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- All HBS Web (1,030)
- Faculty Publications (349)
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- Article
Learning Through Noticing: Theory and Evidence from a Field Experiment
By: Rema Hanna, Sendhil Mullainathan and Joshua Schwartzstein
We consider a model of technological learning under which people "learn through noticing": they choose which input dimensions to attend to and subsequently learn about from available data. Using this model, we show how people with a great deal of experience may... View Details
Hanna, Rema, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Joshua Schwartzstein. "Learning Through Noticing: Theory and Evidence from a Field Experiment." Quarterly Journal of Economics 129, no. 3 (August 2014): 1311–1353. (Online Appendix.)
- 2002
- Other Unpublished Work
Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein
We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity—such as lower bid–ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover—predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational... View Details
Keywords: Price; Financial Liquidity; Trade; Valuation; Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Stock Shares; Investment Return
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeremy Stein. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator." NBER Working Paper Series, 2002. (First draft in 2001.)
- January 2010
- Article
The Role of Experience in the Gambler's Fallacy
By: Greg Barron and Stephen Leider
Recent papers have demonstrated that the way people acquire information about a decision problem, by experience or by abstract description, can affect their behavior. We examined the role of experience over time in the emergence of the Gambler's Fallacy in binary... View Details
Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Acquisition; Outcome or Result; Game Theory; Prejudice and Bias
Barron, Greg, and Stephen Leider. "The Role of Experience in the Gambler's Fallacy." Special Issue on Decisions from Experience. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 23, no. 1 (January 2010).
- April 2021
- Case
Distinct Software
By: Das Narayandas, Arijit Sengupta and Jonathan Wray
Distinct Software (disguised name), a global enterprise software company, is at an important point in its growth trajectory where the luster of its mantra of “grow and win at any cost” has dimmed with increasing competition and margin pressures. To help navigate its... View Details
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Marketing; Sales; Performance Productivity; Technological Innovation; AI and Machine Learning
Narayandas, Das, Arijit Sengupta, and Jonathan Wray. "Distinct Software." Harvard Business School Case 521-101, April 2021.
- 11 Jan 2007
- Working Paper Summaries
A Perceptions Framework for Categorizing Inventory Policies in Single-stage Inventory Systems
Keywords: by Noel Watson
- 06 Oct 2008
- Research & Ideas
Updating a Classic: Writing a Great Business Plan
business plan and its relation to new venture formation. I tried to explain that a business plan can't be a tightly crafted prediction of the future but rather a depiction of how events might unfold and a road map for change. I emphasized... View Details
Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne
- 2023
- Article
On the Impact of Actionable Explanations on Social Segregation
By: Ruijiang Gao and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As predictive models seep into several real-world applications, it has become critical to ensure that individuals who are negatively impacted by the outcomes of these models are provided with a means for recourse. To this end, there has been a growing body of research... View Details
Gao, Ruijiang, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "On the Impact of Actionable Explanations on Social Segregation." Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) 40th (2023): 10727–10743.
- April 2015
- Article
Money Creation and the Shadow Banking System
By: Adi Sunderam
Many explanations for the rapid growth of the shadow banking system in the mid-2000s focus on money demand. This paper asks whether the short-term liabilities of the shadow banking system behave like money. We first present a simple model where households demand money... View Details
Sunderam, Adi. "Money Creation and the Shadow Banking System." Review of Financial Studies 28, no. 4 (April 2015): 939–977.
- January 2019
- Article
Making Moves Matter: Experimental Evidence on Incentivizing Bureaucrats Through Performance-Based Postings
By: Adnan Q. Khan, Asim Ijaz Khwaja and Benjamin A. Olken
Bureaucracies often post staff to better or worse locations, ostensibly to provide incentives. Yet we know little about whether this works, with heterogeneity in preferences over postings impacting effectiveness. We propose a performance-ranked serial dictatorship... View Details
Keywords: Serial Dictatorship Mechanism; Employment; Geographic Location; Motivation and Incentives; Performance
Khan, Adnan Q., Asim Ijaz Khwaja, and Benjamin A. Olken. "Making Moves Matter: Experimental Evidence on Incentivizing Bureaucrats Through Performance-Based Postings." American Economic Review 109, no. 1 (January 2019): 237–270.
- 2011
- Chapter
Regional Trade Integration and Multinational Firm Strategies
By: Pol Antras and C. Fritz Foley
This paper analyzes the effects of the formation of a regional trade agreement on the level and nature of multinational firm activity. We examine aggregate data that captures the response of U.S. multinational firms to the formation of the ASEAN free trade agreement.... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Trade; Foreign Direct Investment; Multinational Firms and Management; Globalized Markets and Industries; Analytics and Data Science; Agreements and Arrangements; United States
Antras, Pol, and C. Fritz Foley. "Regional Trade Integration and Multinational Firm Strategies." In Costs and Benefits of Regional Economic Integration in Asia, edited by Robert J. Barro and Jong-Wha Lee. Oxford University Press, 2011.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Complexity and Time
By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea
We provide experimental evidence that core intertemporal choice anomalies -- including extreme short-run impatience, structural estimates of present bias, hyperbolicity and transitivity violations -- are driven by complexity rather than time or risk preferences. First,... View Details
Enke, Benjamin, Thomas Graeber, and Ryan Oprea. "Complexity and Time." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31047, March 2023.
- Article
Evolution of Land Distribution in West Bengal 1967–2004: Role of Land Reform and Demographic Changes
By: Pranab Bardhan, Michael Luca, Dilip Mookherjee and Francisco Pino
This paper studies how land reform and population growth affect land inequality and landlessness, focusing particularly on indirect effects owing to their influence on household divisions and land market transactions. Theoretical predictions of a model of household... View Details
Keywords: Inequality; Land Reform; Household Division; Land Markets; Equality and Inequality; Residency; Property; Household; West Bengal
Bardhan, Pranab, Michael Luca, Dilip Mookherjee, and Francisco Pino. "Evolution of Land Distribution in West Bengal 1967–2004: Role of Land Reform and Demographic Changes." Journal of Development Economics 110 (September 2014): 171–190.
- 2014
- Other Unpublished Work
Evolution of Land Distribution in West Bengal 1967-2004: Role of Land Reform and Demographic Changes
By: Pranab Bardhan, Michael Luca, Dilip Mookherjee and Francisco Pino
This paper examines the indirect effect of land reform and demographic changes on land inequality operating through induced household divisions and land market transactions. We develop an intra-household model of joint production where divisions, out-migration or land... View Details
Keywords: Inequality; Land Reform; Household Division; Land Markets; Equality and Inequality; Property; Household; Change; West Bengal
Bardhan, Pranab, Michael Luca, Dilip Mookherjee, and Francisco Pino. "Evolution of Land Distribution in West Bengal 1967-2004: Role of Land Reform and Demographic Changes." (conditionally accepted, Journal of Development Economics.)
- March 2002 (Revised November 2003)
- Case
Satellite Radio
By: Thomas R. Eisenmann and Alastair Brown
In early 2002, XM and Sirius were fighting for control of the emerging U.S. market for satellite radio. Each company targeted consumers in automobiles, providing 100 channels of CD-quality audio for a monthly subscription fee of $10-$13. Wall Street analysts predicted... View Details
Keywords: Growth and Development Strategy; Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Problems and Challenges; Network Effects; Partners and Partnerships; Information Technology; Business Model; Investment Return; Auto Industry; Media and Broadcasting Industry; United States
Eisenmann, Thomas R., and Alastair Brown. "Satellite Radio." Harvard Business School Case 802-175, March 2002. (Revised November 2003.)
- 26 Mar 2007
- Research & Ideas
Learning from Failed Political Leadership
people's minds. This book takes a long look ahead—yes, the future can and must be envisaged, and it can be done well—and devises a strategy based on what is to come, not what is past. Business leaders must be able to predict the changing... View Details
Keywords: by Martha Lagace
- 2011
- Chapter
An Exploration of the Japanese Slowdown during the 1990s
By: Diego A. Comin
Why was the 1990s a lost decade for Japan? How is it possible that the Japanese economy stagnated for a decade if none of the shocks that arguably hit the economy seemed to have persisted for much more than three years or so? In this paper I show that the endogenous... View Details
Keywords: Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Performance Productivity; Mathematical Methods; Research and Development; Technology Adoption; Japan
Comin, Diego A. "An Exploration of the Japanese Slowdown during the 1990s." In Japan's Bubble, Deflation, and Long-term Stagnation, edited by Koichi Hamada, Anil Kashyap, and David Weinstein. MIT Press, 2011.
- October 2014 (Revised August 2018)
- Case
Caesars Entertainment
By: Janice H. Hammond and Aldo Sesia
This case describes the introduction of a regression analysis model for forecasting guest arrivals to Caesars Palace hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada. The company will use the forecast to staff the front desk in the hotel. The staff is unionized and the company has little... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting; Staffing; Gaming; Gaming Industry; Hotel Industry; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Human Resources; Selection and Staffing; Entertainment; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Operations; Service Delivery; Service Operations; Accommodations Industry; Travel Industry; Tourism Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Las Vegas
Hammond, Janice H., and Aldo Sesia. "Caesars Entertainment." Harvard Business School Case 615-031, October 2014. (Revised August 2018.)
- June 2004
- Article
Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein
We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity-such as lower bid-ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover-predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational... View Details
Keywords: Markets; Financial Liquidity; Price; Trade; Sales; Equity; Information; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Accounting Industry
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeremy Stein. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator." Journal of Financial Markets 7, no. 3 (June 2004): 271–299.
- October 2007
- Journal Article
Psychosocial Development and Leader Performance of Military Officer Cadets
By: Scott Snook and Paul T. Bartone
Efforts to educate and develop future military officers aim to produce highly competent, ethical and effective leaders to serve the nation. But while there is general agreement about desired outcomes, the underlying developmental processes associated with these... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Leadership Development; Performance Evaluation; Personal Development and Career; Social Psychology
Snook, Scott, and Paul T. Bartone. "Psychosocial Development and Leader Performance of Military Officer Cadets." Leadership Quarterly 18, no. 5 (October 2007): 490–504.
- Article
Crowdsourcing City Government: Using Tournaments to Improve Inspection Accuracy
By: Edward Glaeser, Andrew Hillis, Scott Duke Kominers and Michael Luca
The proliferation of big data makes it possible to better target city services like hygiene inspections, but city governments rarely have the in-house talent needed for developing prediction algorithms. Cities could hire consultants, but a cheaper alternative is to... View Details
Keywords: User-generated Content; Operations; Tournaments; Policy-making; Machine Learning; Online Platforms; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods; City; Infrastructure; Business Processes; Government and Politics
Glaeser, Edward, Andrew Hillis, Scott Duke Kominers, and Michael Luca. "Crowdsourcing City Government: Using Tournaments to Improve Inspection Accuracy." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 106, no. 5 (May 2016): 114–118.