Publications

2017
Working Paper

Biased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments

By: Daniel J. Benjamin, Don A. Moore and Matthew Rabin

This paper describes results of a pair of incentivized experiments on biases in judgments about random samples. Consistent with the Law of Small Numbers (LSN), participants exaggerated the likelihood that short sequences and random subsets of coin flips would be... View Details

Keywords: Probability; Economic Theory; Analysis; Incentives

2009
Case

What People Want (and How to Predict It)

By: Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris

Historically, neither the creators nor the distributors of cultural products such as books or movies have used analytics -- data, statistics, predictive modeling -- to determine the likely success of their offerings. Instead, companies relied on the brilliance of... View Details

Keywords: Product Development; Creativity; Customer Satisfaction; Forecasting and Prediction; Markets; Business Model; Publishing Industry; Motion Pictures and Video Industry

Purchase

February 2023
Article

Increasing the Demand for Workers with a Criminal Record

By: Zoë Cullen, Will Dobbie and Mitchell Hoffman

State and local policies increasingly restrict employers’ access to criminal records, but without addressing the underlying reasons that employers may conduct criminal background checks. Employers may thus still want to ask about a job applicant’s criminal record... View Details

Keywords: Criminal Record; Hiring; Background Checks; Recruitment; Insurance

March 2018
Article

How Context Affects Choice

By: Raphael Thomadsen, Robert P. Rooderkerk, On Amir, Neeraj Arora, Bryan Bollinger, Karsten Hansen, Leslie John, Wendy Liu, Aner Sela, Vishal Singh, K. Sudhir and Wendy Wood

Due to its origins in the literature on judgment and decision-making, context effects in marketing are construed exclusively in terms of how choices deviate from utility maximization principles as a function of how choices are presented (e.g., framing, sequence,... View Details

Keywords: Decision Making; Decision Choices and Conditions; Situation or Environment; Consumer Behavior

April 14, 2017
Article

Companies Like United Need to Cultivate Good Judgment, and Free Their Employees to Use It

By: John A. Deighton

United Airlines has pledged to improve its training programs and empower its employees to put customers first in the wake of a video showing a passenger being dragged from a plane. Of all the U.S. air carriers, United should have known the power of social media and... View Details

Keywords: Crisis Management; Customer Focus and Relationships; Employees; Training; Air Transportation Industry

Register to Read

2017
Working Paper

A Welfarist Role for Nonwelfarist Rules: An Example with Envy

By: Matthew Weinzierl

I propose and formalize an argument for why economists working in the welfarist normative tradition should include nonwelfarist principles in how they judge economic policy. The key idea behind this argument is that the world is too complex, and our ability to model it... View Details

Keywords: Ethics; Policy; Economics

SSRN

July 2001 (Revised May 2002)
Case

Making a Doctor

Three doctors were interviewed to learn how they were trained to be a physicians. One was a family practice senior resident, one was a critical care pediatric chief resident, and one was an orthopedic staff surgeon 18 months out of residency. All three were interviewed... View Details

Keywords: Personal Development and Career; Health Care and Treatment; Business Processes; Health Industry

01 May 2012
First Look

First Look: May 1

Publications Behaviorial Ethics: Toward a Deeper Understanding of Moral Judgment and Dishonesty Authors: Max Bazerman and Francesca Gino Publication: Annual Review of Law and Social Science (forthcoming) Abstract Early research and... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

12 Feb 2019
First Look

New Research and Ideas, February 12, 2019

immigrants. Download working paper: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=54963 Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry By: Luo, Hong, Jeffrey T. Macher, and Michael Wahlen Abstract— This... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

17 Oct 2017
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, October 17, 2017

induced by the promise of temporary sharing, sharers of uninhibited selfies come across as having worse judgment relative to those who share relatively discreet selfies (studies 1, 2, & 4–7)—an attributional pattern that is... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

10 Jun 2014
First Look

First Look: June 10

Publications August 2013 pub Cannibalization and Option Value Effects of Secondary Markets: Evidence from the U.S. Concert Industry By: Bennett, Victor Manuel, Robert Seamans, and Feng Zhu Abstract—We examine how reducing search frictions in secondary markets affects... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

30 Apr 2021
Research & Ideas

Why Anger Makes a Wrongly Accused Person Look Guilty

University—found that anger can make a person come across as guilty even when they are not. Too often, when an employee is accused of wrongdoing, people evaluating the situation can make snap judgments based on biases and hunches. This... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding

15 Apr 2024
Book

Struggling With a Big Management Decision? Start by Asking What Really Matters

They express what I came to call our personal moral wisdom. This is our personal judgment about what really matters in a situation, what is responsible, and what is possible and practical. For well or ill, when we make a final decision in... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

5 Feb 2013
Conference Presentation

Financing Entrepreneurial Growth

By: Tom Alberg, Andrew A. Bogan, Harold Bradley, Robert D. Cooter, Monika Gruter Cheney, Oliver R. Goodenough, William R. Hambrecht, Frank Hatheway, Thomas F. Hellmann, Marianne Hudson, Jared Konczal, Josh Lerner, Robert E. Litan, Diane Mulcahy, Ramana Nanda, Frank Partnoy, Joe Ratterman, Nava Ravikant, Jay R. Ritter, Alicia Robb, David T. Robinson, Allison Schrager, Barry Silbert, E. R. Sirri, Daniel Stangler and Sharon Vosmek

Despite recent innovations in entrepreneurial finance, particularly at the early stage of business creation, many new and young companies continue to face hurdles to acquire capital.

The Kauffman Foundation addressed current challenges and opportunities in... View Details

Keywords: Finance; Entrepreneurial Finance; Venture Capital; Entrepreneurship; United States

SSRN

Research Summary

Overview

By: Julian J. Zlatev

First, Professor Zlatev studies how people make decisions that reinforce a sense that they are good or moral. He studies the psychology behind dual motive behaviors—actions that incorporate self-interested and prosocial motives—and the structure of moral identity. For... View Details

March 2020
Article

Is This My Group or Not? The Role of Ensemble Coding of Emotional Expressions in Group Categorization

By: Amit Goldenberg, Timothy D. Sweeny, Emmanuel Shpigel and James J. Gross

When exposed to others’ emotional responses, people often make rapid decisions as to whether these others are members of their group or not. These group categorization decisions have been shown to be extremely important to understanding group behavior. Yet, despite... View Details

Keywords: Categorization; Ensemble Coding; Summary Statistical Perception; Social Cognition; Emotions; Perception; Groups and Teams