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(3,298)
- News (517)
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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(3,298)
- News (517)
- Research (2,507)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (18)
- Faculty Publications (1,615)
- 2013
- Article
What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting
By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, Andreas Fuster, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian
Do laboratory subjects correctly perceive the dynamics of a mean-reverting time series? In our experiment, subjects receive historical data and make forecasts at different horizons. The time series process that we use features short-run momentum and long-run partial... View Details
Beshears, John, James J. Choi, Andreas Fuster, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian. "What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 103, no. 3 (May 2013): 570–574.
- 2023
- Chapter
Analyzing Human Decisions and Machine Predictions in Bail Decision Making
By: Jon Kleinberg, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig and Sendhil Mullainathan
BOOK ABSTRACT: Oriented toward the introductory student, The Inequality Reader is the essential textbook for today's undergraduate courses. The editors have assembled the most important classic and contemporary readings about how poverty and inequality are... View Details
Keywords: Equality and Inequality
Kleinberg, Jon, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig, and Sendhil Mullainathan. "Analyzing Human Decisions and Machine Predictions in Bail Decision Making." In The Inequality Reader: Contemporary and Foundational Readings in Race, Class, and Gender. 3rd edition, edited by David B. Grusky and Szonja Szelényi. Routledge, forthcoming.
- 15 Aug 2016
- Research & Ideas
Black Swans and Big Trends Can Ruin Anyone's Internet Prediction
how we thought about online opportunities one year after the dot-com bubble burst. In retrospect, many of my thoughts about the internet’s future evolution missed the mark. If you think history repeats itself, then these forecasting... View Details
- 31 Oct 2017
- News
Predictions for the Future of Small Business Lending and Fintech
- January 1982
- Case
New York Telephone Co.: The 1975 Revenue Forecast
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "New York Telephone Co.: The 1975 Revenue Forecast." Harvard Business School Case 182-060, January 1982.
- January 1982 (Revised May 1983)
- Case
CBS Record Co. (A): The Long-Range Industry Forecast
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "CBS Record Co. (A): The Long-Range Industry Forecast." Harvard Business School Case 182-182, January 1982. (Revised May 1983.)
- April 2021 (Revised August 2021)
- Case
Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI (A)
By: Navid Mojir and Gamze Yucaoglu
Borusan Cat is an international distributor of Caterpillar heavy machines. Esra Durgun (Director of Strategy, Digitization, and Innovation) and Ozgur Gunaydin (CEO) seem to have bet their careers on developing Muneccim, a new predictive technology that is designed to... View Details
Keywords: Monetization Strategy; Artificial Intelligence; AI; Forecasting and Prediction; Applications and Software; Technological Innovation; Marketing; Segmentation; AI and Machine Learning; Construction Industry; Turkey
Mojir, Navid, and Gamze Yucaoglu. "Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI (A)." Harvard Business School Case 521-053, April 2021. (Revised August 2021.)
- November 2023
- Article
Knowledge About the Source of Emotion Predicts Emotion-Regulation Attempts, Strategies, and Perceived Emotion-Regulation Success
By: Yael Millgram, Matthew K. Nock, David D. Bailey and Amit Goldenberg
People’s ability to regulate emotions is crucial to healthy emotional functioning. One overlooked aspect in emotion-regulation research is that knowledge about the source of emotions can vary across situations and individuals, which could impact people’s ability to... View Details
Millgram, Yael, Matthew K. Nock, David D. Bailey, and Amit Goldenberg. "Knowledge About the Source of Emotion Predicts Emotion-Regulation Attempts, Strategies, and Perceived Emotion-Regulation Success." Psychological Science 34, no. 11 (November 2023): 1244–1255.
- Article
The Relation between Analysts' Long-Term Earnings Forecasts and Stock Performance following Equity Offerings
By: P. Dechow, A. Hutton and R. Sloan
Dechow, P., A. Hutton, and R. Sloan. "The Relation between Analysts' Long-Term Earnings Forecasts and Stock Performance following Equity Offerings." Contemporary Accounting Research 17, no. 3 (Fall 2000).
- June 2014
- Supplement
Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (B)
By: Mihir Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer
This case is meant to accompany Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) and details the results of Apple's Q2 2013 earnings call. View Details
Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland
Desai, Mihir, and Elizabeth A. Meyer. "Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 214-094, June 2014.
- October 2014
- Supplement
Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 Excel Supplement
By: Mihir Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer
This is the Excel Supplement to Teaching Note 215-022: Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) - (B). View Details
Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; United States; Republic of Ireland
- 2023
- Article
Provable Detection of Propagating Sampling Bias in Prediction Models
By: Pavan Ravishankar, Qingyu Mo, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
With an increased focus on incorporating fairness in machine learning models, it becomes imperative not only to assess and mitigate bias at each stage of the machine learning pipeline but also to understand the downstream impacts of bias across stages. Here we consider... View Details
Ravishankar, Pavan, Qingyu Mo, Edward McFowland III, and Daniel B. Neill. "Provable Detection of Propagating Sampling Bias in Prediction Models." Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 37, no. 8 (2023): 9562–9569. (Presented at the 37th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (2/7/23-2/14/23) in Washington, DC.)
- 2018
- Working Paper
Averaging Probability Forecasts: Back to the Future
By: Robert L. Winkler, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. and Victor Richmond R. Jose
The use and aggregation of probability forecasts in practice is on the rise. In this position piece, we explore some recent, and not so recent, developments concerning the use of probability forecasts in decision-making. Despite these advances, challenges still exist.... View Details
Keywords: Probability Forecast; Forecast Combination; Forecast Evaluation; Decision Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Making; Analysis
Winkler, Robert L., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., and Victor Richmond R. Jose. "Averaging Probability Forecasts: Back to the Future." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-039, October 2018.
- November 1974 (Revised November 1977)
- Background Note
Developing Forecasts with the Aid of Regression Analysis
By: Paul A. Vatter
Vatter, Paul A. "Developing Forecasts with the Aid of Regression Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 175-105, November 1974. (Revised November 1977.)
- 2016
- Chapter
Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity." Chap. 10 in Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities, edited by Pietro Veronesi, 191–209. Wiley Handbooks in Financial Engineering and Econometrics. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2016.
- 10 Dec 2015
- News
Can Google Street View Images Predict Household Income?
- June 2014
- Supplement
Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 Student Supplement
By: Mihir Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer
This is the student spreadsheet supplement to case 214-085, Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A). View Details
Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland
- 1992
- Chapter
Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market
By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; International Finance; Currency Exchange Rate; Asset Pricing; Forecasting and Prediction; Policy
Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market." In International Business Reader, edited by D. Duta. London: Oxford University Press, 1992. (Revised from IMF Working Paper No. 90/43 and NBER Working Paper No. 3470, October 1990.)
- 01 Mar 2013
- Working Paper Summaries