Risk and Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2007
Working Paper

New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability

By: Dale F. Gray, Robert C. Merton and Zvi Bodie

This paper proposes a new approach to improve the way central banks can analyze and manage the financial risks of a national economy. It is based on the modern theory and practice of contingent claims analysis (CCA), which is successfully used today at the level of... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics; Central Banking; Risk Management

20 Mar 2018
Working Paper Summaries

Countering Political Risk in Colonial India: German Multinationals and the Challenge of Internment (1914–1947)

Keywords: by Christina Lubinski, Valeria Giacomin, and Klara Schnitzer

April 2001 (Revised August 2001)
Case

Risk Management at Apache

After initiating a hedging strategy, Apache Corp. is interested in revisiting its decision to determine if hedging is value-adding. This case investigates how the company initially decided to hedge against commodity price risk and how it implemented its hedging... View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Investment; Corporate Finance

02 Apr 2020
Working Paper Summaries

Strategic Foresight as Dynamic Capability: A New Lens on Knightian Uncertainty

Keywords: by J. Peter Scoblic

June 2016
Article

Local Currency Sovereign Risk

By: Wenxin Du and Jesse Schreger

We introduce a new measure of emerging market sovereign credit risk: the local currency credit spread, defined as the spread of local currency bonds over the synthetic local currency risk-free rate constructed using cross-currency swaps. We find that local currency... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Sovereign Finance; Currency; Emerging Markets

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2008
Working Paper

New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability

By: Dale F. Gray, Robert C. Merton and Zvi Bodie

This paper proposes a new approach to improve the way central banks can analyze and manage the financial risks of a national economy. It is based on the modern theory and practice of contingent claims analysis (CCA), which is successfully used today at the level of... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics; Central Banking; Risk Management

2024
Working Paper

Finance Without Exotic Risk

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta and Andrei Shleifer

We address the joint hypothesis problem in cross-sectional asset pricing by using measured analyst expectations of earnings growth. We construct a firm-level measure of Expectations Based Returns (EBRs) that uses analyst forecast errors and revisions and shuts down any... View Details

Keywords: Investment Return; Financial Markets; Behavioral Finance; Risk and Uncertainty

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2007
Book

Perspectives on Risk and Regulation: The FDA at 100

By: Arthur A. Daemmrich and Joanna Radin

Perspectives on Risk and Regulation: The FDA at 100 brings together the viewpoints of Food and Drug Administration officials and industry leaders on the future of regulating food, drugs, medical devices, and dietary supplements. In a period of rapid scientific... View Details

Keywords: Private Sector; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Policy; Health Care and Treatment; Business and Government Relations; Risk and Uncertainty; Cooperation

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1998
Book

Islamic Law and Finance: Religion, Risk and Return

By: Frank Vogel and Samuel Hayes

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Fourth Quarter 2007
Article

Contingent Claims Approach to Measuring and Managing Sovereign Credit Risk

By: Dale . F. Gray, Robert C. Merton and Zvi Bodie

This paper proposes a new approach to measure, analyze, and manage sovereign risk based on the theory and practice of modern contingent claims analysis (CCA). The paper provides a new framework for adapting the CCA model to the sovereign balance sheet in a way that can... View Details

Keywords: Credit; Investment; Sovereign Finance; Risk Management; Emerging Markets; Market Transactions; Mathematical Methods; Valuation

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2004
Working Paper

Contract Rights and Risk Aversion: Foreign Banks and the Mexican Economy, 1997-2004

By: Stephen Haber and Aldo Musacchio

In 1997 Mexico allowed foreign banks unrestricted entry to the market. What impact did foreign mergers and acquisitions have on Mexico's banks? We find that all banks in Mexico have become increasingly risk averse, and that foreign banks are even more so. Foreign banks... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Contracts; Market Entry and Exit; Globalization; Microeconomics; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry; Mexico

fall 2002
Article

Distortion and Risk in Optimal Incentive Contracts

By: George P. Baker

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Motivation and Incentives; Contracts

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Research Summary

Contract Rights and Risk Aversion: Foreign Banks and the Mexican Economy, 1997-2004

In 1997 Mexicos banking laws were reformed, allowing foreign banks, for the first time since the nineteenth century, to purchase controlling interests in the countrys largest banks. Foreign banks controlled 16 percent of Mexican bank assets in March 1997. By June... View Details

1995
Book

Risk Management

By: D. E. Bell and A. Schleifer Jr.

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May 1985
Article

Financial Risk and the Burdens of Contracts

By: Dutch Leonard and Richard Zeckhauser

Keywords: Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Contracts

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January 2005
Article

Agency Costs in a Supply Chain with Demand Uncertainty and Price Competition

By: V.G. Narayanan, Ananth Raman and J. Singh

Keywords: Cost; Supply Chain; Risk and Uncertainty; Price; Competition

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Research Summary

Time-Varying Volatility Risk Premia

This paper provides evidence for the existence of time-varying volatility risk premia. In doing so, it examines the evolution of the implied volatility bias in the S&P 100 from 1986-2006. Additionally, the paper proves three new results regarding the limiting... View Details

2013
Case

Travelers Insurance: Focusing on Climate Change and Natural Catastrophe Risk

By: Andrew J. Hoffman

The dilemma Evan Blue faces stems from a report by sustainability advocacy group Ceres that calls on companies to take climate change into consideration in their risk models and develop response strategies. The fictional vice president of Traveler's Insurance is tasked... View Details

Keywords: Climate Change; Business Strategy; Risk and Uncertainty; Insurance Industry

2006
Dissertation

Enterprise Risk Management in Action

By: Anette Mikes

The new Basel regulatory initiatives and a burgeoning risk management literature signify the rise of enterprise risk management (ERM) in the financial services sector. However, very little is known of the roles that risk management plays in organizations and how it... View Details

Keywords: Banks and Banking; Risk Management; Practice; Governance Controls; Value; Strategy; Financial Services Industry

2004
Chapter

Genzyme's Gaucher Initiative: Global Risk and Responsibility

By: Christopher A. Bartlett and Andrew N. McLean

Keywords: Health Disorders; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Globalization; Risk and Uncertainty; Health Industry; Biotechnology Industry

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