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  • All HBS Web  (632)
    • News  (165)
    • Research  (399)
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Show Results For

  • All HBS Web  (632)
    • News  (165)
    • Research  (399)
    • Events  (2)
    • Multimedia  (6)
  • Faculty Publications  (245)
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  • Research Summary

A Temporal View of the Costs and Benefits of Self-Deception

Researchers have documented many cases in which individuals rationalize their regrettable actions. Four experiments examine situations in which participants go beyond merely explaining away their misconduct to actively deceiving themselves. We find that those who... View Details
  • Article

Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?

By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Robert L. Winkler
We consider two ways to aggregate expert opinions using simple averages: averaging probabilities and averaging quantiles. We examine analytical properties of these forecasts and compare their ability to harness the wisdom of the crowd. In terms of location, the two... View Details
Keywords: Probability Forecasts; Quantile Forecasts; Expert Combination; Linear Opinion Pooling; Forecasting and Prediction
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Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Robert L. Winkler. "Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?" Management Science 59, no. 7 (July 2013): 1594–1611.
  • November 2017 (Revised August 2018)
  • Case

Fair Value Accounting at Noble Group (A)

By: Siko Sikochi, Suraj Srinivasan and Quinn Pitcher
Noble Group was a large commodities trader based in Hong Kong and listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange. In 2012, Noble shifted its business strategy towards an asset-light model. Under this model, Noble did not own mines or farms to produce commodities but built... View Details
Keywords: Fair Value Accounting; Policy; Goods and Commodities; Contracts; Valuation
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Sikochi, Siko, Suraj Srinivasan, and Quinn Pitcher. "Fair Value Accounting at Noble Group (A)." Harvard Business School Case 118-034, November 2017. (Revised August 2018.)
  • 2010
  • Chapter

The Euro as a Reserve Currency for Global Investors

By: Luis M. Viceira and Ricardo Gimeno
This article explores the demand for the euro for risk management purposes and the evidence of stock market integration in the euro area. We define a reserve currency as one that investors demand either because it helps them hedge real interest risk and inflation risk,... View Details
Keywords: Volatility; Inflation and Deflation; Capital Markets; Currency; Stocks; Financial Markets; Financing and Loans; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Risk Management
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Viceira, Luis M., and Ricardo Gimeno. "The Euro as a Reserve Currency for Global Investors." Chap. 4 in Spain and the Euro. The First Ten Years, 149–178. Madrid, Spain: Banco de España, 2010.
  • 06 Mar 2018
  • First Look

First Look at Research and Ideas, March 6, 2018

temporary effect on aggregate inflation and no downward effect on other goods. Second, contrary to common beliefs, we find that controlled goods are consistently available for sale. Third, firms compensate for price controls by... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 25 Jan 2022
  • Research & Ideas

More Proof That Money Can Buy Happiness (or a Life with Less Stress)

particularly important now, as inflation eats into the ability of many Americans to afford basic necessities like food and gas, and COVID-19 continues to disrupt the job market. Buying less stress The inspiration for researching how money... View Details
Keywords: by Michael Blanding
  • June 2002 (Revised June 2014)
  • Case

The Netherlands: Is the Polder Model Sinking?

By: Huw Pill, Marie-Laure Y Goepfer, Mathijs Robbens and Ingrid Vogel
The Netherlands suffered economic crisis in the late 1970s and early 1980s, despite (or perhaps because of) its access to North Sea gas. In response to mounting inflation and unemployment, a tripartite agreement between employers, unions, and government was reached in... View Details
Keywords: Macroeconomics; Labor Unions; Netherlands
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Pill, Huw, Marie-Laure Y Goepfer, Mathijs Robbens, and Ingrid Vogel. "The Netherlands: Is the Polder Model Sinking?" Harvard Business School Case 702-051, June 2002. (Revised June 2014.)
  • January 2024
  • Article

Cost of Exempting Sole Orphan Drugs from Medicare Negotiation

By: Matthew Vogel, Olivia Zhao, William B. Feldman, Amitabh Chandra, Aaron S. Kesselheim and Benjamin N. Rome
Importance: The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) requires Medicare to negotiate prices for some high-spending drugs but exempts drugs approved solely for the treatment of a single rare disease.
Objective: To estimate Medicare spending and global... View Details
Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Insurance; Price; Health Industry
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Vogel, Matthew, Olivia Zhao, William B. Feldman, Amitabh Chandra, Aaron S. Kesselheim, and Benjamin N. Rome. "Cost of Exempting Sole Orphan Drugs from Medicare Negotiation." JAMA Internal Medicine 184, no. 1 (January 2024): 63–69.
  • 11 Sep 2018
  • First Look

New Research and Ideas, September 11, 2018

and affect aggregate inflation dynamics. In particular, I show that in the past ten years online competition has raised both the frequency of price changes and the degree of uniform pricing across locations. These changes make retail... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
  • Article

How to Make the Other Side Play Fair: The Final-Offer Arbitration Challenge Gives Negotiators a Valuable New Tool

By: Max H. Bazerman and Daniel Kahneman
In legal disputes, contested insurance claims, and similarly adversarial negotiations, one party is likely to open with an inflated claim or a lowball offer. And if the other side’s position is unreasonable, it may make little sense to be reasonable yourself. But if... View Details
Keywords: Negotiation Tactics; Negotiation Offer
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Bazerman, Max H., and Daniel Kahneman. "How to Make the Other Side Play Fair: The Final-Offer Arbitration Challenge Gives Negotiators a Valuable New Tool." Harvard Business Review 94, no. 9 (September 2016): 76–81.
  • 2003
  • Book

Profits You Can Trust: Spotting and Surviving Accounting Landmines

By: H. David Sherman, S. David Young and Harris Collingwood
Profits You Can Trust gives managers, directors, lenders, audit partners and analysts a clear framework to demystify global financial reporting in a market fraught with danger. Filled with provocative and enlightening examples, it offers a fresh perspective and clear... View Details
Keywords: Accounting; Corporate Finance; Economics; Financial Reporting
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Sherman, H. David, S. David Young, and Harris Collingwood. Profits You Can Trust: Spotting and Surviving Accounting Landmines. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Financial Times Prentice Hall, 2003.
  • 02 Jan 2024
  • Research & Ideas

10 Trends to Watch in 2024

The lightning-fast ascent of generative AI isn’t the only sea change on the horizon for businesses in the new year. The global economy is in flux as war, climate change, trade issues, and infrastructure problems demand attention. Many companies continue to struggle to... View Details
Keywords: by Rachel Layne
  • May 2023
  • Article

Decarbonizing Health Care: Engaging Leaders in Change

By: Vivian S. Lee, Kathy Gerwig, Emily Hough, Kedar Mate, Robert Biggio and Robert S. Kaplan
Health care leaders are often surprised to learn that their operations contribute significantly to a warming climate. In addition to their roles as responders to and victims of extreme weather events, health care organizations have an obligation to reduce... View Details
Keywords: Health Care; Decarbonization; Carbon Emissions; Net-zero Emissions; Climate Change; Health Care and Treatment; Health Industry
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Lee, Vivian S., Kathy Gerwig, Emily Hough, Kedar Mate, Robert Biggio, and Robert S. Kaplan. "Decarbonizing Health Care: Engaging Leaders in Change." NEJM Catalyst Innovations in Care Delivery 4, no. 5 (May 2023).
  • 21 Nov 2017
  • First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, November 21, 2017

forthcoming Journal of Political Economy Internalizing Global Value Chains: A Firm-Level Analysis By: Alfaro, Laura, Pol Antràs, Davin Chor, and Paola Conconi Abstract—In recent decades, advances in information and communication technology and falling trade barriers... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 2018
  • Working Paper

Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors

By: Luis M. Viceira and Zixuan (Kevin) Wang
This paper conducts a theoretical and empirical investigation of global portfolio diversification for long-horizon investors in the presence of permanent cash flow shocks and transitory discount rate shocks to asset prices and returns. An increase in the cross-country... View Details
Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Risk and Uncertainty; Diversification; Capital Markets; Global Range
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Viceira, Luis M., and Zixuan (Kevin) Wang. "Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-085, March 2017. (Revised July 2018.)
  • 2018
  • Working Paper

Is Overconfidence a Motivated Bias? Experimental Evidence

By: Jennifer M. Logg, Uriel Haran and Don A. Moore
Are overconfident beliefs driven by the motivation to view oneself positively? We test the relationship between motivation and overconfidence using two distinct, but often conflated, measures: better-than-average (BTA) beliefs and overplacement. Our results suggest... View Details
Keywords: Self-perception; Overconfidence; Motivation; Better-Than-Average Effect; Specifically; Personal Characteristics; Perception; Motivation and Incentives; Cognition and Thinking
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Logg, Jennifer M., Uriel Haran, and Don A. Moore. "Is Overconfidence a Motivated Bias? Experimental Evidence." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 18-099, April 2018.
  • March 2023
  • Supplement

Allianz Türkiye (C): Managing the 2017 Hail Storm

By: John D. Macomber and Fares Khrais
Allianz Turkey is a property casualty insurance company operating in a region experiencing increasing losses from natural catastrophe events related to climate change, for example hail, wildfire, and flooding. There are also substantial other natural catastrophe... View Details
Keywords: Insurance And Reinsurance; Natural Disasters; Turkey; Insurance; Climate Change; Analytics and Data Science; Insurance Industry; Financial Services Industry; Turkey
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Macomber, John D., and Fares Khrais. "Allianz Türkiye (C): Managing the 2017 Hail Storm." Harvard Business School Supplement 223-084, March 2023.
  • March 2023 (Revised April 2024)
  • Case

Allianz Türkiye: Adapting to Climate Change

By: John D. Macomber and Fares Khrais
Allianz Turkey is a property casualty insurance company operating in a region experiencing increasing losses from natural catastrophe events related to climate change, for example hail, wildfire, and flooding. There are also substantial other natural catastrophe... View Details
Keywords: Insurance And Reinsurance; Natural Disasters; Turkey; Insurance; Climate Change; Analytics and Data Science; Insurance Industry; Financial Services Industry; Turkey
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Macomber, John D., and Fares Khrais. "Allianz Türkiye: Adapting to Climate Change." Harvard Business School Case 223-074, March 2023. (Revised April 2024.)
  • January 2014 (Revised February 2014)
  • Case

Japan: Betting on Inflation?

By: Julio J. Rotemberg
The case focuses on the challenges still confronting Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the end of 2013, a year after he has been in office. It also gives an overview of Japan's earlier economic performance, focusing primarily on the period after it suffered a stock market... View Details
Keywords: Quantitative Easing; Debt Sustainability; International Relations; Borrowing and Debt
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Rotemberg, Julio J. "Japan: Betting on Inflation?" Harvard Business School Case 714-040, January 2014. (Revised February 2014.)
  • March 2005 (Revised July 2007)
  • Case

Capital Controls in Chile in the 1990s (A)

By: Laura Alfaro, Rafael M. Di Tella and Ingrid Vogel
In 1991, Chile adopted a framework of capital controls focused on reducing the massive flows of foreign investment coming into the country as international interest rates remained low. Capital inflows threatened the Central Bank's ability to manage the exchange rate... View Details
Keywords: Developing Countries and Economies; Economic Growth; Financial Crisis; Capital; Governance Controls; Business and Government Relations; Chile
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Alfaro, Laura, Rafael M. Di Tella, and Ingrid Vogel. "Capital Controls in Chile in the 1990s (A)." Harvard Business School Case 705-031, March 2005. (Revised July 2007.)
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