarter of the year (“positive seasonality quarters”) have higher returns when those earnings are usually... View Details

Keywords: Business Earnings; Investment

03 Mar 2008
Research & Ideas

Marketing Your Way Through a Recession

watching television can deliver higher than expected audiences at lower cost-per-thousand impressions. Brands with deep pockets may be able to negotiate favorable advertising rates and lock them in for several years. If you have to cut... View Details

Keywords: by John Quelch

Spring 2016
Article

Risk Neglect in Equity Markets

By: Malcolm Baker

The link between measures of risk and return within the equity market has been very weak over the past 47 years: in the United States, returns on high-risk stocks have cumulatively fallen short of the returns on low-risk stocks, during a period when the equity market... View Details

Keywords: Asset Allocation; Equity Investment; Behavioral Finance; Private Equity

This paper examines the relative importance of platform quality, indirect network effects, and consumer expectations on the success of entrants in platform-based markets. We develop a theoretical model and find that an entrant's success depends on the strength of... View Details

May 1990
Article

Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market

By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot

Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing

October 2007
Article

Supply and Demand Shifts in the Shorting Market

By: Lauren Cohen, Karl B. Diether and Christopher J. Malloy

Using proprietary data on stock loan fees and quantities from a large institutional investor, we examine the link between the shorting market and stock prices. Employing a unique identification strategy, we isolate shifts in the supply and demand for shorting. We find... View Details

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Stocks; Financing and Loans; Price; Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Markets; Information

20 Oct 2011
Research & Ideas

Getting the Marketing Mix Right

when a company attempts to move in on its market share, perhaps by offering price discounts. Since this strategy is viewed as more threatening, the competitor can be expected to retaliate with... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

25 Aug 2022
News

Open Market

don’t think we know all the ripples yet. What I do know is that Robinhood customers are upending this industry. That makes a lot of people who are considered the old mainstays of the stock market very... View Details

Keywords: Dan Morrell; illustration by Keith Negley; Securities, Commodities, and Other Financial Investments; Finance

Article

On Estimating the Expected Return on the Market: An Exploratory Investigation

By: Robert C. Merton

Keywords: Markets

October 2005 (Revised February 2006)
Case

ICEX: Making a Market in Iceland

Examines the impact of increased performance on the international visibility and positioning of the Icelandic Stock Exchange. Allows consideration of various options for stock exchange growth that are created by Iceland's strong economic performance in recent years.... View Details

Keywords: International Finance; Stocks; Financial Markets; Globalization; Economy; Iceland

August 2023
Article

Can Security Design Foster Household Risk-Taking?

By: Laurent Calvet, Claire Célérier, Paolo Sodini and Boris Vallée

This paper shows that securities with a non-linear payoff design can foster household risk-taking. We demonstrate this effect empirically by exploiting the introduction of capital guarantee products in Sweden from 2002 to 2007. The fast and broad adoption of these... View Details

Keywords: Financial Innovation; Household Finance; Structured Products; Stock Market Participation; Finance; Innovation and Invention; Household; Personal Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior; Market Participation

2005
Working Paper

Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions

By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler

A number of studies claim that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, have power to predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these results may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's... View Details

Keywords: Managerial Roles; Equity; Market Timing; Financial Instruments; Investment Return; Mathematical Methods

2023
Working Paper

The Equity Market Implications of the Retail Investment Boom

By: Philippe van der Beck and Coralie Jaunin

This paper quantifies the impact of Robinhood traders on the US equity market. Within a structural model, we estimate retail and institutional demand curves and derive aggregate pricing implications via market clearing. The inelastic nature of institutional demand... View Details

Keywords: Institutional Investing; Financial Markets; Price; Financial Instruments

SSRN

June 7, 1990
Article

New Trading Practices and the Short-run Predictability of the S&P 500

By: André Perold, Kenneth A. Froot and James F. Gammill Jr.

Keywords: Institutional Investing; Market Efficiency; Equities; Stock Market; Indexing; Asset Pricing; Financial Markets; Investment; Behavioral Finance

15 Jan 2019
Working Paper Summaries

The Creation and Evolution of Entrepreneurial Public Markets

Keywords: by Shai Bernstein, Abhishek Dev, and Josh Lerner; Banking; Financial Services

2008
Working Paper

Market Reaction to the Adoption of IFRS in Europe

By: Christopher S. Armstrong, Mary E. Barth, Alan D. Jagolinzer and Edward J. Riedl

This study examines the European stock market reaction to sixteen events associated with the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in Europe. European IFRS adoption represented a major milestone towards financial reporting convergence yet... View Details

Keywords: Financial Reporting; International Accounting; Financial Markets; Code Law; Standards; Adoption; Europe

01 Apr 2001
News

Tatsuyuki Saeki: Putting Stock in New Options at Nasdaq Japan

of the wildly successful American technology stock market. Launched last year as a joint venture between the U.S. Nasdaq, Japan’s Softbank Corporation, and thirteen leading Japanese and foreign brokerages, Nasdaq Japan aims to break the... View Details

Keywords: Alejandro Reyes; Securities, Commodities, and Other Financial Investments; Finance

February 2017 (Revised April 2018)
Case

Kameda Seika: Cracking the U.S. Market

By: Elie Ofek, Nobuo Sato and Akiko Kanno

In spring 2016, Kameda’s CEO, Michiyasu Tanaka, is facing difficult questions from board members over the lackluster performance of the company’s U.S. subsidiary. Kameda was the leading player in the Japanese rice cracker market and was looking to expand overseas to... View Details

Keywords: Marketing Strategy; Growth and Development Strategy; Adaptation; Performance Improvement; Food and Beverage Industry; Manufacturing Industry; Japan; United States