Risk and Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2004
Working Paper

Contract Rights and Risk Aversion: Foreign Banks and the Mexican Economy, 1997-2004

By: Stephen Haber and Aldo Musacchio

In 1997 Mexico allowed foreign banks unrestricted entry to the market. What impact did foreign mergers and acquisitions have on Mexico's banks? We find that all banks in Mexico have become increasingly risk averse, and that foreign banks are even more so. Foreign banks... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Contracts; Market Entry and Exit; Globalization; Microeconomics; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry; Mexico

Fourth Quarter 2007
Article

Contingent Claims Approach to Measuring and Managing Sovereign Credit Risk

By: Dale . F. Gray, Robert C. Merton and Zvi Bodie

This paper proposes a new approach to measure, analyze, and manage sovereign risk based on the theory and practice of modern contingent claims analysis (CCA). The paper provides a new framework for adapting the CCA model to the sovereign balance sheet in a way that can... View Details

Keywords: Credit; Investment; Sovereign Finance; Risk Management; Emerging Markets; Market Transactions; Mathematical Methods; Valuation

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2010
Chapter

Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability: A New Framework

By: Dale F. Gray, Robert C. Merton and Zvi Bodie

This paper proposes a new approach to improve the way central banks can analyze and manage the financial risks of a national economy. It is based on the modern theory and practice of contingent claims analysis (CCA), which is successfully used today at the level of... View Details

Keywords: Financial Statements; Economy; Financial Condition; Central Banking; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Management Practices and Processes; Risk Management; Measurement and Metrics; System Shocks

2024
Working Paper

Finance Without Exotic Risk

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta and Andrei Shleifer

We address the joint hypothesis problem in cross-sectional asset pricing by using measured analyst expectations of earnings growth. We construct a firm-level measure of Expectations Based Returns (EBRs) that uses analyst forecast errors and revisions and shuts down any... View Details

Keywords: Investment Return; Financial Markets; Behavioral Finance; Risk and Uncertainty

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1995
Book

Risk Management

By: D. E. Bell and A. Schleifer Jr.

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7 Mar 2013
Keynote Speech

Positive Risk and the Innovation Commons

By: Carliss Y. Baldwin

Keywords: Innovation ＆ Entrepreneurship; Entrepreneurship; Innovation and Invention

fall 2002
Article

Distortion and Risk in Optimal Incentive Contracts

By: George P. Baker

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Motivation and Incentives; Contracts

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January 2005
Article

Agency Costs in a Supply Chain with Demand Uncertainty and Price Competition

By: V.G. Narayanan, Ananth Raman and J. Singh

Keywords: Cost; Supply Chain; Risk and Uncertainty; Price; Competition

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2004
Chapter

Genzyme's Gaucher Initiative: Global Risk and Responsibility

By: Christopher A. Bartlett and Andrew N. McLean

Keywords: Health Disorders; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Globalization; Risk and Uncertainty; Health Industry; Biotechnology Industry

April 2001 (Revised August 2001)
Case

Risk Management at Apache

After initiating a hedging strategy, Apache Corp. is interested in revisiting its decision to determine if hedging is value-adding. This case investigates how the company initially decided to hedge against commodity price risk and how it implemented its hedging... View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Investment; Corporate Finance

Research Summary

Contract Rights and Risk Aversion: Foreign Banks and the Mexican Economy, 1997-2004

In 1997 Mexicos banking laws were reformed, allowing foreign banks, for the first time since the nineteenth century, to purchase controlling interests in the countrys largest banks. Foreign banks controlled 16 percent of Mexican bank assets in March 1997. By June... View Details

20 Mar 2018
Working Paper Summaries

Countering Political Risk in Colonial India: German Multinationals and the Challenge of Internment (1914–1947)

Keywords: by Christina Lubinski, Valeria Giacomin, and Klara Schnitzer

June 2016
Article

Local Currency Sovereign Risk

By: Wenxin Du and Jesse Schreger

We introduce a new measure of emerging market sovereign credit risk: the local currency credit spread, defined as the spread of local currency bonds over the synthetic local currency risk-free rate constructed using cross-currency swaps. We find that local currency... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Sovereign Finance; Currency; Emerging Markets

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02 Apr 2020
Working Paper Summaries

Strategic Foresight as Dynamic Capability: A New Lens on Knightian Uncertainty

Keywords: by J. Peter Scoblic

September 2022
Article

Tone at the Bottom: Measuring Corporate Misconduct Risk from the Text of Employee Reviews

By: Dennis W. Campbell and Ruidi Shang

This paper examines whether information extracted via text-based statistical methods applied to employee reviews left on the website Glassdoor.com can be used to develop indicators of corporate misconduct risk. We argue that inside information on the incidence of... View Details

Keywords: Management Accounting; Management Control; Corporate Culture; Corporate Misconduct; Risk Measurement; Organizational Culture; Crime and Corruption; Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics

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2013
Case

Travelers Insurance: Focusing on Climate Change and Natural Catastrophe Risk

By: Andrew J. Hoffman

The dilemma Evan Blue faces stems from a report by sustainability advocacy group Ceres that calls on companies to take climate change into consideration in their risk models and develop response strategies. The fictional vice president of Traveler's Insurance is tasked... View Details

Keywords: Climate Change; Business Strategy; Risk and Uncertainty; Insurance Industry

May–June 2018
Article

Data Uncertainty in Markov Chains: Application to Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Medical Innovations

By: Joel Goh, Mohsen Bayati, Stefanos A. Zenios, Sundeep Singh and David Moore

Cost-effectiveness studies of medical innovations often suffer from data inadequacy. When Markov chains are used as a modeling framework for such studies, this data inadequacy can manifest itself as imprecision in the elements of the transition matrix. In this paper,... View Details

Keywords: Markov Chains; Cost Effectiveness; Medical Innovations; Colorectal Cancer; Health Care and Treatment; Cost vs Benefits; Innovation and Invention; Mathematical Methods; Health Industry

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September 1997
Background Note

Note on Political Risk Analysis

By: Debora L. Spar

Describes the emergence and subsequent decline of the political risk analysis industry. Discusses what political risk means for multinational firms and various ways in which firms have tried to analyze and grapple with these risks. View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Foreign Direct Investment; Government and Politics

1998
Book

Islamic Law and Finance: Religion, Risk and Return

By: Frank Vogel and Samuel Hayes

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2007
Book

Perspectives on Risk and Regulation: The FDA at 100

By: Arthur A. Daemmrich and Joanna Radin

Perspectives on Risk and Regulation: The FDA at 100 brings together the viewpoints of Food and Drug Administration officials and industry leaders on the future of regulating food, drugs, medical devices, and dietary supplements. In a period of rapid scientific... View Details

Keywords: Private Sector; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Policy; Health Care and Treatment; Business and Government Relations; Risk and Uncertainty; Cooperation

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