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- All HBS Web
(2,903)
- News (457)
- Research (2,159)
- Events (39)
- Multimedia (14)
- Faculty Publications (1,383)
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- 2014
- Article
The Promise of Prediction Contests
By: Phillip E. Pfeifer, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
This article examines the prediction contest as a vehicle for aggregating the opinions of a crowd of experts. After proposing a general definition distinguishing prediction contests from other mechanisms for harnessing the wisdom of crowds, we focus on... View Details
Pfeifer, Phillip E., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl. "The Promise of Prediction Contests." American Statistician 68, no. 4 (2014): 264–270.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Auditing Predictive Models for Intersectional Biases
By: Kate S. Boxer, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
Predictive models that satisfy group fairness criteria in aggregate for members of a protected class, but do not guarantee subgroup fairness, could produce biased predictions for individuals at the intersection of two or more protected classes. To address this risk, we... View Details
Boxer, Kate S., Edward McFowland III, and Daniel B. Neill. "Auditing Predictive Models for Intersectional Biases." Working Paper, June 2023.
- May 2017 (Revised March 2018)
- Case
Predicting Consumer Tastes with Big Data at Gap
By: Ayelet Israeli and Jill Avery
CEO Art Peck was eliminating his creative directors for The Gap, Old Navy, and Banana Republic brands and promoting a collective creative ecosystem fueled by the input of big data. Rather than relying on artistic vision, Peck wanted the company to use the mining of big... View Details
Keywords: Retailing; Preference Elicitation; Big Data; Predictive Analytics; Artificial Intelligence; Fashion; Marketing; Marketing Strategy; Marketing Channels; Brands and Branding; Consumer Behavior; Demand and Consumers; Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; E-commerce; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Fashion Industry; Retail Industry; United States; Canada; North America
Israeli, Ayelet, and Jill Avery. "Predicting Consumer Tastes with Big Data at Gap." Harvard Business School Case 517-115, May 2017. (Revised March 2018.)
- 2008
- Book
Predictable Surprises
By: Max Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins
Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss (or ignore) the warning signs. This book shows why such "predictable surprises" put us all at risk, and shows how we can understand, anticipate, and prevent them before... View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior
Bazerman, Max, and Michael D. Watkins. Predictable Surprises. Paperback ed. Harvard Business School Press, 2008.
- November 2017
- Teaching Note
Predicting Consumer Tastes with Big Data at Gap
By: Ayelet Israeli and Jill Avery
CEO Art Peck was eliminating his creative directors for The Gap, Old Navy, and Banana Republic brands and promoting a collective creative ecosystem fueled by the input of big data. Rather than relying on artistic vision, Peck wanted the company to use the mining of big... View Details
Keywords: Brands; Brand ＆ Product Management; Big Data; ＂Marketing Analytics＂; Consumer Behavior; Predictive Analytics; Forecasting; Preferences; Operation Management; Distribution Channels; Marketing; Marketing Channels; Marketing Strategy; Brands and Branding; Forecasting and Prediction; Data and Data Sets; Retail Industry; Fashion Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; United States; North America
- October 2019 (Revised August 2020)
- Case
The Predictive Index
By: Lynda M. Applegate and James Weber
Mike Zani and Daniel Muzquiz needed to decide next steps to create a new category in the human resources consulting industry and scale their company.
Zani and Muzquiz, serial entrepreneurs, acquired Predictive Index in 2014. Previously, as clients of the... View Details
Zani and Muzquiz, serial entrepreneurs, acquired Predictive Index in 2014. Previously, as clients of the... View Details
Keywords: Human Resources; Selection and Staffing; Talent and Talent Management; Recruitment; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Change Management; Disruptive Innovation; Digital Platforms; Growth and Development Strategy; Consulting Industry; Service Industry; United States
Applegate, Lynda M., and James Weber. "The Predictive Index." Harvard Business School Case 820-034, October 2019. (Revised August 2020.)
- May 2007 (Revised August 2007)
- Case
Prediction Markets at Google
By: Peter A. Coles, Karim R. Lakhani and Andrew P. McAfee
In its eight quarters of operation, Google's internally developed prediction market has delivered accurate and decisive predictions about future events of interest to the company. Google must now determine how to increase participation in the market, and how to best... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Sharing; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Market Participation; Information Technology
Coles, Peter A., Karim R. Lakhani, and Andrew P. McAfee. "Prediction Markets at Google." Harvard Business School Case 607-088, May 2007. (Revised August 2007.)
- 2009
- Case
The Prediction Lover's Handbook
By: Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris
When picking assessment tools to inform better decisions about future paths, executives are faced with a wide variety of options--some of which are well established, while others are in early stages of development. The authors provide an insider's guide to prediction... View Details
Davenport, Thomas H., and Jeanne G. Harris. "The Prediction Lover's Handbook." 2009.
- 2004
- Book
Predictable Surprises
By: M. H. Bazerman and M. Watkins
Bazerman, M. H., and M. Watkins. Predictable Surprises. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2004. (Winner of Kulp-Wright Book Award For the book considered to be the most influential text published on the economics of risk management and insurance presented by American Risk and Insurance Association. Paperback published in 2008.)
- April 2022
- Article
Predictable Financial Crises
Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Ahm Sørensen. "Predictable Financial Crises." Journal of Finance 77, no. 2 (April 2022): 863–921.
- Research Summary
An Uncomfortable Predictability Paradox
In predictive regressions, we test the null hypothesis that a predictor has no information about expected returns, i.e. beta equals zero. However, the literature neglects to recognize that we are testing a joint hypothesis. The maintained... View Details
- January 2011 (Revised March 2011)
- Case
Predictive Biosciences
By: Thomas R. Eisenmann, Jeffrey J. Bussgang and David Kiron
A small cancer diagnostics start-up is deciding whether to acquire a laboratory to make and sell its bladder cancer test or build its own manufacturing and sales team. View Details
Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Factories, Labs, and Plants; Business Startups; Entrepreneurship; Health Testing and Trials; Growth and Development Strategy; Product Development; Biotechnology Industry
Eisenmann, Thomas R., Jeffrey J. Bussgang, and David Kiron. "Predictive Biosciences." Harvard Business School Case 811-015, January 2011. (Revised March 2011.)
- August 2008
- Article
Economic Links and Predictable Returns
By: Lauren Cohen and Andrea Frazzini
This paper finds evidence of return predictability across economically linked firms. We test the hypothesis that in the presence of investors subject to attention constraints, stock prices do not promptly incorporate news about economically related firms, generating... View Details
Keywords: Economics; Price; Assets; Analytics and Data Science; Customers; Stocks; Equity; Strategy; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction
Cohen, Lauren, and Andrea Frazzini. "Economic Links and Predictable Returns." Journal of Finance 63, no. 4 (August 2008). (Winner of Smith Breeden Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Finance in Asset Pricing (Distinguished Paper) 2008. Winner of Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Chicago Quantitative Alliance. Winner of BSI Gamma Foundation Research Grant presented by BSI Gamma Foundation.)
- November 2001 (Revised September 2002)
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion
One of the critical tasks in the marketing of new innovations is predicting demand and rates of diffusion for those products. Focuses on four innovative products from different domains. Although one can speculate on the scope and rate of diffusion for each of these... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Demand and Consumers; Technology Adoption
Gourville, John T. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion." Harvard Business School Case 502-045, November 2001. (Revised September 2002.)
- 07 Jul 2020
- Working Paper Summaries
Predictable Financial Crises
- 2022
- Chapter
What Predicts Corruption?
By: Emanuele Colonnelli, Jorge Gallego and Mounu Prem
Keywords: Crime and Corruption
Colonnelli, Emanuele, Jorge Gallego, and Mounu Prem. "What Predicts Corruption?" Chap. 16 in A Modern Guide to the Economics of Crime, edited by Paolo Buonanno, Paolo Vanin, and Juan Vargas, 345–373. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2022.
- January 2006 (Revised August 2006)
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2006)
One of the critical tasks in the marketing of new innovations is predicting demand and rates of diffusion for those products. Focuses on four innovative products from different domains. Although one can speculate on the scope and rate of diffusion for each of these... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Demand and Consumers; Technology Adoption
Gourville, John T. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2006)." Harvard Business School Case 506-050, January 2006. (Revised August 2006.)
- August 2018
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2018)
By: John Gourville
One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details
Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Marketing; Forecasting and Prediction; Demand and Consumers; Adoption; Product Launch
Gourville, John. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2018)." Harvard Business School Case 519-018, August 2018.
- May 2017
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2017)
By: John Gourville
One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details
- 2005
- Working Paper
Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions
By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler
A number of studies claim that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, have power to predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these results may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's... View Details
Keywords: Managerial Roles; Equity; Market Timing; Financial Instruments; Investment Return; Mathematical Methods
Baker, Malcolm, Ryan Taliaferro, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 10823, January 2005. (First Draft in 2004.)