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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(3,385)
- News (517)
- Research (2,490)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (18)
- Faculty Publications (1,611)
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- November 1974 (Revised November 1977)
- Background Note
Developing Forecasts with the Aid of Regression Analysis
By: Paul A. Vatter
Vatter, Paul A. "Developing Forecasts with the Aid of Regression Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 175-105, November 1974. (Revised November 1977.)
- Article
Beyond Dislike: Blatant Dehumanization Predicts Teacher Discrimination
By: Emile Bruneau, Hanna Szekeres, Nour Kteily, Linda Tropp and Anna Kende
Bruneau, Emile, Hanna Szekeres, Nour Kteily, Linda Tropp, and Anna Kende. "Beyond Dislike: Blatant Dehumanization Predicts Teacher Discrimination." Group Processes & Intergroup Relations 23, no. 4 (June 2020): 560–577.
- 1992
- Chapter
Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market
By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; International Finance; Currency Exchange Rate; Asset Pricing; Forecasting and Prediction; Policy
Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market." In International Business Reader, edited by D. Duta. London: Oxford University Press, 1992. (Revised from IMF Working Paper No. 90/43 and NBER Working Paper No. 3470, October 1990.)
- Article
A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction
By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert and Alvin E. Roth
A choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from experience in market entry games (http://sites.google.com/site/gpredcomp/ and http://www.mdpi.com/si/games/predict-behavior/). The competition is based on two experiments: An estimation... View Details
Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Market Entry and Exit; Game Theory; Behavior; Competition
Erev, Ido, Eyal Ert, and Alvin E. Roth. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction." Special Issue on Predicting Behavior in Games. Games 1, no. 2 (June 2010): 117–136.
- October 2014
- Supplement
Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 Powerpoint Supplement
By: Mihir Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer
This is the PowerPoint supplement to the teaching note: Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) - (B), number 215-022. View Details
Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland
Desai, Mihir, and Elizabeth A. Meyer. "Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 Powerpoint Supplement." Harvard Business School PowerPoint Supplement 215-023, October 2014.
- 2025
- Working Paper
Enhancing Treatment Effect Prediction on Privacy-Protected Data: An Honest Post-Processing Approach
By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
As firms increasingly rely on customer data for personalization, concerns over privacy and regulatory compliance have grown. Local Differential Privacy (LDP) offers strong individual-level protection by injecting noise into data before collection. While... View Details
Keywords: Targeted Intervention; Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation; Differential Privacy; Honest Estimation; Post-processing; Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior; Marketing
Huang, Ta-Wei, and Eva Ascarza. "Enhancing Treatment Effect Prediction on Privacy-Protected Data: An Honest Post-Processing Approach." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-034, December 2023. (Revised March 2025.)
- 1995
- Chapter
Alternative Models of Negotiated Outcomes and the Nontraditional Utility Concerns That Limit Their Predictability
By: S. B. White, M. H. Bazerman and M. A. Neale
White, S. B., M. H. Bazerman, and M. A. Neale. "Alternative Models of Negotiated Outcomes and the Nontraditional Utility Concerns That Limit Their Predictability." In Research on Negotiation in Organizations, edited by R. J. Bies, R. Lewicki, and B. Sheppard. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, 1995.
- October 2014
- Supplement
Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 Excel Supplement
By: Mihir Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer
This is the Excel Supplement to Teaching Note 215-022: Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) - (B). View Details
Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; United States; Republic of Ireland
- 09 Dec 2015
- Research Event
How Do You Predict Demand and Set Prices For Products Never Sold Before?
predictive and prescriptive analytics can be combined to develop a tactical decision-making tool that makes a big impact on the bottom line. For details about the research and... View Details
- 2018
- Working Paper
Averaging Probability Forecasts: Back to the Future
By: Robert L. Winkler, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. and Victor Richmond R. Jose
The use and aggregation of probability forecasts in practice is on the rise. In this position piece, we explore some recent, and not so recent, developments concerning the use of probability forecasts in decision-making. Despite these advances, challenges still exist.... View Details
Keywords: Probability Forecast; Forecast Combination; Forecast Evaluation; Decision Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Making; Analysis
Winkler, Robert L., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., and Victor Richmond R. Jose. "Averaging Probability Forecasts: Back to the Future." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-039, October 2018.
- 2006
- Working Paper
Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning
To date, little research has been done on managing the organizational and political dimensions of generating and improving forecasts in corporate settings. We examine the implementation of a supply chain planning process at a consumer electronics company, concentrating... View Details
Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Business or Company Management; Supply Chain Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Planning; Electronics Industry
Oliva, Rogelio, and Noel Watson. "Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-024, October 2006. (Revised March 2007, January 2008.)
- Article
On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills
By: Robert C. Merton and Roy D. Henriksson
Merton, Robert C., and Roy D. Henriksson. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills." Journal of Business 54, no. 4 (October 1981): 513–533.
- May 2024
- Article
Relational Attributions for One’s Own Resilience Predict Compassion for Others
By: Rachel Ruttan, Ting Zhang, Sivahn Barli and Katherine DeCelles
Existing work on attribution theory distinguishes between external and internal attributions (i.e., “I overcame adversity due to luck” vs. “my own effort”). We introduce the construct of relational resilience attributions (i.e., “due to help from other people”) as a... View Details
Ruttan, Rachel, Ting Zhang, Sivahn Barli, and Katherine DeCelles. "Relational Attributions for One’s Own Resilience Predict Compassion for Others." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 126, no. 5 (May 2024): 818–840.
- 02 Nov 2006
- Working Paper Summaries
Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning
Keywords: by Rogelio Oliva & Noel H. Watson
- January 2021
- Article
How Personality and Policy Predict Pandemic Behavior: Understanding Sheltering-in-Place in 55 Countries at the Onset of COVID-19
By: Friedrich M. Götz, Andrés Gvirtz, Adam D. Galinsky and Jon M. Jachimowicz
The spread of COVID-19 within any given country or community at the onset of the pandemic depended in part on the sheltering-in-place rate of its citizens. The pandemic led us to revisit one of psychology’s most fundamental and most basic questions in a high-stakes... View Details
Keywords: COVID; COVID-19; Pandemic; Shelter-in-place; Personality; Government; Interactionism; Health Pandemics; Behavior; Personal Characteristics; Policy; Governance Compliance
Götz, Friedrich M., Andrés Gvirtz, Adam D. Galinsky, and Jon M. Jachimowicz. "How Personality and Policy Predict Pandemic Behavior: Understanding Sheltering-in-Place in 55 Countries at the Onset of COVID-19." American Psychologist 76, no. 1 (January 2021): 39–49.
- May 2022
- Supplement
Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI (B)
By: Navid Mojir and Gamze Yucaoglu
Borusan Cat is an international distributor of Caterpillar heavy machines. In 2021, it had been three years since Ozgur Gunaydin (CEO) and Esra Durgun (Director of Strategy, Digitization, and Innovation) started working on Muneccim, the company’s predictive AI tool.... View Details
Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Commercialization; Technology Adoption; Industrial Products Industry; Turkey; Middle East
Mojir, Navid, and Gamze Yucaoglu. "Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 522-045, May 2022.
- 2011
- Article
A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction
By: Eyal Ert, Ido Erev and Alvin E. Roth
Two independent, but related, choice prediction competitions are organized that focus on behavior in simple two-person extensive form games: one focuses on predicting the choices of the first mover and the other on predicting the choices of the second mover. The... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions; Competition; Motivation and Incentives; Game Theory; Fairness
Ert, Eyal, Ido Erev, and Alvin E. Roth. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction." Special Issue on Predicting Behavior in Games. Games 2, no. 3 (September 2011): 257–276.
- Article
Attention Prediction on Social Media Brand Pages
By: Himabindu Lakkaraju and Jitendra Ajmera
Lakkaraju, Himabindu, and Jitendra Ajmera. "Attention Prediction on Social Media Brand Pages." Proceedings of the ACM Conference on Information and Knowledge Management 20th (2011).
- May 2022
- Article
Coins for Bombs: The Predictive Ability of On-Chain Transfers for Terrorist Attacks
By: Dan Amiram, Evgeny Lyandres and Daniel Rabetti
This study examines whether we can learn from the behavior of blockchain-based transfers to predict the financing of terrorist attacks. We exploit blockchain transaction transparency to map millions of transfers for hundreds of large on-chain service providers. The... View Details
Keywords: Blockchain; Bitcoin; Accounting; AI and Machine Learning; National Security; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms
Amiram, Dan, Evgeny Lyandres, and Daniel Rabetti. "Coins for Bombs: The Predictive Ability of On-Chain Transfers for Terrorist Attacks." Journal of Accounting Research 60, no. 2 (May 2022): 427–466.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight
By: Aticus Peterson and Andy Wu
We study how learning by experience across projects affects an entrepreneur's strategic foresight. In a quantitative study of 314 entrepreneurs across 722 crowdfunded projects supplemented with a program of qualitative interviews, we counterintuitively find that... View Details
Keywords: Experience; Interdependency; Strategic Foresight; Crowdfunding; Timeline; Delay; Forecasting; Entrepreneurship; Learning; Complexity; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Development; Planning
Peterson, Aticus, and Andy Wu. "Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-123, January 2021. (Revised May 2021.)