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  • Article

Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem

By: Victor Richmond R. Jose, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
We introduce an alternative to the popular linear opinion pool for combining individual probability forecasts. One of the well-known problems with the linear opinion pool is that it can be poorly calibrated. It tends toward underconfidence as the crowd's diversity... View Details
Keywords: Trimmed Opinion Pools; Forecasting and Prediction
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  • Article

Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?

By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Robert L. Winkler
We consider two ways to aggregate expert opinions using simple averages: averaging probabilities and averaging quantiles. We examine analytical properties of these forecasts and compare their ability to harness the wisdom of the crowd. In terms of location, the two... View Details
Keywords: Probability Forecasts; Quantile Forecasts; Expert Combination; Linear Opinion Pooling; Forecasting and Prediction
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  • 2018
  • Working Paper

Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts: When Is It Appropriate to Extremize or Anti-Extremize?

By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond R. Jose and Robert L. Winkler
Many organizations face critical decisions that rely on forecasts of binary events. In these situations, organizations often gather forecasts from multiple experts or models and average those forecasts to produce a single aggregate forecast. Because the average... View Details
Keywords: Forecast Aggregation; Linear Opinion Pool; Generalized Additive Model; Generalized Linear Model; Stacking.; Forecasting and Prediction
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  • Article

Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts

By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, V.R.R. Jose and K. C. Lichtendahl
Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about... View Details
Keywords: Decision Analysis; Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Data and Data Sets
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  • 24 Apr 2007
  • First Look

First Look: April 24, 2007

Luce's magazines often resonated with readers, allowing him to quickly trump competitors such as Newsweek, Forbes, The New Yorker, Esquire, and National Geographic. Yet Luce was also criticized for occasionally using his imaginative style to inject his View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 2024
  • Working Paper

Modest Victims: Victims Who Decline to Broadcast Their Victimization Are Seen As Morally Virtuous

By: Nathan Dhaliwal, Jillian J. Jordan and Pat Barclay
What do people think of victims who conceal their victimhood? We propose that the decision to not broadcast that one has been victimized serves as a costly act of modesty—in doing so, one is potentially forgoing social support and compensation from one’s community. We... View Details
Keywords: Public Opinion; Mathematical Methods; Communication; Perception; Reputation
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  • 25 Jul 2017
  • First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas: July 25, 2017

individual ethics and as a specific version of a broader argument made for centuries by theorists from Hume to Hayek. I also provide evidence of an example in which real-world policy judgments are consistent with this theoretical argument. Results from a novel U.S.... View Details
Keywords: Carmen Nobel
  • 01 Nov 2022
  • What Do You Think?

Why Aren’t Business Leaders More Vocal About Immigration Policy?

gone on for decades as a giant skimming effect that benefits the US while reducing the talent pool of countries offering the least opportunity. Few groups have been as maligned or as poorly portrayed as our immigrant pool. This has been... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
  • 18 Mar 2016
  • Blog Post

What is an IFC?

partners in a relatively short timeframe. However, the IFC had more of a cohort experience in that all of the teams, although working with different clients, had significant overlap in the problems we were working on.  For example, my team was working on transportation... View Details
  • Web

The Gift of Global Talent

Bill argues, is the world’s most precious resource. Featured Article Navigating Talent Hotspots William R. Kerr SEP-OCT 2018 | HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW How can companies most effectively harness the benefits of these urban pools of... View Details
  • 19 Apr 2010
  • Research & Ideas

The History of Beauty

business than others, as the obstacles to entry for female entrepreneurs have been and continue to be higher for women than men in other industries, like construction, for example. So there is a lot of female entrepreneurial talent View Details
Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Beauty & Cosmetics
  • Web

Past Issues - Alumni

Table of Contents December 2005 One-on-One with Peter Cuneo Vice Chairman, Marvel Entertainment, Inc. Trillion-Dollar Fixer-Upper A Matter of Opinion Baker’s back After a two-year renovation and expansion, Baker Library is open for... View Details
  • Profile

Jay Bhandari

of his selection tests, where dozens of candidates had to swim together across a pool at night without visibility. Short on breath and under time pressure, many would attempt to exit the pool as quickly as... View Details
  • 11 Jul 2016
  • HBS Case

Neurodiversity: The Benefits of Recruiting Employees with Cognitive Disabilities

There’s a new frontier in diversity programs focused not on race or gender but on cognitive ability. The growing interest in neurodiversity—hiring people with cognitive disabilities like Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD)—is motivated by companies looking to tap into a... View Details
Keywords: by Roberta Holland; Technology
  • 11 Oct 2006
  • What Do You Think?

How Do We Respond to the “Dependency Ratio” Dilemma?

Summing Up Dependency ratios are useful as general indicators of future economic and social health. But they must be managed downward on both a micro and macro basis, in the opinion of the majority of respondents to this month's column.... View Details
Keywords: by Jim Heskett
  • 11 May 2009
  • Research & Ideas

The IT Leader’s Hero Quest

with a diverse set of companies. "In this way, we could pool all this knowledge and distill it down to the essential principles that CIOs can generally apply, regardless of industry or size of firm, while describing 'realistic' and... View Details
Keywords: by Martha Lagace
  • 01 Nov 2019
  • What Do You Think?

Should Non-Compete Clauses Be Abolished?

violation of a non-compete? That’s the question raised by GYurieff, who said: “The difference in knowledge an individual brings into an organization and the knowledge this individual may take out of the organization—how is it measured? How is valued and by whom?” The... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
  • Profile

Daniel Sheyner

destination," says Sheyner. And Sheyner estimates that the industry counts only about 20,000 strong nationwide and hires just a couple thousand annually from a pool of tens of thousands, meaning that firms don't need to do much... View Details
Keywords: Venture Capital / Private Equity; Financial Services; Investment Management / Hedge Fund
  • 31 Jul 2014
  • News

Making Private Equity Public Knowledge

says Sheyner. And Sheyner estimates that the industry counts only about 20,000 strong nationwide and hires just a couple thousand annually from a pool of tens of thousands, meaning that firms don't need to do much recruiting outside of... View Details
Keywords: Dan Morrell
  • 08 Feb 2018
  • Op-Ed

What’s Missing From the Debate About Trump’s Tax Plan

plan, both consistent with a long tradition from the right of center. Once these are understood, forming an informed opinion on the plan—which will be an important task for Americans in the coming years—becomes possible. The view from tax... View Details
Keywords: by Matthew Weinzierl