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    • All HBS Web  (1,026)
      • Faculty Publications  (218)

      Predictive ModelsRemove Predictive Models →

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      • February 2007 (Revised January 2008)
      • Supplement

      Multifactor Models (CW)

      By: Malcolm P. Baker
      Keywords: Asset Pricing; Cost of Capital; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Funds; Investment Return; Mathematical Methods; Performance Evaluation
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      Baker, Malcolm P. "Multifactor Models (CW)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 207-710, February 2007. (Revised January 2008.)
      • Article

      The Effect of Dividends on Consumption

      By: Malcolm Baker, Stefan Nagel and Jeffrey Wurgler
      Classical models predict that the division of stock returns into dividends and capital appreciation does not affect investor consumption patterns, while mental accounting and other economic frictions predict that investors have a higher propensity to consume from... View Details
      Keywords: Investment; Investment Return; Economics; Stocks; Capital; Business Earnings; Investment Portfolio; Investment Funds; Cost; Saving
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      Baker, Malcolm, Stefan Nagel, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Effect of Dividends on Consumption." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 1 (2007): 277–291.
      • 2006
      • Working Paper

      The Effect of Dividends on Consumption

      By: Malcolm Baker, Stefan Nagel and Jeffrey Wurgler
      Classical models predict that the division of stock returns into dividends and capital appreciation does not affect investor consumption patterns, while mental accounting and other economic frictions predict that investors have a higher propensity to consume from stock... View Details
      Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Personal Finance; Investment Return; Household
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      Baker, Malcolm, Stefan Nagel, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Effect of Dividends on Consumption." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 12288, June 2006. (First Draft in 2005.)
      • May 2006
      • Article

      Detection Defection: Measuring and Understanding the Predictive Accuracy of Customer Churn Models

      By: Scott Neslin, Sunil Gupta, Wagner Kamakura, Junxiang Lu and Charlotte Mason
      Keywords: Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction; Customers
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      Neslin, Scott, Sunil Gupta, Wagner Kamakura, Junxiang Lu, and Charlotte Mason. "Detection Defection: Measuring and Understanding the Predictive Accuracy of Customer Churn Models." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 43, no. 2 (May 2006): 204–211.
      • 2006
      • Working Paper

      On the Origin of Shared Beliefs (and Corporate Culture)

      By: Eric J. Van den Steen

      This paper shows why members of an organization often share similar beliefs. I argue that there are two mechanisms. First, when performance depends on making correct decisions, people prefer to work with others who share their beliefs and assumptions, since such... View Details

      Keywords: Organizational Culture; Employees; Values and Beliefs; Mathematical Methods
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      Van den Steen, Eric J. "On the Origin of Shared Beliefs (and Corporate Culture)." Sloan School of Management Working Paper, No. 4553-05, January 2006. (Available at SSRN.)
      • December 2005
      • Article

      Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior

      By: Greg Allenby, Geraldine Fennel, Joel Huber, Thomas Eagle, Tim Gilbride, Jaehwan Kim, Peter Lenk, Rich Johnson, Bryan Orme, Elie Ofek, Thomas Otter and Joan Walker
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Markets; Behavior
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      Allenby, Greg, Geraldine Fennel, Joel Huber, Thomas Eagle, Tim Gilbride, Jaehwan Kim, Peter Lenk, Rich Johnson, Bryan Orme, Elie Ofek, Thomas Otter, and Joan Walker. "Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior." Marketing Letters 16, nos. 3/4 (December 2005).
      • May 2005
      • Exercise

      Forecasting the Adoption of E-books

      By: Elie Ofek
      Gives students an opportunity to understand the challenges inherent in forecasting the diffusions of innovations. Provides data for forecasting the adoption of electronic books. Students are encouraged to use the Bass Model framework, while being cognizant of its... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Framework; Books; Analytics and Data Science; Product Launch; Internet and the Web; Technology Adoption
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      Ofek, Elie. "Forecasting the Adoption of E-books." Harvard Business School Exercise 505-063, May 2005.
      • February 2005 (Revised November 2016)
      • Background Note

      Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product

      By: Elie Ofek
      Provides tools and methodologies that allow forecasting demand for innovative new products. Highlights the Bass model—the theory behind it and ways to determine its parameters. Provides a detailed example of how to use the Bass model to forecast demand for satellite... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods; Competition
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      Ofek, Elie. "Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product." Harvard Business School Background Note 505-062, February 2005. (Revised November 2016.)
      • September 2004
      • Article

      Trust in Agency

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell
      Existing models of the principal-agent relationship assume the agent works only under extrinsic incentives. However, many observed agency contracts take the form of a fixed payment. For such contracts to succeed, the principal must trust the agent to work in the... View Details
      Keywords: Trust; Agency Theory; Relationships; Behavior; Motivation and Incentives; Contracts; Business Model; Emotions; Forecasting and Prediction; Ethics; Standards; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon. "Trust in Agency." Journal of Economics & Management Strategy 13, no. 3 (September 2004): 375–404.
      • June 2004
      • Article

      Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein
      We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity-such as lower bid-ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover-predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational... View Details
      Keywords: Markets; Financial Liquidity; Price; Trade; Sales; Equity; Information; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Accounting Industry
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeremy Stein. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator." Journal of Financial Markets 7, no. 3 (June 2004): 271–299.
      • August 2003
      • Article

      When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms

      By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that... View Details
      Keywords: Stocks; Price; Investment; Equity; Forecasting and Prediction; Rank and Position; Markets
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      Baker, Malcolm, Jeremy Stein, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms." Quarterly Journal of Economics 118, no. 3 (August 2003): 969–1006.
      • October 2002 (Revised January 2013)
      • Case

      Krispy Kreme Doughnuts

      By: Paul M. Healy
      Krispy Kreme is a rapidly growing firm with a business model that has excited Wall Street. View Details
      Keywords: Business Growth and Maturation; Business Model; Financial Statements; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Reporting; Performance Evaluation; Business Strategy; Food and Beverage Industry; New York (city, NY)
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      Healy, Paul M. "Krispy Kreme Doughnuts." Harvard Business School Case 103-018, October 2002. (Revised January 2013.)
      • July– September 2002
      • Article

      Predictive Value and the Usefulness of Game Theoretic Models

      By: Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim and Greg Barron
      Keywords: Value; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Theory
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      Erev, Ido, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim, and Greg Barron. "Predictive Value and the Usefulness of Game Theoretic Models." International Journal of Forecasting 18, no. 3 (July– September 2002): 359–368.
      • March 2002 (Revised November 2003)
      • Case

      Satellite Radio

      By: Thomas R. Eisenmann and Alastair Brown
      In early 2002, XM and Sirius were fighting for control of the emerging U.S. market for satellite radio. Each company targeted consumers in automobiles, providing 100 channels of CD-quality audio for a monthly subscription fee of $10-$13. Wall Street analysts predicted... View Details
      Keywords: Growth and Development Strategy; Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Problems and Challenges; Network Effects; Partners and Partnerships; Information Technology; Business Model; Investment Return; Auto Industry; Media and Broadcasting Industry; United States
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      Eisenmann, Thomas R., and Alastair Brown. "Satellite Radio." Harvard Business School Case 802-175, March 2002. (Revised November 2003.)
      • 2002
      • Other Unpublished Work

      Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein
      We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity—such as lower bid–ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover—predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational... View Details
      Keywords: Price; Financial Liquidity; Trade; Valuation; Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Stock Shares; Investment Return
      Citation
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeremy Stein. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator." NBER Working Paper Series, 2002. (First draft in 2001.)
      • 2001
      • Working Paper

      When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity Dependent Firms

      By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that... View Details
      Keywords: Investment; Equity; Stocks; Price; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction
      Citation
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      Baker, Malcolm, Jeremy Stein, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity Dependent Firms." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 8750, December 2001. (First draft in 2001.)
      • January 2001
      • Case

      Valuing Project Achieve

      By: Mihir A. Desai and Kathleen Luchs
      Project Achieve is a start-up providing information management solutions for schools. Its founders see a need for software both to manage the volumes of information necessary to administer a school and to connect parents, teachers, and students in a more effective way.... View Details
      Keywords: Business Startups; Valuation; Venture Capital; Cost of Capital; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Desai, Mihir A., and Kathleen Luchs. "Valuing Project Achieve." Harvard Business School Case 201-080, January 2001.
      • November 1999 (Revised July 2003)
      • Case

      Pre-Paid Legal Services, Inc.

      By: Paul M. Healy and Jacob Cohen
      Pre-Paid Legal Services' business model reveals two key issues--managing the sales force and sales growth and managing claims. Students analyze the economics of the business and consider how to measure firm performance, how to evaluate and reward the sales force, and... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Salesforce Management; Marketing Strategy; Accrual Accounting; Business Cycles; Forecasting and Prediction; Insurance; Business Growth and Maturation; Insurance Industry
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      Healy, Paul M., and Jacob Cohen. "Pre-Paid Legal Services, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 100-037, November 1999. (Revised July 2003.)
      • 1998
      • Article

      Looking Inside the Fishbowl of Creativity: Verbal and Behavioral Predictors of Creative Performance

      By: J. Ruscio, D. M. Whitney and T. M. Amabile
      This study set out to identify specific task behaviors that predict observable product creativity in three domains and to identify which of those behaviors mediate the well-established link between intrinsic motivation and creativity. One-hundred fifty-one... View Details
      Keywords: Creativity; Cognition and Thinking; Behavior
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      Ruscio, J., D. M. Whitney, and T. M. Amabile. "Looking Inside the Fishbowl of Creativity: Verbal and Behavioral Predictors of Creative Performance." Creativity Research Journal 11, no. 3 (1998): 243–263.
      • 1996
      • Article

      Evidence to Support the Componential Model of Creativity: Secondary Analyses of Three Studies

      By: R. Conti, H. Coon and T. M. Amabile
      Amabile's (1983a, 1983b, 1988) componential model of creativity predicts that three major components contribute to creativity: skills specific to the task domain, general (cross-domain) creativity-relevant skills, and task motivation. If all three components actually... View Details
      Keywords: Theory; Creativity; Research
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      Conti, R., H. Coon, and T. M. Amabile. "Evidence to Support the Componential Model of Creativity: Secondary Analyses of Three Studies." Creativity Research Journal 9, no. 4 (1996): 385–389.
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