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  • August 2020 (Revised September 2020)
  • Technical Note

Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models

By: Michael W. Toffel, Natalie Epstein, Kris Ferreira and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
The note introduces a variety of methods to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models. The note begins by briefly introducing machine learning, overfitting, training versus test datasets, and cross validation. The following accuracy metrics and tools... View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning; Statistics; Econometric Analyses; Experimental Methods; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Mathematical Methods
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Toffel, Michael W., Natalie Epstein, Kris Ferreira, and Yael Grushka-Cockayne. "Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models." Harvard Business School Technical Note 621-045, August 2020. (Revised September 2020.)
  • Article

Crowdsourcing City Government: Using Tournaments to Improve Inspection Accuracy

By: Edward Glaeser, Andrew Hillis, Scott Duke Kominers and Michael Luca
The proliferation of big data makes it possible to better target city services like hygiene inspections, but city governments rarely have the in-house talent needed for developing prediction algorithms. Cities could hire consultants, but a cheaper alternative is to... View Details
Keywords: User-generated Content; Operations; Tournaments; Policy-making; Machine Learning; Online Platforms; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods; City; Infrastructure; Business Processes; Government and Politics
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Glaeser, Edward, Andrew Hillis, Scott Duke Kominers, and Michael Luca. "Crowdsourcing City Government: Using Tournaments to Improve Inspection Accuracy." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 106, no. 5 (May 2016): 114–118.
  • Article

How Elastic Are Preferences for Redistribution? Evidence from Randomized Survey Experiments

By: Ilyana Kuziemko, Michael I. Norton, Emmanuel Saez and Stefanie Stantcheva
We analyze randomized online survey experiments providing interactive, customized information on U.S. income inequality, the link between top income tax rates and economic growth, and the estate tax. The treatment has large effects on views about inequality but only... View Details
Keywords: Income; Taxation; Economic Growth; United States
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Kuziemko, Ilyana, Michael I. Norton, Emmanuel Saez, and Stefanie Stantcheva. "How Elastic Are Preferences for Redistribution? Evidence from Randomized Survey Experiments." American Economic Review 105, no. 4 (April 2015): 1478–1508.
  • June, 2021
  • Article

Learning from Deregulation: The Asymmetric Impact of Lockdown and Reopening on Risky Behavior During COVID-19

By: Edward L. Glaeser, Ginger Zhe Jin, Benjamin T. Leyden and Michael Luca
During the COVID-19 pandemic, states issued and then rescinded stay-at-home orders that restricted mobility. We develop a model of learning by deregulation, which predicts that lifting stay-at-home orders can signal that going out has become safer. Using restaurant... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Lockdown; Reopening; Impact; Coronavirus; Public Health Measures; Mobility; Health Pandemics; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Consumer Behavior
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Glaeser, Edward L., Ginger Zhe Jin, Benjamin T. Leyden, and Michael Luca. "Learning from Deregulation: The Asymmetric Impact of Lockdown and Reopening on Risky Behavior During COVID-19." Journal of Regional Science 61, no. 4 (June, 2021): 696–709.
  • 2014
  • Article

Paying It Forward: Generalized Reciprocity and the Limits of Generosity

By: Kurt Gray, Adrian F. Ward and Michael I. Norton
When people are the victims of greed or recipients of generosity, their first impulse is often to pay back that behavior in kind. What happens when people cannot reciprocate, but instead have the chance to be cruel or kind to someone entirely different—to pay it... View Details
Keywords: Moral Sensibility; Behavior; Situation or Environment; Attitudes
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Gray, Kurt, Adrian F. Ward, and Michael I. Norton. "Paying It Forward: Generalized Reciprocity and the Limits of Generosity." Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 143, no. 1 (February 2014): 247–254.
  • March 2010 (Revised October 2011)
  • Case

Highland District County Hospital: Gastroenterology Care in Sweden

By: Michael E. Porter, Jennifer F Baron and Martin Rejler
Sweden's Highland District County Hospital, similar to a community hospital in the US, undertook a major restructuring to integrate care delivery for medical conditions served by the Department of Medicine. Each subspecialty within the Department would form a single,... View Details
Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Sweden
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Porter, Michael E., Jennifer F Baron, and Martin Rejler. "Highland District County Hospital: Gastroenterology Care in Sweden." Harvard Business School Case 710-469, March 2010. (Revised October 2011.)
  • December 2014 (Revised October 2017)
  • Case

Dow: Breakthroughs to World Challenges

By: Michael E. Porter, Mark R. Kramer and Annelena Lobb
Dow had adopted the "Breakthroughs to World Challenges" (BWC) program as part of its ten-year 2015 Sustainability Goals. BWC was an internal award recognizing products that effectively addressed one of five world challenges: energy and climate change, sustainable water... View Details
Keywords: Value Creation; Strategy; Social Issues; Entrepreneurship
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Porter, Michael E., Mark R. Kramer, and Annelena Lobb. "Dow: Breakthroughs to World Challenges." Harvard Business School Case 715-403, December 2014. (Revised October 2017.)
  • Fall 2016
  • Article

The Integrity of Private Third-party Compliance Monitoring

By: Jodi L. Short and Michael W. Toffel
Government agencies are increasingly turning to private, third-party monitors to inspect and assess regulated entities’ compliance with law. The integrity of these regulatory regimes rests on the validity of the information third-party monitors provide to regulators.... View Details
Keywords: Regulation; Compliance; Compliance Policies; Conflict Of Interest; Independent Third Party; Inspection; Audit Quality; Auditor; Audit; Environment; Safety; Conflict of Interests; Working Conditions; Labor; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Governance Compliance; Accounting Audits
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Short, Jodi L., and Michael W. Toffel. "The Integrity of Private Third-party Compliance Monitoring." Administrative & Regulatory Law News 42, no. 1 (Fall 2016): 22–25.
  • 2015
  • Working Paper

The Integrity of Private Third-party Compliance Monitoring

By: Jodi L. Short and Michael W. Toffel
Government agencies are increasingly turning to private, third-party monitors to inspect and assess regulated entities’ compliance with law. The integrity of these regulatory regimes rests on the validity of the information third-party monitors provide to regulators.... View Details
Keywords: Regulation; Compliance; Compliance Policies; Conflict Of Interest; Independent Third Party; Inspection; Audit Quality; Auditor; Audit; Environment; Production; Supply Chain; Quality; Government Administration; Working Conditions; Safety; Labor; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Governance Compliance; Manufacturing Industry; Public Administration Industry; Accounting Industry; Service Industry; United States
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Short, Jodi L., and Michael W. Toffel. "The Integrity of Private Third-party Compliance Monitoring." Harvard Kennedy School Regulatory Policy Program Working Paper, No. RPP-2015-20, November 2015. (Revised December 2015.)
  • 06 Dec 2011
  • First Look

First Look: Dec. 6

  PublicationsFlying Without a Net: Turn Fear of Change into Fuel for Success Author:Thomas J. DeLong Publication:Harvard Business Review Press, 2011 Abstract Confronted by omnipresent threats of job loss and change, even the brightest... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • April 2020
  • Teaching Note

Indigo Agriculture: Harnessing Nature

By: Michael W. Toffel and James Barnett
Teaching Note for HBS No. 620-024. Indigo Agriculture used a digital-enabled research and development (R&D) process to launch its initial product, microbial coatings for agricultural seeds, which increase crop yields while reducing the need for fertilizers. In doing... View Details
Keywords: Operations; Supply Chain; Social Enterprise; Product Development; Distribution Channels; Business Strategy; Digital Platforms; Science-Based Business; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Green Technology Industry; United States; Massachusetts
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Toffel, Michael W., and James Barnett. "Indigo Agriculture: Harnessing Nature." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 620-075, April 2020.
  • March 2018 (Revised January 2019)
  • Case

Gilead Mexico

By: Michael Chu and V. Kasturi Rangan
With a breakthrough cure for Hepatitis C listing in the U.S. at $1,000/pill, Gilead must now solve the issue of making it available to patients across the world, much as it did for its blockbuster HIV/AIDS antiretrovirals. For Erik Musalem, the new general manager of... View Details
Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Price; Strategy; Management; Pharmaceutical Industry; Mexico
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Chu, Michael, and V. Kasturi Rangan. "Gilead Mexico." Harvard Business School Case 318-111, March 2018. (Revised January 2019.)
  • March 2025
  • Case

The Changing Climate on Wall Street

By: Clayton S. Rose, Maxim Pike Harrell and Michael Norris
Increasing and conflicting regulatory requirements and political pressures regarding climate change tested the leaders of U.S. financial institutions, as they struggled to determine how best to comply while managing their business and its risks.
In October 2024,... View Details
Keywords: Competency and Skills; Decision Making; Cost vs Benefits; Ethics; Corporate Accountability; Leadership; Management; Risk Management; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Mission and Purpose; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Culture; Civil Society or Community; Social Issues; Adaptation; Risk and Uncertainty; Insurance; Climate Change; Change Management; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Insurance Industry; United States; Europe
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Rose, Clayton S., Maxim Pike Harrell, and Michael Norris. "The Changing Climate on Wall Street." Harvard Business School Case 325-020, March 2025.
  • January 2021
  • Case

The FIRE Savings Calculator

By: Michael Parzen and Paul Hamilton
This case follows Carol Muñoz, a member of the Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) lifestyle movement. At the age of 45, Carol is considering retiring and living off the $1 million she has accumulated. Using Monte Carlo simulation, Carol forecasts the... View Details
Keywords: Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Strategy; Investment Portfolio; Investment Return; Personal Finance; Saving; Risk and Uncertainty; Diversification; Theory; Personal Development and Career; Financial Services Industry
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Parzen, Michael, and Paul Hamilton. "The FIRE Savings Calculator." Harvard Business School Case 621-087, January 2021.
  • December 2001
  • Background Note

A Note on Critical Moments in Negotiation

By: Michael A. Wheeler and Gillian Morris
This case provides an introduction to the wide field of literature that addresses the presence of critical moments--moments that fundamentally can change the negotiation. Critical moments have been examined by a range of theorists and scientists, from mathematicians to... View Details
Keywords: Negotiation Tactics; Decision Choices and Conditions; Change; Negotiation Process; Body of Literature
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Wheeler, Michael A., and Gillian Morris. "A Note on Critical Moments in Negotiation." Harvard Business School Background Note 902-163, December 2001.
  • July/August 2004
  • Article

Stakeholders and Environmental Management Practices: An Institutional Framework

By: Magali Delmas and Michael W. Toffel
Despite burgeoning research on companies' environmental strategies and environmental management practices, it remains unclear why some firms adopt environmental management practices beyond regulatory compliance. This paper leverages institutional theory by proposing... View Details
Keywords: Strategy; Management Practices and Processes; Environmental Management; Adoption; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Organizational Structure; Factories, Labs, and Plants; Competition; Framework; Governance Compliance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms
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Delmas, Magali, and Michael W. Toffel. "Stakeholders and Environmental Management Practices: An Institutional Framework." Business Strategy and the Environment 13, no. 4 (July/August 2004): 209–222.
  • March 31, 2022
  • Article

Two Approaches to Capping Health Care Prices

By: Michael E. Chernew, Maximilian J. Pany and Leemore S. Dafny
High health care prices for the privately-insured contribute to high premiums, which put downward pressure on wages, and induce employers to reduce benefit generosity and charge employees more for coverage. As the average annual premium for family coverage currently... View Details
Keywords: Price Caps; Health Care and Treatment; Price
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Chernew, Michael E., Maximilian J. Pany, and Leemore S. Dafny. "Two Approaches to Capping Health Care Prices." Health Affairs Forefront (March 31, 2022).
  • 29 Jan 2013
  • First Look

First Look: Jan. 29

reaping the benefits of FDI (which relate to when FDI will generate growth) and (2) the mechanisms by which FDI creates positive externalities (which relate to how FDI generates growth). Technology and Innovation Management... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • July 2000
  • Background Note

Industry Transformation

By: Michael E. Porter and Jan W. Rivkin
One of the steepest challenges a strategist faces is to navigate his or her company through a period of industry transformation--an era of rapid and wholesale changes in industry structure. This note considers how periods of transformation typically unfold. It then... View Details
Keywords: Technological Innovation; Management; Management Practices and Processes; Industry Growth; Industry Structures; Strategy; Competitive Strategy; Corporate Strategy; Consulting Industry; Service Industry
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Porter, Michael E., and Jan W. Rivkin. "Industry Transformation." Harvard Business School Background Note 701-008, July 2000.
  • Teaching Interest

Harvard Business Analytics Program

By: Michael L. Tushman

The Harvard Business Analytics Program is offered through a collaboration between Harvard Business School (HBS), the John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS), and the Faculty of Arts and Sciences (FAS).

Designed for... View Details

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