Publications

Purchase

April 2023
Article

Are Intermediary Constraints Priced?

By: Wenxin Du, Benjamin Hebert and Amy Wang Huber

Violations of no-arbitrage conditions measure the shadow cost of intermediary constraints. Intermediary asset pricing and intertemporal hedging together imply that the risk of these constraints tightening is priced. We describe a “forward CIP trading strategy” that... View Details

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; International Finance

Purchase

2023
Article

Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules

By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li

The increasing availability of individual-level data has led to numerous applications of individualized (or personalized) treatment rules (ITRs). Policy makers often wish to empirically evaluate ITRs and compare their relative performance before implementing them in a... View Details

Keywords: Causal Inference; Heterogeneous Treatment Effects; Precision Medicine; Uplift Modeling; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning

2020
Working Paper

Reverse Information Sharing: Reducing Costs in Supply Chains with Yield Uncertainty

By: Pavithra Harsha, Ashish Jagmohan, Retsef Levi, Elisabeth Paulson and Georgia Perakis

Supply uncertainty in produce supply chains presents major challenges to retailers. Supply shortages create frequent disruptions in terms of promised delivery times, quantity and quality delivered. To alleviate these challenges, dual sourcing--a strategy in which... View Details

Keywords: Information Sharing; Yield Uncertainty; Ration Gaming; Blockchain; Supply Chain; Risk and Uncertainty

SSRN

2013
Working Paper

Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Banking Regulation and the Low Risk Anomaly

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

Minimum capital requirements are a central tool of banking regulation. Setting them balances a number of factors, including any effects on the cost of capital and in turn the rates available to borrowers. Standard theory predicts that, in perfect and efficient capital... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Cost of Capital; Capital Markets; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry; United States

Fall 2012
Article

Innovation Strategy and Entry Deterrence

By: Ozge Turut and Elie Ofek

We model an incumbent's decision to pursue radical or incremental innovation when facing a rival entrant. The radical innovation may yield lucrative financial returns but entails significant technological and market-related uncertainties. It is also particularly... View Details

Keywords: Competition; Innovation Strategy; Risk and Uncertainty; Markets; Mathematical Methods

June 2012
Article

Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-Section of Stocks

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like stocks: stocks of large, mature, low-volatility, profitable, dividend-paying firms that are neither high growth nor distressed. Variables derived from the yield curve that are already known to predict returns on... View Details

Keywords: Relationships; Bonds; Stocks; Investment Return; Cash Flow; Quality; Risk and Uncertainty; Forecasting and Prediction; Profit

January – March 2012
Article

Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

By: Luis M. Viceira

This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on... View Details

Keywords: Bonds; Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Interest Rates; Inflation and Deflation; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; Currency Exchange Rate; Cash Flow; Stocks

2013
Working Paper

Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence... View Details

Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Term Structure; Real Interest Rate Risk; Inflation Risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States

SSRN

September 2008
Article

Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification

By: Samuel G. Hanson, M. Hashem Pesaran and Til Schuermann

This paper examines the impact of neglected heterogeneity on credit risk. We show that neglecting heterogeneity in firm returns and/or default thresholds leads to under estimation of expected losses (EL), and its effect on portfolio risk is ambiguous. Once EL is... View Details

Keywords: Volatility; Credit; Investment Return; Outcome or Result; Risk and Uncertainty; Loss; Diversification; Complexity; United States

June 2008
Article

'Thar' She Blows: Can Bubbles Be Rekindled with Experienced Subjects?

By: Reshmaan Hussam, David Porter and Vernon Smith

We report 28 new experiment sessions consisting of up to three experience levels to examine the robustness of learning and “error” elimination among participants in a laboratory asset market and its effect on price bubbles. Our answer to the title question is: “yes.”... View Details

Keywords: Experimental Economics; Asset Markets; Bubbles; Price Bubble; Financial Markets

April 2006 (Revised April 2007)
Case

Endeca Technologies: New Growth Opportunities

By: Paul A. Gompers and Kristin Perry

Steve Papa, CEO of Endeca Technologies, must decide whether to expand into a new market with a new application of his company's technology. Endeca has experienced significant success with its information access software in the online retail industry, and in September... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Market Entry and Exit; Production; Organizational Structure; Partners and Partnerships; Opportunities; Expansion; Internet and the Web; Applications and Software; Information Technology Industry