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      Risk and UncertaintyRemove Risk and Uncertainty →

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      • August 2023
      • Case

      Augmenix: Space to Think Differently

      By: Satish Tadikonda and Sidhant Jena
      Amar Sawhney, a serial medtech entrepreneur, had founded Augmenix to develop and commercialize a hydrogel-based medical device called SpaceOAR as an adjunctive technology to core radiation therapy. This technology was used to protect organs at risk (OAR) during... View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Health Care and Treatment; Technology Adoption; Innovation Strategy; Technological Innovation; Product Development; Commercialization; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry
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      Tadikonda, Satish, and Sidhant Jena. "Augmenix: Space to Think Differently." Harvard Business School Case 824-031, August 2023.
      • August 2023
      • Article

      Can Security Design Foster Household Risk-Taking?

      By: Laurent Calvet, Claire Célérier, Paolo Sodini and Boris Vallée
      This paper shows that securities with a non-linear payoff design can foster household risk-taking. We demonstrate this effect empirically by exploiting the introduction of capital guarantee products in Sweden from 2002 to 2007. The fast and broad adoption of these... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Innovation; Household Finance; Structured Products; Stock Market Participation; Finance; Innovation and Invention; Household; Personal Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior; Market Participation
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      Calvet, Laurent, Claire Célérier, Paolo Sodini, and Boris Vallée. "Can Security Design Foster Household Risk-Taking?" Journal of Finance 78, no. 4 (August 2023): 1917–1966.
      • July–August 2023
      • Article

      Investing in Growth Through Uncertainty

      By: Ranjay Gulati
      When faced with disruptions and downturns, many leaders and companies instinctively focus on cutting costs to maintain profitability. But some identify opportunities and then take thoughtful action to emerge from crisis even stronger. That means not only planning for... View Details
      Keywords: Crisis Management; Strategic Planning
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      Gulati, Ranjay. "Investing in Growth Through Uncertainty." Harvard Business Review 101, no. 4 (July–August 2023): 36–42.
      • 2023
      • Other Unpublished Work

      Visions of Vision Pro

      By: Randolph B. Cohen
      Daily ups and downs of the market are often driven by changes in interest-rate expectations and investor risk aversion. But over the long run, it's often technological change that is the primary driver of value. A decade ago, Tyler Cowen argued in his book The Great... View Details
      Keywords: Technological Innovation; Disruptive Innovation; Product Launch
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      Cohen, Randolph B. "Visions of Vision Pro." August 2023. (LinkedIn Articles.)
      • July 2023 (Revised May 2024)
      • Case

      Vytal: Packaging-as-a-Service

      By: George Serafeim, Michael W. Toffel, Lena Duchene and Daniela Beyersdorfer
      The Germany-based startup Vytal operated the largest digital-native reusable packaging-as-a-service network globally, having raised nearly €15 million, established a large network of restaurant partners, and prevented the use of millions of single-use take-out food... View Details
      Keywords: Climate Risk; Digital; Platform Strategies; Data; Packaging; Sustainability; Start-up; Startup; Entrepreneur; Impact; Circular; Growth Strategy; Innovation; Environmental Sustainability; Innovation and Invention; Business Growth and Maturation; Growth and Development Strategy; Business Startups; Resource Allocation; Risk Management; Adoption; Strategy; Performance Productivity; Service Delivery; Service Operations; Supply Chain; Distribution; Entrepreneurship; Climate Change; Green Technology Industry; Service Industry; Retail Industry; Germany; Europe
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      Serafeim, George, Michael W. Toffel, Lena Duchene, and Daniela Beyersdorfer. "Vytal: Packaging-as-a-Service." Harvard Business School Case 124-007, July 2023. (Revised May 2024.)
      • July 2023
      • Case

      HealthVerity: Real World Data and Evidence

      By: Satish Tadikonda
      Andrew Kress (CEO and founder) and his team had built a promising marketplace business at HealthVerity serving its core market in healthcare, with a focus on pharmaceutical R&D and services. Thus far, HealthVerity’s products had been unique to the pharma and pharma... View Details
      Keywords: Growth and Development Strategy; Market Entry and Exit; Product Marketing
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      Tadikonda, Satish. "HealthVerity: Real World Data and Evidence." Harvard Business School Case 824-019, July 2023.
      • July 2023
      • Article

      Before or After? The Effects of Payment Decision Timing in Pay-What-You-Want Contexts

      By: Raghabendra P. KC, Vincent Mak and Elie Ofek
      We study how payment decision timing—before versus after product delivery—influences consumer payment under pay-what-you-want pricing. We focus on situations where there is minimal change in consumer uncertainty regarding the product before versus after receiving it.... View Details
      Keywords: Price; Behavior; Valuation; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving
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      KC, Raghabendra P., Vincent Mak, and Elie Ofek. "Before or After? The Effects of Payment Decision Timing in Pay-What-You-Want Contexts." Journal of Marketing 87, no. 4 (July 2023): 618–635.
      • July–August 2023
      • Article

      Case Study: How Should a Start-Up Cut Its Burn Rate?

      By: Nitin Nohria, Katie Josephson, Sophia Wronsky and Elizabeth Rha
      Tyler Smith, the founder and CEO of the enterprise software firm Puck.io, is facing a hard decision. Just three months earlier the company laid off 20% of its employees to reduce its burn rate amid growing economic uncertainty and a suddenly unattractive funding... View Details
      Keywords: Employees; Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Governing and Advisory Boards; Business and Shareholder Relations; Business or Company Management; Business Startups
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      Nohria, Nitin, Katie Josephson, Sophia Wronsky, and Elizabeth Rha. "Case Study: How Should a Start-Up Cut Its Burn Rate?" Harvard Business Review 101, no. 4 (July–August 2023): 144–149.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      The Market for Sharing Interest Rate Risk: Quantities and Asset Prices

      By: Ishita Sen, Umang Khetan, Jane Li and Ioana Neamtu
      We study the extent of interest rate risk sharing across the financial system using granular positions and transactions data in interest rate swaps. We show that pension and insurance (PF&I) sector emerges as a natural counterparty to banks and corporations: overall,... View Details
      Keywords: Interest Rates; Investment Funds; Banks and Banking; Insurance; Investment Banking; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Sen, Ishita, Umang Khetan, Jane Li, and Ioana Neamtu. "The Market for Sharing Interest Rate Risk: Quantities and Asset Prices." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-052, February 2024.
      • 2023
      • Book

      The State and Capitalism in China

      By: Meg Rithmire, Margaret M. Pearson and Kellee S. Tsai
      This element explains China's political economic evolution from state socialist economy to a reform era state capitalism model to a more politicized, risk management approach we call "party-state capitalism." We emphasize the internal and external sources of perceived... View Details
      Keywords: China's Political Economy; State Capitalism; State-business Relations; State Ownership; Economic Systems; Government and Politics; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Business and Government Relations; China
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      Rithmire, Meg, Margaret M. Pearson, and Kellee S. Tsai. The State and Capitalism in China. Cambridge Elements, Elements in Politics and Society in East Asia. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2023.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Second- versus Third-party Audit Quality: Evidence from Global Supply Chain Monitoring

      By: Maria R. Ibanez, Ashley Palmarozzo, Jodi L. Short and Michael W. Toffel
      Capitalizing on the superior credibility and flexibility and potential lower cost of external assessments, many global buyers are relying less on their own employee (“second-party”) auditors and more on third-party auditors to monitor and prevent environmental and... View Details
      Keywords: Auditing; Audit Quality; Working Conditions; Sustainability; Empirical Operations; Empirical Service Operations; Sustainability Management; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Supply Chain Management
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      Ibanez, Maria R., Ashley Palmarozzo, Jodi L. Short, and Michael W. Toffel. "Second- versus Third-party Audit Quality: Evidence from Global Supply Chain Monitoring." Working Paper, August 2024.
      • June 2023 (Revised July 2023)
      • Case

      Social Media Background Screening at Fama Technologies

      By: Joseph Pacelli, Jillian Grennan and Alexis Lefort
      Fama Technologies is an online screening company that uses AI to analyze job applicants' publicly available online content for signs of risk and culture fit. The case opens with Ben Mones, founder and CEO, looking to secure funding from venture firms. He is running... View Details
      Keywords: Human Resources; Recruitment; Retention; Selection and Staffing; Organizational Culture; Talent and Talent Management; AI and Machine Learning; Social Media; Venture Capital; Entrepreneurship; United States
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      Pacelli, Joseph, Jillian Grennan, and Alexis Lefort. "Social Media Background Screening at Fama Technologies." Harvard Business School Case 123-010, June 2023. (Revised July 2023.)
      • June 2023
      • Supplement

      Social Media Background Screening at Fama Technologies (B)

      By: Joseph Pacelli, Jillian Grennan and Alexis Lefort
      Fama Technologies is an online screening company that uses AI to analyze job applicants' publicly available online content for signs of risk and culture fit. The case opens with Ben Mones, founder and CEO, looking to secure funding from venture firms. He is running... View Details
      Keywords: Human Resources; Recruitment; Retention; Selection and Staffing; Organizational Culture; Talent and Talent Management; United States
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      Pacelli, Joseph, Jillian Grennan, and Alexis Lefort. "Social Media Background Screening at Fama Technologies (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 123-086, June 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Insufficiently Justified Disparate Impact: A New Criterion for Subgroup Fairness

      By: Neil Menghani, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
      In this paper, we develop a new criterion, "insufficiently justified disparate impact" (IJDI), for assessing whether recommendations (binarized predictions) made by an algorithmic decision support tool are fair. Our novel, utility-based IJDI criterion evaluates false... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Prejudice and Bias
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      Menghani, Neil, Edward McFowland III, and Daniel B. Neill. "Insufficiently Justified Disparate Impact: A New Criterion for Subgroup Fairness." Working Paper, June 2023.
      • June 2023
      • Case

      Investing in the Climate Transition at Neuberger Berman

      By: George Serafeim and Benjamin Maletta
      By mid-2023, Neuberger Berman (NB), an active asset manager, had grown its assets under management to about half a trillion dollars and took pride in its client centricity and innovative spirit. Responding to client demand for investment products that integrated... View Details
      Keywords: Carbon Emissions; Sustainability; Decarbonization; Performance; Risk Assessment; Opportunities; Environmental Sustainability; Carbon Footprint; Business Analysis; Investing; Regulation; Asset Management; Investment Strategy; Climate Change; Transition; Analysis; Product Positioning; Strategy; Investment Portfolio; Financial Services Industry; Energy Industry
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      Serafeim, George, and Benjamin Maletta. "Investing in the Climate Transition at Neuberger Berman." Harvard Business School Case 123-092, June 2023.
      • 3 Jun 2023
      • Talk

      Health Care Innovation Opportunities Created by COVID-19 and How to Make Them Happen

      By: Regina E. Herzlinger
      The crush of patients created by COVID enabled the creation of sites for care outside the traditional hospital, such as retail pharmacies, ambulatory surgery centers, urgent care centers, telemedicine, and wireless sensors. Public policy mirrored these changes by... View Details
      Keywords: Policy; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Innovation and Invention; Health Industry; Insurance Industry
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      Herzlinger, Regina E. "Health Care Innovation Opportunities Created by COVID-19 and How to Make Them Happen." Harvard Business School Alumni Reunion, Boston, MA, June 3, 2023. (Link to cases described in this talk.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation

      By: Dae Woong Ham, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley and Iavor Bojinov
      Randomized experiments have become the standard method for companies to evaluate the performance of new products or services. In addition to augmenting managers’ decision-making, experimentation mitigates risk by limiting the proportion of customers exposed to... View Details
      Keywords: Performance Evaluation; Research and Development; Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior
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      Ham, Dae Woong, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley, and Iavor Bojinov. "Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-070, May 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Auditing Predictive Models for Intersectional Biases

      By: Kate S. Boxer, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
      Predictive models that satisfy group fairness criteria in aggregate for members of a protected class, but do not guarantee subgroup fairness, could produce biased predictions for individuals at the intersection of two or more protected classes. To address this risk, we... View Details
      Keywords: Predictive Models; Bias; AI and Machine Learning
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      Boxer, Kate S., Edward McFowland III, and Daniel B. Neill. "Auditing Predictive Models for Intersectional Biases." Working Paper, June 2023.
      • June 2023 (Revised February 2024)
      • Case

      Betting on Green Steel

      By: George Serafeim and Sofoklis Melissovas
      'Betting on Green Steel' traces the innovative journey embarked upon by a group of MBA students who have set out to conceive a novel steelmaker that pioneers the production of green steel. The ensemble is confronted with a series of critical choices that will shape the... View Details
      Keywords: Decarbonization; Sustainability Management; Technology; Industrialization; Climate Risk; Energy; Entrepreneurship; Environmental Sustainability; Technology Adoption; Climate Change; Innovation and Invention; Business Strategy; Family Business; Steel Industry; Middle East; India
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      Serafeim, George, and Sofoklis Melissovas. "Betting on Green Steel." Harvard Business School Case 123-101, June 2023. (Revised February 2024.)
      • June 2023
      • Article

      Can Purpose Foster Stakeholder Trust in Corporations

      By: Ranjay Gulati and Franz Wohlgezogen
      As part of institutional changes toward more responsible capitalism, firms increasingly articulate a purpose beyond simply profit as a central tenet of their governance. Management scholarship has noted the potential advantages of such purpose-focus for stakeholder... View Details
      Keywords: Stakeholder Management; Moral Identity; Mission and Purpose; Trust; Corporate Governance; Business and Stakeholder Relations
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      Gulati, Ranjay, and Franz Wohlgezogen. "Can Purpose Foster Stakeholder Trust in Corporations." Strategy Science 8, no. 2 (June 2023): 270–287.
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