Predictive Models - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2002
Other Unpublished Work

Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein

We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity—such as lower bid–ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover—predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational... View Details

Keywords: Price; Financial Liquidity; Trade; Valuation; Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Stock Shares; Investment Return

January 2019
Article

Making Moves Matter: Experimental Evidence on Incentivizing Bureaucrats Through Performance-Based Postings

By: Adnan Q. Khan, Asim Ijaz Khwaja and Benjamin A. Olken

Bureaucracies often post staff to better or worse locations, ostensibly to provide incentives. Yet we know little about whether this works, with heterogeneity in preferences over postings impacting effectiveness. We propose a performance-ranked serial dictatorship... View Details

Keywords: Serial Dictatorship Mechanism; Employment; Geographic Location; Motivation and Incentives; Performance

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2011
Chapter

Regional Trade Integration and Multinational Firm Strategies

By: Pol Antras and C. Fritz Foley

This paper analyzes the effects of the formation of a regional trade agreement on the level and nature of multinational firm activity. We examine aggregate data that captures the response of U.S. multinational firms to the formation of the ASEAN free trade agreement.... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Trade; Foreign Direct Investment; Multinational Firms and Management; Globalized Markets and Industries; Analytics and Data Science; Agreements and Arrangements; United States

2023
Article

On the Impact of Actionable Explanations on Social Segregation

By: Ruijiang Gao and Himabindu Lakkaraju

As predictive models seep into several real-world applications, it has become critical to ensure that individuals who are negatively impacted by the outcomes of these models are provided with a means for recourse. To this end, there has been a growing body of research... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Outcome or Result

06 Oct 2008
Research & Ideas

Updating a Classic: Writing a Great Business Plan

business plan and its relation to new venture formation. I tried to explain that a business plan can't be a tightly crafted prediction of the future but rather a depiction of how events might unfold and a road map for change. I emphasized... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne

April 2021
Case

Distinct Software

By: Das Narayandas, Arijit Sengupta and Jonathan Wray

Distinct Software (disguised name), a global enterprise software company, is at an important point in its growth trajectory where the luster of its mantra of “grow and win at any cost” has dimmed with increasing competition and margin pressures. To help navigate its... View Details

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Marketing; Sales; Performance Productivity; Technological Innovation; AI and Machine Learning

November 2024
Supplement

AlphaGo (C): Birth of a New Intelligence

By: Shikhar Ghosh and Shweta Bagai

This case, the final of a three-part series, explores DeepMind's pivotal transition from mastering games to solving real-world scientific challenges. In December 2020, DeepMind's AI system AlphaFold 2 achieved a breakthrough by solving protein folding—a 50-year-old... View Details

Keywords: AI; Artificial Intelligence; Machine Learning; Research; Autonomy; Deep Learning; Drug Discovery; Healthcare Innovation; Neural Networks; Information Technology; Research And Development; Scientific Research; Technology Startup; AI and Machine Learning; Technological Innovation; United States

"Learning Through Noticing: Theory and Evidence from a Field Experiment"

We consider a model of technological learning under which people "learn through noticing": they choose which input dimensions to attend to and subsequently learn about from available data. Using this model, we show how people with a great deal of experience may... View Details

April 2015
Article

Money Creation and the Shadow Banking System

By: Adi Sunderam

Many explanations for the rapid growth of the shadow banking system in the mid-2000s focus on money demand. This paper asks whether the short-term liabilities of the shadow banking system behave like money. We first present a simple model where households demand money... View Details

Keywords: Financial Instruments; Banks and Banking

March 2002 (Revised November 2003)
Case

Satellite Radio

By: Thomas R. Eisenmann and Alastair Brown

In early 2002, XM and Sirius were fighting for control of the emerging U.S. market for satellite radio. Each company targeted consumers in automobiles, providing 100 channels of CD-quality audio for a monthly subscription fee of $10-$13. Wall Street analysts predicted... View Details

Keywords: Growth and Development Strategy; Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Problems and Challenges; Network Effects; Partners and Partnerships; Information Technology; Business Model; Investment Return; Auto Industry; Media and Broadcasting Industry; United States

2023
Working Paper

Complexity and Time

By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea

We provide experimental evidence that core intertemporal choice anomalies -- including extreme short-run impatience, structural estimates of present bias, hyperbolicity and transitivity violations -- are driven by complexity rather than time or risk preferences. First,... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Motivation and Incentives

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Article

Evolution of Land Distribution in West Bengal 1967–2004: Role of Land Reform and Demographic Changes

By: Pranab Bardhan, Michael Luca, Dilip Mookherjee and Francisco Pino

This paper studies how land reform and population growth affect land inequality and landlessness, focusing particularly on indirect effects owing to their influence on household divisions and land market transactions. Theoretical predictions of a model of household... View Details

Keywords: Inequality; Land Reform; Household Division; Land Markets; Equality and Inequality; Residency; Property; Household; West Bengal

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2014
Other Unpublished Work

Evolution of Land Distribution in West Bengal 1967-2004: Role of Land Reform and Demographic Changes

By: Pranab Bardhan, Michael Luca, Dilip Mookherjee and Francisco Pino

This paper examines the indirect effect of land reform and demographic changes on land inequality operating through induced household divisions and land market transactions. We develop an intra-household model of joint production where divisions, out-migration or land... View Details

Keywords: Inequality; Land Reform; Household Division; Land Markets; Equality and Inequality; Property; Household; Change; West Bengal

2011
Chapter

An Exploration of the Japanese Slowdown during the 1990s

By: Diego A. Comin

Why was the 1990s a lost decade for Japan? How is it possible that the Japanese economy stagnated for a decade if none of the shocks that arguably hit the economy seemed to have persisted for much more than three years or so? In this paper I show that the endogenous... View Details

Keywords: Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Performance Productivity; Mathematical Methods; Research and Development; Technology Adoption; Japan

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26 Mar 2007
Research & Ideas

Learning from Failed Political Leadership

people's minds. This book takes a long look ahead—yes, the future can and must be envisaged, and it can be done well—and devises a strategy based on what is to come, not what is past. Business leaders must be able to predict the changing... View Details

Keywords: by Martha Lagace

Article

Crowdsourcing City Government: Using Tournaments to Improve Inspection Accuracy

By: Edward Glaeser, Andrew Hillis, Scott Duke Kominers and Michael Luca

The proliferation of big data makes it possible to better target city services like hygiene inspections, but city governments rarely have the in-house talent needed for developing prediction algorithms. Cities could hire consultants, but a cheaper alternative is to... View Details

Keywords: User-generated Content; Operations; Tournaments; Policy-making; Machine Learning; Online Platforms; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods; City; Infrastructure; Business Processes; Government and Politics

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December 2014
Article

Selecting the Best? Spillover and Shadows in Elimination Tournaments

By: Jennifer Brown and Dylan B. Minor

We consider how past, current, and future competition within an elimination tournament affect the probability that the stronger player wins. We present a two-stage model that yields the following main results: (1) a shadow effect—the stronger the expected future... View Details

Keywords: Elimination Tournament; Dynamic Contest; Contest Design; Effort Choice; Betting Markets; Competitive Advantage; Game Theory

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2014
Working Paper

Evolution of Land Distribution in West Bengal 1967-2004: Role of Land Reform and Demographic Changes

By: Pranab Bardhan, Michael Luca, Dilip Mookherjee and Francisco Pino

This paper studies how land reform and population growth affect land inequality and landlessness, focusing particularly on indirect effects owing to their influence on household divisions and land market transactions. Theoretical predictions of a model of household... View Details

Keywords: Inequality; Land Reform; Household Division; Land Markets; Equality and Inequality; Property; West Bengal

October 2007
Journal Article

Psychosocial Development and Leader Performance of Military Officer Cadets

By: Scott Snook and Paul T. Bartone

Efforts to educate and develop future military officers aim to produce highly competent, ethical and effective leaders to serve the nation. But while there is general agreement about desired outcomes, the underlying developmental processes associated with these... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Leadership Development; Performance Evaluation; Personal Development and Career; Social Psychology

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October 2014 (Revised August 2018)
Case

Caesars Entertainment

By: Janice H. Hammond and Aldo Sesia

This case describes the introduction of a regression analysis model for forecasting guest arrivals to Caesars Palace hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada. The company will use the forecast to staff the front desk in the hotel. The staff is unionized and the company has little... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting; Staffing; Gaming; Gaming Industry; Hotel Industry; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Human Resources; Selection and Staffing; Entertainment; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Operations; Service Delivery; Service Operations; Accommodations Industry; Travel Industry; Tourism Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Las Vegas

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