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- Faculty Publications (149)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web (385)
- Faculty Publications (149)
- January 2010
- Article
The Role of Experience in the Gambler's Fallacy
By: Greg Barron and Stephen Leider
Recent papers have demonstrated that the way people acquire information about a decision problem, by experience or by abstract description, can affect their behavior. We examined the role of experience over time in the emergence of the Gambler's Fallacy in binary... View Details
Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Acquisition; Outcome or Result; Game Theory; Prejudice and Bias
Barron, Greg, and Stephen Leider. "The Role of Experience in the Gambler's Fallacy." Special Issue on Decisions from Experience. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 23, no. 1 (January 2010).
- 11 Apr 2024
- News
Mission Control
Subscribe on iTunes Subscribe on Spotify More Skydeck episodes Hi, this is Dan Morrell, host of Skydeck. By the time Peter Platzer (MBA 2002) was a teenager, he knew he wanted to be a physicist—and he was fascinated by space, eagerly engrossed in space-time diagrams... View Details
- 10 Oct 2011
- Research & Ideas
Retailing Revolution: Category Killers on the Brink
productivity would improve—especially as the bricks-and-clicks retail model worked in an increasingly coordinated manner to offer the consumer a seamless shopping experience. The Internet Threat While recent retail sales figures seem to... View Details
- 18 Jul 2019
- Lessons from the Classroom
The Internet of Things Needs a Business Model. Here It Is
sensors can be combined with weather forecasting to help energy companies figure out the optimal amount of electricity they should sell into the grid. “Very little human intervention is needed,” Lal says. Other companies have been... View Details
- 01 Oct 2013
- First Look
First Look: October 1
Management Strategy Ex-Ante Agreements in Standard Setting and Patent Pool Formation By: Llanes, Gastón, and Joaquín Poblete Abstract—We present a model of standard setting and patent-pool formation. We study the effects of alternative... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 01 Dec 2022
- News
Singing to the Corn
Beans, and Mandan Squash—the “Three Sisters” of Native American lore that thrive when planted together—Sacred Seed is modeling a different approach based on agricultural practices that are thousands of years old. Cornstalks provide a... View Details
- 28 May 2020
- Research & Ideas
Coronavirus Could Create a 'Bankruptcy Pandemic'
economic recovery. Will any of these positive developments materialize? The fact is, forecasting the number of bankruptcies presents the same modeling challenges as forecasting... View Details
- Web
Frequently Asked Questions | HBS Online
on the platform. Participants who fail to complete the course requirements will not receive a certificate and will not be eligible to retake the course. More detailed information on course requirements, including the Adobe Data Driven Operating View Details
- Person Page
Course Development
By: Debora L. Spar
Managing International Trade and Investment
Despite the ease with which it is often conducted, doing business across borders is not the same as doing it at home. Rather, it entails a whole new set of managerial challenges: re-assessing competitive... View Details
- Research Summary
Overview
The overarching goal of my research is to produce works that are influential and informative to both academics and practitioners in the field of operations management. To accomplish this, I collaborate with industry partners who provide knowledge about their field,... View Details
- 16 Oct 2018
- First Look
New Research and Ideas, October 16, 2018
Grushka-Cockayne Abstract—We introduce an exponential smoothing model that a manager can use to forecast the demand of a new product or service. The model has five features... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
- 02 Jun 2010
- First Look
First Look: June 2
gross margin for retailers using historical data. We show that sales forecasts from this model are more accurate than consensus forecasts from equity analysts. Further, the... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- 10 Jan 2005
- Research & Ideas
Professors Introduce Valuation Software
elements of the firm's accounting if they believe that reported data do not capture the economic performance of the company. The model then provides standardized financial statements and financial ratios for the firm to allow users to... View Details
Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne
- 11 Mar 2020
- News
Making It Rain
business dashboards, and other tools for clients. The end results are “microweather” forecasts for clients ranging from major airlines to roofing companies to individual users through a smartphone app. “We’re the only private weather... View Details
Keywords: Lisa Scanlon Mogolov
- Web
Introduction - Option Pricing in Theory & Practice: The Nobel Prize Research of Robert C. Merton - Exhibits - Historical Collections
the trading floor. The model offers a methodology to predict the seemingly unpredictable by using the lessons of complex mathematics and probability theory to forecast stock valuations, making it possible to... View Details
- Web
Introduction - Option Pricing in Theory & Practice: The Nobel Prize Research of Robert C. Merton - Exhibits - Historical Collections
the trading floor. The model offers a methodology to predict the seemingly unpredictable by using the lessons of complex mathematics and probability theory to forecast stock valuations, making it possible to... View Details
- 08 Jan 2008
- First Look
First Look: January 8, 2008
but is difficult when demand history is unavailable such as for new products. One method that can be applied in such cases uses dispersion among forecasting experts as a measure of demand uncertainty. This paper provides a test for this... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- 19 Dec 2006
- First Look
First Look: December 19, 2006
series models within the context of a single-stage stochastic inventory system with periodic review, constant leadtimes, infinite supply, full backlogging, linear holding and penalty costs and no ordering costs. View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 01 Aug 2016
- Research & Ideas
Retail Execs Underplay Current Performance to Investors--but Why?
unreported numbers said. It’s startling to find that managers are not even neutral; they’re somewhat negative.” RESEARCHERS CREATE FORECASTING MODEL To test their ideas, the researchers studied 50 big-box... View Details
- 06 Feb 2007
- First Look
First Look: February 6, 2007
Working PapersThe Rise of Business Forecasting Agencies in the United States Author:Walter A. Friedman Abstract This paper analyzes the rise of business and economic forecasting agencies in the United... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace