Publications
Publications
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(1,292)
- Faculty Publications (555)
- October 2017 (Revised April 2018)
- Case
Improving Worker Safety in the Era of Machine Learning (A)
By: Michael W. Toffel, Dan Levy, Jose Ramon Morales Arilla and Matthew S. Johnson
Managers make predictions all the time: How fast will my markets grow? How much inventory do I need? How intensively should I monitor my suppliers? Which potential customers will be most responsive to a particular marketing campaign? Which job candidates should I... View Details
- September 2017
- Article
The Belief in a Favorable Future
By: Todd Rogers, Don A. Moore and Michael I. Norton
People believe that future others’ preferences and beliefs will change to align with their own. People holding a particular view (e.g., support of President Trump) are more likely to believe that future others will share their view than to believe that future others... View Details
- Article
Dying Is Unexpectedly Positive
By: Amelia Goranson, Ryan S. Ritter, Adam Waytz, Michael I. Norton and Kurt Gray
In people’s imagination, dying seems dreadful; however, these perceptions may not reflect reality. In two studies, we compared the affective experience of people facing imminent death with that of people imagining imminent death. Study 1 revealed that blog posts of... View Details
Keywords: Death; Language; LIWC; Positivity; Affective Forecasting; Open Materials; Perspective; Attitudes
- Article
Does the Scope of the Sell-Side Analyst Industry Matter? An Examination of Bias, Accuracy, and Information Content of Analyst Reports
By: Kenneth Merkley, Roni Michaely and Joseph Pacelli
We examine changes in the scope of the sell-side analyst industry and whether these changes impact information dissemination and the quality of analysts’ reports. Our findings suggest that changes in the number of analysts covering an industry impact analyst... View Details
- May 2017 (Revised March 2018)
- Case
Predicting Consumer Tastes with Big Data at Gap
By: Ayelet Israeli and Jill Avery
CEO Art Peck was eliminating his creative directors for The Gap, Old Navy, and Banana Republic brands and promoting a collective creative ecosystem fueled by the input of big data. Rather than relying on artistic vision, Peck wanted the company to use the mining of big... View Details
Keywords: Retailing; Preference Elicitation; Big Data; Predictive Analytics; Artificial Intelligence; Fashion; Marketing; Marketing Strategy; Marketing Channels; Brands and Branding; Consumer Behavior; Demand and Consumers; Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; E-commerce; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Fashion Industry; Retail Industry; United States; Canada; North America
- May 2017
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2017)
By: John Gourville
One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details
- April–May 2017
- Article
Career Concerns of Banking Analysts
By: Joanne Horton, George Serafeim and Shan Wu
We study how career concerns influence banking analysts' forecasts and how their forecasting behavior benefits both them and bank managers. We show that banking analysts issue early in the year relatively more optimistic and later in the year more pessimistic forecasts... View Details
- March 2017 (Revised February 2025)
- Case
Edwin Land: The Art and Science of Innovation
By: Tom Nicholas, Christopher T. Stanton and Matthew G. Preble
Throughout the second half of the 20th century, Polaroid first invented—and then continuously reinvented—the field of instant photography. Under the leadership of its mercurial founder Edwin Land, the company regularly released new instant cameras and films, often... View Details
Keywords: Instant Photography; Company History; Change Management; Disruption; Forecasting and Prediction; Entrepreneurship; Business History; Innovation Strategy; Disruptive Innovation; Innovation and Management; Intellectual Property; Patents; Product Marketing; Brands and Branding; Product Launch; Product Development; Chemical Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States
- March 2017 (Revised March 2022)
- Case
Flashion: Art vs. Science in Fashion Retailing
By: Kris Ferreira and Karim R. Lakhani
Kate Wilson, retail analytics manager at Flashion, a fashion flash-sale site, is tasked with developing analytics to optimize pricing for first-exposure products on the site. Many in the industry have relied on years of experience and intuition to determine pricing—can... View Details
- 2017
- Working Paper
Learning by Doing: The Value of Experience and the Origins of Skill for Mutual Fund Managers
By: Elisabeth Kempf, Alberto Manconi and Oliver Spalt
Learning by doing matters for professional investors. We develop a new methodology to show that mutual fund managers outperform in industries where they have obtained experience on the job. The key to our identification strategy is that we look "inside" funds and... View Details
- February 2017
- Case
GE Digital
By: Rajiv Lal and Scott Johnson
Known for manufacturing industrial equipment, GE has decided to invest in software and analytics capabilities to become a digital industrial company. They have also created a software platform that they hope will power the Industrial Internet. GE executives forecasted... View Details
Keywords: GE; General Electric; Manufacturing; Industrial Internet; Wind Power; Digital Manufacturing; Renewable Energy; Energy; Innovation and Management; Innovation Strategy; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Culture; Applications and Software; Growth and Development Strategy; Transformation; Green Technology Industry; Technology Industry; Manufacturing Industry; North America
- January 2017 (Revised August 2017)
- Case
Weathernews
By: Karim R. Lakhani and Akiko Kanno
Tomohiro Ishibashi (Bashi), chief executive officer for B to S, and Julia Foote LeStage, chief innovation officer of Weathernews Inc., were addressing a panel at the HBS Digital Summit on creative uses of big data. They told the summit attendees about how the Sakura... View Details
- January 2017
- Article
Being Surprised by the Unsurprising: Earnings Seasonality and Stock Returns
By: Tom Y. Chang, Samuel M. Hartzmark, David H. Solomon and Eugene F. Soltes
We present evidence consistent with markets failing to properly price information in seasonal earnings patterns. Firms with historically larger earnings in one quarter of the year (“positive seasonality quarters”) have higher returns when those earnings are usually... View Details
- November 2016 (Revised April 2018)
- Case
reMarkable: e-Writing the Future
By: Elie Ofek and Curtis Hsu
Magnus Wanberg is the creator of reMarkable, a breakthrough e-writer device set apart from similar products on the market by having solved the frustrating “slow ink” problem typically experienced on pen-based electronic devices, thus providing a “pen and paper” like... View Details
Keywords: Entrepreneurial Marketing; Innovation Management; Go To Market Strategy; Marketing Plan; Target Market; Digital Devices; Consumer Electronics; Forecasting; Information Technology; Marketing Strategy; Innovation and Management; Marketing Channels; Entrepreneurship; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Marketing; Product Development; Electronics Industry
- 2016
- Book
Innovation Equity: Assessing and Managing the Monetary Value of New Products and Services
By: Elie Ofek, Eitan Muller and Barak Libai
This book bridges the gap between what academics know, and what innovation stakeholders—from managers, to investors, to analysts, to consumers—need to know about how new products and services are expected to perform in the marketplace. The book develops a compelling... View Details
Keywords: Innovation; Technology Diffusion; New Products; Customer Lifetime Value; Monetization Strategy; Social Influence; Innovation Adoption; Forecasting Demand; Commercialization; Marketing Strategy; Practice; Customer Value and Value Chain; Research; Innovation and Management; Technology Adoption; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Development
- Article
Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates
By: Peter R. Joos, Joseph D. Piotroski and Suraj Srinivasan
We use a dataset of sell-side analysts' scenario-based valuation estimates to examine whether analysts reliably assess the risk surrounding a firm's fundamental value. We find that the spread in analysts' state-side contingent valuations captures the riskiness of... View Details
- August 2016
- Article
The Role of (Dis)similarity in (Mis)predicting Others' Preferences
By: Kate Barasz, Tami Kim and Leslie K. John
Consumers readily indicate liking options that appear dissimilar—for example, enjoying both rustic lake vacations and chic city vacations or liking both scholarly documentary films and action-packed thrillers. However, when predicting other consumers’ tastes for the... View Details
- June 2016 (Revised May 2017)
- Case
Searching for a New CEO: TiVo 2016
By: David B. Yoffie
In 2015, TiVo initiated a search for a new CEO. This case provides a profile of the CEO search and background on the company. View Details
- May 20, 2016
- Comment
World Health Organization Lacks Leadership to Combat Pandemics
By: John A. Quelch
When it comes to emergency preparedness for pandemics, the World Health Organization is falling short. It has not provided prompt and clear leadership to the world in combating either the Ebola or Zika viruses. Its leadership has been low energy, its representatives... View Details
Keywords: Global Health; World Health Organization; World Bank; Pandemics; Emergency Preparedness; Experience and Expertise; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Communication Strategy; Nonverbal Communication; Framework; Governance; Government and Politics; Health; Management; Practice; Problems and Challenges; Projects; Risk and Uncertainty; Human Needs; Civil Society or Community; Social Issues; Welfare or Wellbeing; Biotechnology Industry; Health Industry; Journalism and News Industry; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry; Public Administration Industry; Tourism Industry; Transportation Industry; Travel Industry; Africa; Asia; Europe; Latin America; North and Central America; South America; West Indies
- April 2016
- Teaching Note
Whither the Weather (Company): Forecasting 2016
By: Rosabeth Moss Kanter and Jonathan Cohen
This Note was created for the purpose of aiding classroom instructors in the use of the Harvard Business School case, "Whither the Weather (Company): Forecasting 2016." As chairman and CEO, David Kenny guided the Weather Company's transformation from a cable television... View Details