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Publications

Publications

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  • All HBS Web  (2,863)
    • News  (470)
    • Research  (2,200)
    • Events  (43)
    • Multimedia  (14)
  • Faculty Publications  (1,410)

Show Results For

  • All HBS Web  (2,863)
    • News  (470)
    • Research  (2,200)
    • Events  (43)
    • Multimedia  (14)
  • Faculty Publications  (1,410)
← Page 10 of 2,863 Results →
  • 22 Jun 2021
  • News

Never in My Wildest Dreams:' What the Guru Who Predicted Remote Work 20 Years Ago Thinks about It Now

  • 01 Jun 2023
  • News

3-Minute Briefing: Jeremy Grantham (MBA 1966)

Edited by Julia Hanna; photo by Webb Chappell When I was 16, I took my savings to the bank and bought some shares of a neighbor’s scaffolding company. Before coming to HBS, I sold them to my mother, who had also acquired some, and we felt pleased about saving the... View Details
Keywords: climate change; finance; sustainability; prediction; Finance
  • 02 Feb 2025
  • News

Why the 2024 US Election, and So Many Others, Were So Hard to Predict

  • Article

Valuing Time Over Money Predicts Happiness After a Major Life Transition: A Preregistered Longitudinal Study of Graduating Students

By: A.V. Whillans, Lucia Macchia and Elizabeth Dunn
How does prioritizing time or money shape major life decisions and subsequent well-being? In a preregistered longitudinal study of approximately 1000 graduating university students, respondents who valued time over money chose more intrinsically rewarding activities... View Details
Keywords: Time Use; Trade-offs; Career Decisions; Time Management; Money; Happiness; Values and Beliefs; Personal Development and Career
Citation
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Whillans, A.V., Lucia Macchia, and Elizabeth Dunn. "Valuing Time Over Money Predicts Happiness After a Major Life Transition: A Preregistered Longitudinal Study of Graduating Students." Science Advances 5, no. 9 (September 2019).
  • 1990
  • Thesis

Parameter Prediction and Visualization to Aid the Decision-Making Process in an Automated Fabrication Environment

By: Stefan Thomke
Citation
Related
Thomke, Stefan. "Parameter Prediction and Visualization to Aid the Decision-Making Process in an Automated Fabrication Environment." Thesis, 1990.
  • 2016
  • Working Paper

Paying for the Truth: The Efficacy of a Peer Prediction Mechanism in the Field

By: Natalia Rigol and Benjamin N. Roth
Citation
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Rigol, Natalia, and Benjamin N. Roth. "Paying for the Truth: The Efficacy of a Peer Prediction Mechanism in the Field." Working Paper, April 2016.
  • 2018
  • Working Paper

Moral Prospection: Cognitive Bias and the Failure to Predict Moral Backlash Toward an Organization

By: J. Lees
Citation
Related
Lees, J. "Moral Prospection: Cognitive Bias and the Failure to Predict Moral Backlash Toward an Organization." Working Paper, November 2018.
  • 2014
  • Working Paper

Amount and Diversity of Emotional Expression on Facebook Predicts Life Satisfaction around the World

By: A. Kogan, F. Zhang, R. Sun, E. Simon-Thomas, P. Piff, S. Fan, J. Gruber, J. Quoidbach, M. I. Norton, C. Gronin, P. Fleming, D. Keltner and A.W. Brooks
Citation
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Kogan, A., F. Zhang, R. Sun, E. Simon-Thomas, P. Piff, S. Fan, J. Gruber, J. Quoidbach, M. I. Norton, C. Gronin, P. Fleming, D. Keltner, and A.W. Brooks. "Amount and Diversity of Emotional Expression on Facebook Predicts Life Satisfaction around the World." Working Paper, 2014.
  • Article

Learning and Equilibrium as Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games

By: Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, R. Slonim and Greg Barron
Keywords: Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Outcome or Result
Citation
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Erev, Ido, Alvin E. Roth, R. Slonim, and Greg Barron. "Learning and Equilibrium as Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games." Special Issue on Behavioral Game Theory. Economic Theory 33, no. 1 (October 2007): 29–51.
  • September 1998
  • Article

Predicting How People Play Games: Reinforcement Learning in Experimental Games with Unique, Mixed Strategy Equilibria

By: Ido Erev and A. E. Roth
Keywords: Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Strategy
Citation
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Erev, Ido, and A. E. Roth. "Predicting How People Play Games: Reinforcement Learning in Experimental Games with Unique, Mixed Strategy Equilibria." American Economic Review 88, no. 4 (September 1998): 848–881.
  • 2006
  • Working Paper

Learning and Equilibrium As Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games

By: Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim and Greg Barron
Citation
Related
Erev, Ido, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim, and Greg Barron. "Learning and Equilibrium As Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-004, July 2006.
  • 2021
  • Working Paper

When Does Uncertainty Matter?: Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making

By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju
Citation
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McGrath, Sean, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "When Does Uncertainty Matter?: Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making." Working Paper, January 2021.
  • Article

Modeling dependencies between rating categories and their effects on prediction in a credit risk portfolio

Citation
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Czado, Claudia, and Carolin Elisabeth Pflueger. "Modeling dependencies between rating categories and their effects on prediction in a credit risk portfolio." Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry 24, no. 3 (May–June 2008).
  • 15 Jun 2004
  • Conference Presentation

What is the Best Measure of Adiposity for Predicting Testosterone? Results from the Massachusetts Male Aging Study

By: William B. Simpson, Frances J. Hayes, Andre B. Araujo and John B. McKinlay
Keywords: Measurement and Metrics; Health Testing and Trials; Age Characteristics; Gender Characteristics; Massachusetts
Citation
Related
Simpson, William B., Frances J. Hayes, Andre B. Araujo, and John B. McKinlay. "What is the Best Measure of Adiposity for Predicting Testosterone? Results from the Massachusetts Male Aging Study." Paper presented at the Enocrine Society Annual Meeting, New Orleans, LA, June 15, 2004.
  • 20 Feb 2023
  • News

Some Predicted an Imminent Death for Twitter. It’s Still Here. Can Elon Musk Keep It Alive?

  • September–October 2020
  • Article

Managing Churn to Maximize Profits

By: Aurelie Lemmens and Sunil Gupta
Customer defection threatens many industries, prompting companies to deploy targeted, proactive customer retention programs and offers. A conventional approach has been to target customers either based on their predicted churn probability or their responsiveness to a... View Details
Keywords: Churn Management; Defection Prediction; Loss Function; Stochastic Gradient Boosting; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior; Profit
Citation
SSRN
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Lemmens, Aurelie, and Sunil Gupta. "Managing Churn to Maximize Profits." Marketing Science 39, no. 5 (September–October 2020): 956–973.
  • 2019
  • Working Paper

Managing Churn to Maximize Profits

By: Aurelie Lemmens and Sunil Gupta
Customer defection threatens many industries, prompting companies to deploy targeted, proactive customer retention programs and offers. A conventional approach has been to target customers either based on their predicted churn probability, or their responsiveness to a... View Details
Keywords: Churn Management; Defection Prediction; Loss Function; Stochastic Gradient Boosting; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior; Profit
Citation
SSRN
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Lemmens, Aurelie, and Sunil Gupta. "Managing Churn to Maximize Profits." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-020, September 2013. (Revised December 2019. Forthcoming at Marketing Science.)
  • July 2019
  • Article

I Know Why You Voted for Trump: (Over)inferring Motives Based on Choice

By: Kate Barasz, Tami Kim and Ioannis Evangelidis
People often speculate about why others make the choices they do. This paper investigates how such inferences are formed as a function of what is chosen. Specifically, when observers encounter someone else's choice (e.g., of political candidate), they use the chosen... View Details
Keywords: Self-other Difference; Social Perception; Inference-making; Preferences; Consumer Behavior; Prediction; Prediction Error; Decision Choices and Conditions; Perception; Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction
Citation
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Related
Barasz, Kate, Tami Kim, and Ioannis Evangelidis. "I Know Why You Voted for Trump: (Over)inferring Motives Based on Choice." Special Issue on The Cognitive Science of Political Thought. Cognition 188 (July 2019): 85–97.
  • 23 Sep 2013
  • Working Paper Summaries

Applying Random Coefficient Models to Strategy Research: Testing for Firm Heterogeneity, Predicting Firm-Specific Coefficients, and Estimating Strategy Trade-Offs

Keywords: by Juan Alcácer, Wilbur Chung, Ashton Hawk & Gonçalo Pacheco-de-Almeida
  • 03 Sep 2013
  • News

History Isn't on Side of Microsoft-Nokia Tie Up; Big Mergers Often Don't Produce the Desired Gains Advocates Predict

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