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      • Faculty Publications  (1,058)

      Forecasting And PredictionRemove Forecasting And Prediction →

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      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions

      By: Caleb Kwon, Ananth Raman and Jorge Tamayo
      We empirically analyze how managerial overrides to a commercial algorithm that forecasts demand and schedules labor affect store performance. We analyze administrative data from a large grocery retailer that utilizes a commercial algorithm to forecast demand and... View Details
      Keywords: Employees; Human Capital; Performance; Applications and Software; Management Skills; Management Practices and Processes; Retail Industry
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      Kwon, Caleb, Ananth Raman, and Jorge Tamayo. "Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions." Working Paper, December 2022. (R&R Management Science.)
      • Article

      Innovations in Retail Operations: Thirty Years of Lessons from Production and Operations Management

      By: Marshall Fisher and Ananth Raman
      We review papers published in Production and Operations Management (POM) during its thirty-year history that deal with retail operations issues with an empirical approach. The papers span a range of issues, from traditional ones like forecasting and inventory... View Details
      Keywords: RFID; Innovation and Invention; Technology Adoption; Operations; E-commerce; Strategy; Retail Industry
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      Fisher, Marshall, and Ananth Raman. "Innovations in Retail Operations: Thirty Years of Lessons from Production and Operations Management." Special Issue on The 30th Anniversary Issue of Production and Operations Management edited by Subodha Kumar and Christopher S. Tang. Production and Operations Management 31, no. 12 (December 1, 2022): 4452–4461.
      • 2022
      • Article

      Which Explanation Should I Choose? A Function Approximation Perspective to Characterizing Post hoc Explanations

      By: Tessa Han, Suraj Srinivas and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      A critical problem in the field of post hoc explainability is the lack of a common foundational goal among methods. For example, some methods are motivated by function approximation, some by game theoretic notions, and some by obtaining clean visualizations. This... View Details
      Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Decision Choices and Conditions; Analytics and Data Science
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      Han, Tessa, Suraj Srinivas, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Which Explanation Should I Choose? A Function Approximation Perspective to Characterizing Post hoc Explanations." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) (2022). (Best Paper Award, International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) Workshop on Interpretable ML in Healthcare.)
      • November 22, 2022
      • Article

      Is Novel Research Worth Doing? Evidence from Peer Review at 49 Journals

      By: Misha Teplitskiy, Hao Peng, Andrea Blasco and Karim R. Lakhani
      There are long-standing concerns that peer review, which is foundational to scientific institutions like journals and funding agencies, favors conservative ideas over novel ones. We investigate the association between novelty and the acceptance of manuscripts submitted... View Details
      Keywords: Research; Journals and Magazines
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      Teplitskiy, Misha, Hao Peng, Andrea Blasco, and Karim R. Lakhani. "Is Novel Research Worth Doing? Evidence from Peer Review at 49 Journals." e2118046119. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 47 (November 22, 2022).
      • 2022
      • Article

      A Human-Centric Take on Model Monitoring

      By: Murtuza Shergadwala, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Krishnaram Kenthapadi
      Predictive models are increasingly used to make various consequential decisions in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, finance, and policy. It becomes critical to ensure that these models make accurate predictions, are robust to shifts in the data, do not rely on... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Research and Development; Demand and Consumers
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      Shergadwala, Murtuza, Himabindu Lakkaraju, and Krishnaram Kenthapadi. "A Human-Centric Take on Model Monitoring." Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Human Computation and Crowdsourcing (HCOMP) 10 (2022): 173–183.
      • November 2022
      • Article

      Hate Crime Towards Minoritized Groups Increases as They Increase in Sized-Based Rank

      By: Mina Cikara, Vasiliki Fouka and Marco Tabellini
      People are on the move in unprecedented numbers within and between countries. How does demographic change affect local intergroup dynamics? In complement to accounts that emphasize stereotypical features of groups as determinants of their treatment, we propose the... View Details
      Keywords: Prejudice; Minority; Hate Crimes; Reference Dependence; Prejudice and Bias; Attitudes; Demographics
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      Cikara, Mina, Vasiliki Fouka, and Marco Tabellini. "Hate Crime Towards Minoritized Groups Increases as They Increase in Sized-Based Rank." Nature Human Behaviour 6, no. 11 (November 2022): 1537–1544. (Pre-Published online August 8, 2022, Featured in HBS Working Knowledge and ABC News.)
      • November 2022
      • Article

      The Sharp Spikes of Poverty: Financial Scarcity Is Related to Higher Levels of Distress Intensity in Daily Life

      By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Erin L. Frey, Sandra C. Matz, Bertus F. Jeronimus and Adam D. Galinsky
      Although income is an important predictor of life satisfaction, the precise forces that drive this relationship remain unclear. We propose that financial resources afford individuals a path to reducing the distressing impact of everyday hassles, in turn increasing... View Details
      Keywords: Distress; Affect; Control; Financial Scarcity; Life Satisfaction; Income; Poverty; Well-being
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      Jachimowicz, Jon M., Erin L. Frey, Sandra C. Matz, Bertus F. Jeronimus, and Adam D. Galinsky. "The Sharp Spikes of Poverty: Financial Scarcity Is Related to Higher Levels of Distress Intensity in Daily Life." Social Psychological & Personality Science 13, no. 8 (November 2022): 1187–1198.
      • October 2022 (Revised December 2022)
      • Case

      SMART: AI and Machine Learning for Wildlife Conservation

      By: Brian Trelstad and Bonnie Yining Cao
      Spatial Monitoring and Reporting Tool (SMART), a set of software and analytical tools designed for the purpose of wildlife conservation, had demonstrated significant improvements in patrol coverage, with some observed reductions in poaching and contributing to wildlife... View Details
      Keywords: Business and Government Relations; Emerging Markets; Technology Adoption; Strategy; Management; Ethics; Social Enterprise; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Natural Environment; Technology Industry; Cambodia; United States; Africa
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      Trelstad, Brian, and Bonnie Yining Cao. "SMART: AI and Machine Learning for Wildlife Conservation." Harvard Business School Case 323-036, October 2022. (Revised December 2022.)
      • October 17, 2022
      • Article

      Relational Diversity in Social Portfolios Predicts Well-Being

      By: Hanne K. Collins, Serena F. Hagerty, Jordi Quoidbach, Michael I. Norton and Alison Wood Brooks
      We document a link between the relational diversity of one’s social portfolio—the richness and evenness of relationship types across one’s social interactions—and well-being. Across four distinct samples, respondents from the United States who completed a preregistered... View Details
      Keywords: Social Interaction; Social Engagement; Well-being; Happiness; Social and Collaborative Networks; Family and Family Relationships
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      Collins, Hanne K., Serena F. Hagerty, Jordi Quoidbach, Michael I. Norton, and Alison Wood Brooks. "Relational Diversity in Social Portfolios Predicts Well-Being." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 43 (October 17, 2022).
      • October–December 2022
      • Article

      Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem

      By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius
      Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed... View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning; Econometric Analysis; Instrumental Variable; Random Forest; Causal Inference; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Yang, Mochen, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch, and Gediminas Adomavicius. "Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem." INFORMS Journal on Data Science 1, no. 2 (October–December 2022): 138–155.
      • October 2022
      • Article

      Revisiting Extraversion and Leadership Emergence: A Social Network Churn Perspective

      By: Blaine Landis, Jon M. Jachimowicz, Dan J. Wang and Robert W. Krause
      One of the classic relationships in personality psychology is that extraversion is associated with emerging as an informal leader. However, recent findings raise questions about the longevity of extraverted individuals as emergent leaders. Here, we adopt a social... View Details
      Keywords: Extraversion; Social Networks; Emergent Leadership; Leadership Development; Personal Characteristics; Perception
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      Landis, Blaine, Jon M. Jachimowicz, Dan J. Wang, and Robert W. Krause. "Revisiting Extraversion and Leadership Emergence: A Social Network Churn Perspective." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 123, no. 4 (October 2022): 811–829.
      • September 2022
      • Article

      Tone at the Bottom: Measuring Corporate Misconduct Risk from the Text of Employee Reviews

      By: Dennis W. Campbell and Ruidi Shang
      This paper examines whether information extracted via text-based statistical methods applied to employee reviews left on the website Glassdoor.com can be used to develop indicators of corporate misconduct risk. We argue that inside information on the incidence of... View Details
      Keywords: Management Accounting; Management Control; Corporate Culture; Corporate Misconduct; Risk Measurement; Organizational Culture; Crime and Corruption; Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics
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      Campbell, Dennis W., and Ruidi Shang. "Tone at the Bottom: Measuring Corporate Misconduct Risk from the Text of Employee Reviews." Management Science 68, no. 9 (September 2022): 7034–7053.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Effect of Employee Lateness and Absenteeism on Store Performance

      By: Caleb Kwon and Ananth Raman
      We empirically analyze the effects of employee lateness and absenteeism on store performance by examining 25.5 million employee shift timecards covering more than 100,000 employees across more than 500 U.S. retail grocery store locations over a four year time period.... View Details
      Keywords: Absenteeism; Lateness; Scheduling; Performance Productivity; Employees; Retail Industry
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      Kwon, Caleb, and Ananth Raman. "The Effect of Employee Lateness and Absenteeism on Store Performance." Working Paper, August 2022.
      • August 2022
      • Article

      What Makes a Good Image? Airbnb Demand Analytics Leveraging Interpretable Image Features

      By: Shunyuan Zhang, Dokyun Lee, Param Vir Singh and Kannan Srinivasan
      We study how Airbnb property demand changed after the acquisition of verified images (taken by Airbnb’s photographers) and explore what makes a good image for an Airbnb property. Using deep learning and difference-in-difference analyses on an Airbnb panel dataset... View Details
      Keywords: Sharing Economy; Airbnb; Property Demand; Computer Vision; Deep Learning; Image Feature Extraction; Content Engineering; Property; Marketing; Demand and Consumers
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      Zhang, Shunyuan, Dokyun Lee, Param Vir Singh, and Kannan Srinivasan. "What Makes a Good Image? Airbnb Demand Analytics Leveraging Interpretable Image Features." Management Science 68, no. 8 (August 2022): 5644–5666.
      • Winter 2022
      • Article

      Determinants of Small Business Reopening Decisions After COVID Restrictions Were Lifted

      By: Dylan Balla-Elliott, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca and Christopher Stanton
      The COVID-19 pandemic led to dramatic economic disruptions, including government-imposed restrictions that temporarily shuttered millions of American businesses. We use a nation-wide survey of thousands of small business owners to establish three main facts about... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Demand Forecasting; Reopening; Health Pandemics; Government Administration; Small Business
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      Balla-Elliott, Dylan, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca, and Christopher Stanton. "Determinants of Small Business Reopening Decisions After COVID Restrictions Were Lifted." Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 41, no. 1 (Winter 2022): 278–317.
      • July 2022
      • Article

      The Developmental Origins and Behavioral Consequences of Attributions for Inequality

      By: Antonya Marie Gonzalez, Lucia Macchia and Ashley V. Whillans
      Attributions, or lay explanations for inequality, have been linked to inequality-relevant behavior. In adults and children, attributing inequality to an individual rather than contextual or structural causes is linked to greater support for economic inequality and less... View Details
      Keywords: Equality and Inequality; Behavior; Perception
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      Gonzalez, Antonya Marie, Lucia Macchia, and Ashley V. Whillans. "The Developmental Origins and Behavioral Consequences of Attributions for Inequality." Art. 104329. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 101 (July 2022).
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Scope 3 Carbon Emissions

      By: George Serafeim and Gladys Vélez Caicedo
      For most organizations, the vast amount of carbon emissions occur in their supply chain and in the post-sale processing, usage, and end of life treatment of a product, collectively labelled scope 3 emissions. In this paper, we train machine learning algorithms on 15... View Details
      Keywords: Carbon Emissions; Climate Change; Environment; Carbon Accounting; Machine Learning; Artificial Intelligence; Digital; Data Science; Environmental Sustainability; Environmental Management; Environmental Accounting
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      Serafeim, George, and Gladys Vélez Caicedo. "Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Scope 3 Carbon Emissions." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-080, June 2022.
      • May 2022
      • Supplement

      Maestro Pizza (B): The Competition Awakens

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Fares Khrais
      Maestro pizza opened its first store in 2013 after its founder, Khalid Al Omran, recognized an opportunity in Saudi Arabia to offer high quality pizza at affordable prices. The business grew rapidly and under the radar at first, but soon enough caught the attention of... View Details
      Keywords: Competitive Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Competition; Market Entry and Exit; Emerging Markets; Business Startups; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Product Positioning; Disruption; Disruptive Innovation; Advertising; Advertising Campaigns; Social Media; Forecasting and Prediction; Crisis Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Brands and Branding; Product Development; Production; Service Delivery; Business Growth and Maturation; Financial Statements; Cost Management; Analysis; Quality; Performance Consistency; Customer Satisfaction; Profit; Family Ownership; Food and Beverage Industry; Saudi Arabia; Middle East
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, and Fares Khrais. "Maestro Pizza (B): The Competition Awakens." Harvard Business School Supplement 722-400, May 2022.
      • May 2022
      • Supplement

      Maestro Pizza (C): Taking the Fight Outside

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Fares Khrais
      Maestro pizza opened its first store in 2013 after its founder, Khalid Al Omran, recognized an opportunity in Saudi Arabia to offer high quality pizza at affordable prices. The business grew rapidly and under the radar at first, but soon enough caught the attention of... View Details
      Keywords: Competitive Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Competition; Market Entry and Exit; Emerging Markets; Business Startups; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Product Positioning; Disruption; Disruptive Innovation; Advertising; Advertising Campaigns; Social Media; Forecasting and Prediction; Crisis Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Brands and Branding; Product Development; Production; Service Delivery; Business Growth and Maturation; Financial Statements; Cost Management; Analysis; Quality; Performance Consistency; Customer Satisfaction; Profit; Family Ownership; Food and Beverage Industry; Middle East; Saudi Arabia
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, and Fares Khrais. "Maestro Pizza (C): Taking the Fight Outside." Harvard Business School Supplement 722-401, May 2022.
      • May 2022
      • Case

      Maestro Pizza: Coming in Hot!

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Fares Khrais
      Maestro Pizza opened its first store in 2013 after its founder, Khalid Al Omran, recognized an opportunity in Saudi Arabia to offer high quality pizza at affordable prices. The business grew rapidly and under the radar at first, but soon enough caught the attention of... View Details
      Keywords: Competitive Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Competition; Market Entry and Exit; Emerging Markets; Business Startups; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Product Positioning; Disruption; Disruptive Innovation; Advertising; Advertising Campaigns; Social Media; Forecasting and Prediction; Crisis Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Brands and Branding; Product Development; Production; Service Delivery; Business Growth and Maturation; Financial Statements; Cost Management; Analysis; Quality; Performance Consistency; Customer Satisfaction; Profit; Family Ownership; Food and Beverage Industry; Middle East; Saudi Arabia
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, and Fares Khrais. "Maestro Pizza: Coming in Hot!" Harvard Business School Case 722-399, May 2022.
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