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- All HBS Web
(523)
- News (82)
- Research (380)
- Events (1)
- Multimedia (3)
- Faculty Publications (228)
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- Research Summary
Firm and aggregate volatility
US publicly traded companies have become more volatile over the postwar period. This trend has been the result of increased competition in product markets through deregulation, through more intensive innovation activity, and through easier access to capital markets.... View Details
- Research Summary
Time-Varying Volatility Risk Premia
This paper provides evidence for the existence of time-varying volatility risk premia. In doing so, it examines the evolution of the implied volatility bias in the S&P 100 from 1986-2006. Additionally, the paper proves three new results regarding the limiting... View Details
- Research Summary
The Connection Between Volatility and Leverage
Professor Siriwardane has co-developed a new econometric model that captures the link between equity volatility and financial leverage, driven by the desire to incorporate the record levels of both leverage and volatility that characterized the 2008 financial crisis... View Details
- Article
Diverging Trends in Macro and Micro Volatility
By: Diego Comin and Sunil Mulani
This paper documents the diverging trends in volatility of the growth rate of sales at the aggregate and firm level. We establish that the upward trend in micro volatility is not simply driven by a compositional bias in the sample studied. We argue that this new fact... View Details
Comin, Diego, and Sunil Mulani. "Diverging Trends in Macro and Micro Volatility." Review of Economics and Statistics 88, no. 2 (May 2006).
- 2023
- Working Paper
Investor Preferences, Security Design and Volatility Prices
By: Claire Célérier, Gordon Liao and Boris Vallée
This paper investigates the effects of the issuance of retail products with non-linear payoffs on option prices. For a given underlying asset, when the outstanding volume of products embedding a short-put position increases, implied volatility at the corresponding... View Details
Keywords: Security Design; Dividend; Options; Structured Products; Market Segmentation; Financial Instruments; Design; Volatility; Markets; Segmentation
Célérier, Claire, Gordon Liao, and Boris Vallée. "Investor Preferences, Security Design and Volatility Prices." Working Paper, 2023.
- June 2017 (Revised February 2019)
- Case
Investing in Volatility at Evanston Capital Management
By: Adi Sunderam, Luis Viceira and Zhihan Ma
Sunderam, Adi, Luis Viceira, and Zhihan Ma. "Investing in Volatility at Evanston Capital Management." Harvard Business School Case 217-089, June 2017. (Revised February 2019.)
- 1987
- Working Paper
Tests of Excess Forecast Volatility in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets
By: K. A. Froot
Simple regression tests that have power against the alternatives that asset prices and expected future asset returns are excessively volatile are developed and performed for the foreign exchange and stock markets. These tests have a number of advantages over... View Details
- November 2009
- Journal Article
A Theory of Growth and Volatility at the Aggregate and Firm Level
By: Diego A. Comin and Sunil Mulani
This paper presents an endogenous growth model that explains the evolution of the first and second moments of productivity growth at the aggregate and firm level during the post-war period. Growth is driven by the development of both (i) idiosyncratic R&D innovations... View Details
Keywords: Volatility; Microeconomics; Innovation and Invention; Growth and Development Strategy; Resource Allocation; Performance Productivity; Mathematical Methods; Research and Development
Comin, Diego A., and Sunil Mulani. "A Theory of Growth and Volatility at the Aggregate and Firm Level." Journal of Monetary Economics 56, no. 8 (November 2009): 1023–1042.
- December 24, 2018
- Editorial
Stock-Market Volatility Can Be Good for the Economy
By: Amar Bhidé
Bhidé, Amar. "Stock-Market Volatility Can Be Good for the Economy." Wall Street Journal (December 24, 2018).
- Research Summary
Corporate Bond Pricing and Different Sources of Asset Return Volatility (with George Chacko and Jens Hilscher)
This paper presents a pricing model for defaultable bonds. Default is defined by a cash flow, not value, covenant. The cash flow (total distributions) yield is stochastic. We find that different sources of volatility, cash flow versus discount rate news, affect... View Details
- October 2011 (Revised August 2017)
- Case
Veracity Worldwide in Syria: Assessing Political Risk in a Volatile Environment
By: Aldo Musacchio and Sophus A. Reinert
Musacchio, Aldo, and Sophus A. Reinert. "Veracity Worldwide in Syria: Assessing Political Risk in a Volatile Environment." Harvard Business School Case 712-009, October 2011. (Revised August 2017.)
- 1995
- Working Paper
The Informational Role of Asset Prices: The Case of Implied Volatility
By: Zvi Bodie and Robert C. Merton
- April 12, 2023
- Article
Using AI to Adjust Your Marketing and Sales in a Volatile World
By: Das Narayandas and Arijit Sengupta
Why are some firms better and faster than others at adapting their use of customer data to respond to changing or uncertain marketing conditions? A common thread across faster-acting firms is the use of AI models to predict outcomes at various stages of the customer... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Consumer Behavior; Technology Adoption; Competitive Advantage
Narayandas, Das, and Arijit Sengupta. "Using AI to Adjust Your Marketing and Sales in a Volatile World." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (April 12, 2023).
- Forthcoming
- Chapter
Oil, Macroeconomic Volatility and Crime in the Determination of Beliefs in Venezuela
By: Rafael Di Tella, Javier Donna and Robert MacCulloch
Book Abstract: At the beginning of the twentieth century Venezuela had one of the poorest economies in Latin America, but by 1970 it had become the richest country in the region and one of the twenty richest countries in the world, ahead of countries such as Greece,... View Details
Keywords: Macroeconomics; Volatility; Crime and Corruption; Values and Beliefs; Non-Renewable Energy; Energy Industry; Venezuela
Di Tella, Rafael, Javier Donna, and Robert MacCulloch. "Oil, Macroeconomic Volatility and Crime in the Determination of Beliefs in Venezuela." Chap. 14 in Venezuela Before Chávez: Anatomy of an Economic Collapse, edited by Ricardo Hausmann and Francisco Rodriguez. Penn State University Press, 2014.
- 1995
- Chapter
The Informational Role of Asset Prices: The Case of Implied Volatility
By: Zvi Bodie and Robert C. Merton
Bodie, Zvi, and Robert C. Merton. "The Informational Role of Asset Prices: The Case of Implied Volatility." Chap. 6 in The Global Financial System: A Functional Perspective, by D. B. Crane, K. A. Froot, Scott P. Mason, André Perold, R. C. Merton, Z. Bodie, E. R. Sirri, and P. Tufano, 197–224. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1995.
- Article
Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets
By: George Chacko and Luis M. Viceira
Chacko, George, and Luis M. Viceira. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets." Review of Financial Studies 18, no. 4 (Winter 2005).
- March–April 2014
- Article
The Low-Risk Anomaly: A Decomposition into Micro and Macro Effects
By: Malcolm Baker, Brendan Bradley and Ryan Taliaferro
Low beta stocks have offered a combination of low risk and high returns. We decompose the anomaly into micro and macro components. The micro component comes from the selection of low beta stocks. The macro component comes from the selection of low beta countries or... View Details
Keywords: Low Volatility; Beta; Portfolio Construction; Market Efficiency; Capital Asset Pricing Model; Asset Management
Baker, Malcolm, Brendan Bradley, and Ryan Taliaferro. "The Low-Risk Anomaly: A Decomposition into Micro and Macro Effects." Financial Analysts Journal 70, no. 2 (March–April 2014): 43–58.
- 2017
- Working Paper
Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management
By: Luke C.D. Stein and Charles C.Y. Wang
In the presence of managerial short-termism and asymmetric information about skill and effort provision, firms may opportunistically shift earnings from uncertain to more certain times. We document empirically that when financial markets are less certain about a firm's... View Details
Keywords: Discretionary Accruals; Uncertainty; Implied Volatility; Earnings Response Coefficient; Risk and Uncertainty; Earnings Management; Financial Markets
Stein, Luke C.D., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-103, March 2016. (Revised April 2017.)
- 2013
- Working Paper
Asset Price Dynamics with Limited Attention
By: Mark Seasholes, Terrence Hendershott, Sunny X. Li and Albert J. Menkveld
This paper studies the role that limited attention and inefficient risk sharing play in stock price deviations from the efficient prices at horizons from one day to one month. We expand the Due (2010) slow-moving capital model to analyze multiple groups of investors... View Details
Keywords: Transitory Volatility; Limited Attention; Individuals; Market Makers; Asset Pricing; Financial Markets; Volatility
Seasholes, Mark, Terrence Hendershott, Sunny X. Li, and Albert J. Menkveld. "Asset Price Dynamics with Limited Attention." Working Paper, November 2013. (2nd round at the Journal of Finance.)
- 2000
- Other Unpublished Work
New Trading Practices and the Short-run Predictability of the S&P 500: Market Volatility and Investor Confidence, Report to the Board of Directors of the New York Stock Exchange, Inc.
By: André Perold