Publications

2021
Working Paper

Real Credit Cycles

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen J. Terry

We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of U.S.... View Details

Keywords: Econometric Models; Business Cycles; Credit

2007
Working Paper

Irving Fisher, Economic Forecasting, and the Myth of the Business Cycle

By: Walter A. Friedman

A premier economist of the twentieth century and a founder of neoclassical thought, Irving Fisher was also an active participant in the field of economic forecasting. Fisher made theoretical contributions to the understanding of economic fluctuations, popularized the... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Economics; Business Cycles; Business History; Newspapers; Personal Development and Career

June 2020
Article

U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles

By: Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina

Foreign banks’ lending to firms in emerging market economies (EMEs) is large and denominated predominantly in U.S. dollars. This creates a direct connection between U.S. monetary policy and EME credit cycles. We estimate that over a typical U.S. monetary easing cycle,... View Details

Keywords: Global Business Cycle; Monetary Policy; Reaching For Yield; Money; Policy; Credit; Emerging Markets

August 2004
Article

Capital Controls, Risk and Liberalization Cycles

By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

The paper presents an overlapping-generations model where agents vote on whether to open or close the economy to international capital flows. Political decisions are shaped by the risk over capital and labor returns. In an open economy, the capitalists (old) completely... View Details

Keywords: Business Cycles; Development Economics; Voting; Risk and Uncertainty; Cash Flow; Saving; Investment; Economy; Wages

In The Venture Capital Cycle, Paul Gompers and Josh Lerner correct widespread misperceptions about the nature and role of the venture capitalist and provide an accessible and comprehensive overview of the venture capital industry. Bringing together fifteen... View Details

29 Sep 2010
Working Paper Summaries

Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries

Keywords: by Diego Comin, Norman Loayza, Farooq Pasha & Luis Serven

05 Nov 2009
Working Paper Summaries

Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries

Keywords: by Diego Comin, Norman Loayza, Farooq Pasha & Luis Serven

2010
Working Paper

Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries

By: Diego A. Comin, Norman Loayza, Farooq Pasha and Luis Serven

We build a two-country asymmetric DSGE model with two features: (i) endogenous and slow diffusion of technologies from the developed to the developing country, and (ii) adjustment costs to investment flows. We calibrate the model to match the Mexico-U.S. trade and FDI... View Details

Keywords: Business Cycles; Developing Countries and Economies; Trade; International Finance; Foreign Direct Investment; Mathematical Methods; Mexico; United States

04 Mar 2016
Working Paper Summaries

Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle

Keywords: by David Lopez-Salido, Jeremy C. Stein, and Egon Zakrajsek; Banking

February 2011
Module Note

Business Cycles and the New Challenges of Globalization

By: Diego A. Comin

Business Cycles and the New Challenges of Globalization is one of the core modules in Business Government and the International Economy (BGIE), a course for the required curriculum of the Harvard Business School. BGIE teaches the economic, political and historical... View Details

Keywords: Fluctuation; Business Cycles; Trade; Business Education; Curriculum and Courses; Capital; Cash Flow; Globalization; Problems and Challenges; China

Purchase

2016
Working Paper

Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle

By: David Lopez-Salido, Jeremy C. Stein and Egon Zakrajsek

Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2013, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t – 2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t and t + 1. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions.... View Details

Keywords: Investment; Credit; Macroeconomics

Purchase

Article

Markups and the Business Cycle

By: J. J. Rotemberg and Michael Woodford

Keywords: Business Cycles

May 2010
Article

Loan Syndication and Credit Cycles

By: Victoria Ivashina and David Scharfstein

Cyclicality in the supply of business credit has been the focus of a considerable amount of research. This cyclicality can stem from shocks to borrowers' collateral, which affect firms' ability to raise capital if agency and information problems are significant (Ben S.... View Details

Keywords: Business Cycles; Capital; Credit; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; System Shocks; Financial Services Industry

Article

Schumpeter's Business Cycles as Business History

Keywords: Business Cycles

1972
Book

A Product Life Cycle for International Trade?

By: L. T. Wells Jr.

Keywords: Product; Trade

July 1974
Article

International Trade: The Product Life Cycle Approach

By: Louis T Wells Jr

Keywords: Global Range; Trade; Product

May 2005
Article

Break Free from the Product Life Cycle

By: Youngme Moon

Keywords: Product; Business Cycles