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  • 2010
  • Working Paper

Substitution Patterns of the Random Coefficients Logit

By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Andrew Ainslie
Previous research suggests that the random coefficients logit is a highly flexible model that overcomes the problems of the homogeneous logit by allowing for differences in tastes across individuals. The purpose of this paper is to show that this is not true. We prove... View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Mathematical Methods; Behavior; Prejudice and Bias
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  • July 1999
  • Article

Analysts' Forecast Accuracy: Do Ability and Portfolio Complexity Matter

By: Michael B. Clement
Prior studies have identified systematic and time persistent differences in analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy, but have not explained why the differences exist. Using the I/B/E/S Detail History database, this study finds that forecast accuracy is positively... View Details
Keywords: Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; Experience and Expertise
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  • November 2024
  • Supplement

AlphaGo (C): Birth of a New Intelligence

By: Shikhar Ghosh and Shweta Bagai
This case, the final of a three-part series, explores DeepMind's pivotal transition from mastering games to solving real-world scientific challenges. In December 2020, DeepMind's AI system AlphaFold 2 achieved a breakthrough by solving protein folding—a 50-year-old... View Details
Keywords: Autonomy; Deep Learning; Drug Discovery; Healthcare Innovation; Neural Networks; Scientific Research; Technology Startup; AI and Machine Learning; Technological Innovation; Research and Development; Business Model; Business Strategy; Open Source Distribution; Technology Industry; United States
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  • June 2014
  • Article

Charitable Giving When Altruism and Similarity Are Linked

By: Julio J. Rotemberg
This paper presents a model in which anonymous charitable donations are rationalized by two human tendencies drawn from the psychology literature. The first is people's disproportionate disposition to help those they agree with, while the second is the dependence of... View Details
Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Behavior; Attitudes; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving
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  • Article

Competition for Scarce Resources

By: Peter Eso, Volker Nocke and Lucy White
We model a downstream industry where firms compete to buy capacity in an upstream market that allocates capacity efficiently. Although downstream firms have symmetric production technologies, we show that industry structure is symmetric only if capacity is sufficiently... View Details
Keywords: Competitive Strategy; Natural Environment; Technology; Production; Business Cycles; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Demand and Consumers; Industry Structures; Performance Capacity
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  • Research Summary

Self-environment relationship and its effect on decisions under risk and uncertainty

My research seek to better understand the main cognitive and social abilities that guide our judgments, and the ways they interact with aspects of the situation to shape humans' decisions. It is currently comprised of three related... View Details

  • 2012
  • Working Paper

The Dark Side of the Vote: Biased Voters, Social Information, and Information Aggregation Through Majority Voting

We experimentally investigate information aggregation through majority voting when some voters are biased. In such situations, majority voting can have a "dark side", i.e. result in groups making choices inferior to those made by individuals acting alone. We develop a... View Details
Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Voting
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  • Research Summary

Selective Attention and Learning

By: Joshua R. Schwartzstein

What do we notice, and how does this affect what we learn? Standard economic models of learning ignore memory by assuming that we remember everything. But there is growing recognition that memory is imperfect. Further, memory imperfections do not stem from limited... View Details

  • 2011
  • Working Paper

Charitable Giving When Altruism and Similarity Are Linked

By: Julio J. Rotemberg
This paper presents a model in which anonymous charitable donations are rationalized by two human tendencies drawn from the psychology literature. The first is people's disproportionate disposition to help those they agree with while the second is the dependence of... View Details
Keywords: Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Mathematical Methods; Attitudes; Interests; Perception; Wealth and Poverty
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  • April 2015
  • Case

Carolinas HealthCare System: Consumer Analytics

By: John A. Quelch and Margaret L. Rodriguez
In 2014, Dr. Michael Dulin, chief clinical officer for analytics and outcomes research and head of the Dickson Advanced Analytics (DA2) group at Carolinas HealthCare System (CHS), successfully unified all analytics talent and resources into one group over a three year... View Details
Keywords: Consumer Segmentation; Big Data; Management Information Systems; Hospital Management; Health Care and Treatment; Marketing; Segmentation; Analytics and Data Science; Information Management; Information Technology; Health; Health Industry; United States
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  • 08 May 2020
  • News

Which Covid-19 Data Can You Trust?

  • 11 Jan 2007
  • Working Paper Summaries

A Perceptions Framework for Categorizing Inventory Policies in Single-stage Inventory Systems

Keywords: by Noel Watson

    Disagreement after News: Gradual Information Diffusion or Differences of Opinion?

    This paper explores the long-standing empirical fact of increased trading volume around news releases through the lens of canonical models of gradual information diffusion and differences of opinion. I use a unique dataset of clicks on news by key finance... View Details

      Paul Hamilton

      Paul studies the economic complements needed for firms to realize productivity gains from machine learning and artificial intelligence. These complements include data, human capital & skills, organizational processes, and business models. 
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      • 2009
      • Working Paper

      Altruistic Dynamic Pricing with Customer Regret

      By: Julio J. Rotemberg
      A model is considered where firms internalize the regret costs that consumers experience when they see an unexpected price change. Regret costs are assumed to be increasing in the size of price changes and this can explain why the size of price increases is less... View Details
      Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Price; Marketing; Consumer Behavior; Mathematical Methods
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      • January 2010
      • Article

      The Role of Experience in the Gambler's Fallacy

      By: Greg Barron and Stephen Leider
      Recent papers have demonstrated that the way people acquire information about a decision problem, by experience or by abstract description, can affect their behavior. We examined the role of experience over time in the emergence of the Gambler's Fallacy in binary... View Details
      Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Acquisition; Outcome or Result; Game Theory; Prejudice and Bias
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      • 2002
      • Other Unpublished Work

      Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein
      We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity—such as lower bid–ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover—predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational... View Details
      Keywords: Price; Financial Liquidity; Trade; Valuation; Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Stock Shares; Investment Return
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      • 27 Jan 2010
      • Working Paper Summaries

      Labor Regulations and European Private Equity

      Keywords: by Ant Bozkaya & William R. Kerr
      • 2023
      • Article

      On the Impact of Actionable Explanations on Social Segregation

      By: Ruijiang Gao and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      As predictive models seep into several real-world applications, it has become critical to ensure that individuals who are negatively impacted by the outcomes of these models are provided with a means for recourse. To this end, there has been a growing body of research... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Outcome or Result
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        "Learning Through Noticing: Theory and Evidence from a Field Experiment"

        We consider a model of technological learning under which people "learn through noticing": they choose which input dimensions to attend to and subsequently learn about from available data. Using this model, we show how people with a great deal of experience may... View Details