Cash Flow Analysis - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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March 2001
Background Note

Extracting Information from the Futures and Forwards Markets: The Relation between Spot Prices, Forward Prices and Expected Future Spot Prices

Discounted cash flow valuation calls for using expected future prices of inputs or outputs. This case describes the relationship between spot prices, forward/future prices, and expected future prices. Knowing current forward and future prices alone is not enough to... View Details

Keywords: Price; Cash Flow; Valuation; Futures and Commodity Futures

2020
Working Paper

An Empirical Guide to Investor-Level Private Equity Data from Preqin

By: Juliane Begenau, Claudia Robles-Garcia, Emil Siriwardane and Lulu Wang

This note provides guidance on the use of investor-level private equity data from Preqin for empirical research. Preqin primarily sources its cash flow data through Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests with U.S. public pensions. Our focus is on the components of... View Details

Keywords: Private Equity Returns; Prequin Data; Private Equity; Analytics and Data Science; Investment Return

September 2003
Case

Valuing a Cross-Border LBO: Bidding on the Yell Group

By: Mihir A. Desai, Paolo Notarnicola and Mark Veblen

A team of private equity investors must value the leveraged buyout of a Yellow Pages business that operated in both the United States and the United Kingdom. In the process, they must wrestle with issues of how to conduct cross-border valuations and how to value a... View Details

Keywords: Leveraged Buyouts; Cash Flow; Private Equity; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Valuation

January 2024 (Revised May 2024)
Case

Pioneer Natural Resources: Enhancing the Capital Return Strategy with Variable Dividends

By: Benjamin C. Esty, Elisabeth Kempf and E. Scott Mayfield

In February 2021, Scott Sheffield, the CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources (an independent oil and gas company based in Texas), was considering the possibility of enhancing the firm’s capital return strategy by introducing a variable dividend tied to cash flows in... View Details

Keywords: Corporate Finance; Cash Flow; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Value Creation; Decision Choices and Conditions; Investment Return; Profit; Policy; Business and Shareholder Relations; Energy Industry; United States; North America; Texas

February 2010 (Revised June 2022)
Case

Dollarama Inc.

By: Andre F. Perold

Dollarama is the leading operator of dollar stores in Canada. The firm performed extraordinarily well after a leveraged buyout in 2004 and recently executed a highly successful IPO. The company sources its goods primarily from Asia. It has strong brand recognition and... View Details

Keywords: Price; Growth and Development Strategy; Product Positioning; Supply Chain; Competitive Advantage; Valuation; Consumer Products Industry; Retail Industry; Canada

Article

Valuation of Bankrupt Firms

By: S. C. Gilson, E. S. Hotchkiss and R. S. Ruback

This study compares the market value of firms that reorganize in bankruptcy with estimates of value based on management's published cash flow projections. We estimate firm values using models that have been shown in other contexts to generate relatively precise... View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Business Ventures; Insolvency and Bankruptcy

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November 1992
Background Note

Note on Service Mapping

By: James L. Heskett

Illustrates a simple technique for diagramming operations flows in service companies. Can be used to help structure analysis and discussion of cases involving sequenced operations. View Details

Keywords: Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Operations; Business Processes; Organizational Structure; Service Industry

March 1993
Case

Clarion Optical Co.

By: Michael J. Roberts and Howard H. Stevenson

Focuses on two individuals' attempts to purchase Clarion Optical Co. Forces students to consider alternative proposals for financing the purchase; generate pro forma cash flows to assess the feasibility of these proposals; estimate the sources and magnitude of... View Details

Keywords: Leveraged Buyouts; Financing and Loans; Investment Return; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction

Research Summary

Time Varying Expected Returns, Stochastic Dividend Yields, and Default Probabilities: Linking the Credit Risk and Equity Literature (with George Chacko and Jens Hilscher)

In standard structural bond pricing models, the firm defaults once the market value of assets has fallen below a threshold. Expected returns, or at least dividend yields, are assumed to be constant, which implies that any asset value movement is permanent and has the... View Details

November 2009 (Revised May 2017)
Case

Miracle Life, Inc.

By: Lauren Cohen and Christopher Malloy

Miracle Life is a firm with a unique setup and organizational structure. Specifically, it is a network marketing firm, also known as multi-level marketing (MLM) firm, which utilizes a large distributor base and depends on this individual distributor base to sell its... View Details

Keywords: Finance; Cash Flow; Stocks; Growth and Development Strategy; Product Marketing; Distribution; Organizational Structure

January 2020 (Revised July 2020)
Supplement

MoviePass: The 'Get Big Fast' Strategy

By: Benjamin C. Esty and Daniel Fisher

In August 2017, MoviePass dramatically lowered its subscription price from $50 per month to just $10 for up to one movie per day. The idea was to rapidly scale the business to the point where they could generate incremental revenue streams form related businesses... View Details

November 2009
Background Note

Business Valuation and the Cost of Capital

By: Timothy A. Luehrman

This note is an introduction to the cost of capital as used in discounted cash flow valuation analyses. The note covers basic financial economic principles and practical problems encountered in calculating the cost of capital, especially WACC. It concludes with... View Details

Keywords: Economics; Capital Budgeting; Cash Flow; Cost of Capital; Valuation

March 2011 (Revised November 2011)
Supplement

Harmonic Hearing Co., Spreadsheet Supplement (Brief Case)

By: Howard H. Stevenson and Craig Stephenson

Keywords: Debts; Quantitative Analysis; Financing; Entrepreneurial Finance; Development Stage Enterprises; Small ＆ Medium-sized Enterprises; Analysis; Cash Flow; Entrepreneurship; Financing and Loans; Borrowing and Debt

2018
Working Paper

Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors

By: Luis M. Viceira and Zixuan (Kevin) Wang

This paper conducts a theoretical and empirical investigation of global portfolio diversification for long-horizon investors in the presence of permanent cash flow shocks and transitory discount rate shocks to asset prices and returns. An increase in the cross-country... View Details

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Risk and Uncertainty; Diversification; Capital Markets; Global Range

June 1992
Case

Arundel Partners: The Sequel Project

By: Timothy A. Luehrman and William A. Teichner

A group of investors is considering buying the sequel rights for a portfolio of feature films. They need to determine how much to offer to pay and how to structure a contract with one or more major U.S. film studios. The case contains cash flow estimates for all major... View Details

Keywords: Rights; Debt Securities; Contracts; Cash Flow; Valuation; Capital Budgeting; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Motion Pictures and Video Industry; United States

August 1972 (Revised September 2000)
Background Note

Introduction to Accumulated Value, Present Value, and Internal Rate of Return

A simple, intuitive introduction to the usually-difficult topics of discounting and present value. While the mechanics of computing present value and internal rate of return are covered well, the emphasis is more about how to think about these concepts (for example,... View Details

Keywords: Accounting

December 1991 (Revised November 1993)
Case

U.S. Bank of Washington

A vice president of the U.S. Bank of Washington, a subsidiary of U.S. Bancorp, is asked to review a $6.5 million loan request from the Redhook Ale Brewery, a Seattle-based microbrewery. The case provides an understanding of the U.S. commercial banking industry and the... View Details

Keywords: Cash Flow; Financing and Loans; Financial Statements; Commercial Banking; Banking Industry; Seattle

March 2011 (Revised November 2011)
Teaching Note

Harmonic Hearing Co. (Brief Case)

By: Howard H. Stevenson and Craig Stephenson

Teaching Note for 4271. View Details

Keywords: Debts; Quantitative Analysis; Financing; Entrepreneurial Finance; Development Stage Enterprises; Small ＆ Medium-sized Enterprises; Cash Flow; Mathematical Methods; Entrepreneurship; Financing and Loans; Borrowing and Debt

February 1992 (Revised July 1992)
Background Note

Note on Cross-Border Valuation

By: W. Carl Kester and Julia Morley

Provides a fundamental technical review of valuation techniques used to assess cross-border investments. Discusses the discounting of free cash flows with a weighted average cost of capital, the use of adjusted present value, and the importance of considering real... View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues

August 2011 (Revised November 2017)
Case

Adaptive Engineering, LLC

By: Richard S. Ruback and Royce Yudkoff

The owner and CEO of Adaptive Engineering was facing an important decision: should he focus on rebuilding its core professional services business which had generated significant revenue and cash flow over the past several years, or should he focus on developing and... View Details

Keywords: Leadership; Growth and Development Strategy; Decision Making; Service Industry; Technology Industry

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