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    • All HBS Web  (3,160)
      • Faculty Publications  (597)

      Stock Market ExpectationsRemove Stock Market Expectations →

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      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Heterogeneous Beliefs and Stock Market Fluctuations

      By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand
      This paper examines the role of heterogeneous investor beliefs in explaining stock market puzzles. Using survey data, we show that individual investors and investment professionals, such as equity analysts and strategists, form distinct beliefs. These groups rely on... View Details
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      McCarthy, Odhrain, and Sebastian Hillenbrand. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Stock Market Fluctuations." Working Paper, June 2025. (WFA Brattle Group Ph.D. Award for Outstanding Research.)
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Cash Flow Volatility, Return Predictability and Stock Price Decompositions: Why You Should Scale Prices by Trend Cash Flows

      By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
      We address two inconvenient facts in asset pricing: (i) valuation ratios are often more related to future cash flows than to returns, and (ii) they mostly fail to predict returns. We show that these issues arise because stock prices are scaled by cash flows that... View Details
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      Hillenbrand, Sebastian, and Odhrain McCarthy. "Cash Flow Volatility, Return Predictability and Stock Price Decompositions: Why You Should Scale Prices by Trend Cash Flows." Working Paper, June 2025.
      • June 2025
      • Case

      TfL Pension Fund and the 2022 Gilt Market Crisis

      By: Emil N. Siriwardane, Vincent Dessain, Emer Moloney and Carlota Moniz
      On September 27, 2022, Padmesh Shukla, CIO of the Transport for London (TfL) Pension Fund, was keeping a careful eye on the turmoil in the U.K. sovereign bond (or gilt) market. When the new government announced the largest tax cuts the U.K. had seen in half a century,... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics; Assets; Asset Management; Borrowing and Debt; Corporate Finance; Capital Markets; Equity; Public Equity; Private Equity; Financial Liquidity; Financial Instruments; Debt Securities; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Bonds; Stocks; Financial Strategy; Interest Rates; Governance; Governing and Advisory Boards; Crisis Management; Resource Allocation; Investment; Financial Services Industry; United Kingdom; England; London; Europe
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      Siriwardane, Emil N., Vincent Dessain, Emer Moloney, and Carlota Moniz. "TfL Pension Fund and the 2022 Gilt Market Crisis." Harvard Business School Case 225-098, June 2025.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Street Earnings: Implications for Asset Pricing

      By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
      To address the excess volatility puzzle – the excessive movements in stock prices – researchers often study movements in valuation ratios. However, we demonstrate that movements in valuation ratios based on fundamental measures with high transitory volatility, such as... View Details
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      Hillenbrand, Sebastian, and Odhrain McCarthy. "Street Earnings: Implications for Asset Pricing." Working Paper, June 2025.
      • June 2025
      • Article

      Passive Ownership and Price Informativeness

      By: Marco Sammon
      I show that passive ownership negatively affects the degree to which stock prices anticipate earnings announcements. Estimates across several research designs imply that the rise in passive ownership over the last 30 years has caused the amount of information... View Details
      Keywords: Passive Ownership; ETFs; Market Efficiency; Price; Investment Funds; Stocks; Communication
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      Sammon, Marco. "Passive Ownership and Price Informativeness." Management Science 71, no. 6 (June 2025): 4582–4598.
      • June 2025
      • Case

      Vail Resorts: Responding to Activist Pressure (A)

      By: Benjamin C. Esty and Edward A. Meyer
      On January 27, 2025, the head of a relatively small hedge fund named Late Apex Partners sent a highly critical letter to the board of directors of Vail Resorts, the world’s largest ski resort operator. In his letter, and the 88-slide presentation that accompanied his... View Details
      Keywords: Corporate Finance; Capital Budgeting; Corporate Governance; Competitive Advantage; Competitive Strategy; Leading Change; Valuation; Investment Activism; Climate Change; Management Succession; Financial Management; Risk Management; Business and Shareholder Relations; Sports Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Travel Industry; United States; Australia; Canada
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      Esty, Benjamin C., and Edward A. Meyer. "Vail Resorts: Responding to Activist Pressure (A)." Harvard Business School Case 225-082, June 2025.
      • Working Paper

      Index Rebalancing and Stock Market Composition: Do Indexes Time the Market?

      By: Marco Sammon and John J. Shim
      Value-weighted indexes must rebalance in response to stock market composition changes, e.g., issuance, buybacks, and IPOs. In doing so, existing index funds implicitly engage in market timing. Index funds’ long-short rebalancing portfolios have a -3.5% annual return... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Funds; Financial Markets; Market Timing; Investment Return
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      Sammon, Marco, and John J. Shim. "Index Rebalancing and Stock Market Composition: Do Indexes Time the Market?" SSRN Working Paper Series, No. 5080459, May 2025.
      • May 2025
      • Case

      'Net Zero in Action': Impact Investing at the McKnight Foundation

      By: Lauren Cohen, Christina R. Wing and Sophia Pan
      Elizabeth McGeveran, Vice President of Investments at the McKnight Foundation, reflected on how to effectively advance the organization’s net-zero strategy. The foundation had committed 10% of its endowment to building a portfolio of impact investments and was among... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Fund; Philanthropy; Charitable Donations; Sustainability; Foundation; Impact Investing; ESG; Family Business; Forecasting and Prediction; Private Sector; Renewable Energy; Social Entrepreneurship; Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability; Green Technology; Financial Strategy; Investment Funds; Investment Portfolio; Institutional Investing; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Mission and Purpose; Private Ownership; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Social Issues; Sustainable Cities; Financial Services Industry; Minnesota; United States
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      Cohen, Lauren, Christina R. Wing, and Sophia Pan. "'Net Zero in Action': Impact Investing at the McKnight Foundation." Harvard Business School Case 225-095, May 2025.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Corporate Actions as Moral Issues

      By: Zwetelina Iliewa, Elisabeth Kempf and Oliver Spalt
      We examine nonpecuniary preferences across a broad set of corporate actions using a representative sample of the U.S. population. Our core findings, based on large-scale online surveys, are that (i) self-reported nonpecuniary concerns are large both for stock market... View Details
      Keywords: Public Opinion; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Moral Sensibility
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      Iliewa, Zwetelina, Elisabeth Kempf, and Oliver Spalt. "Corporate Actions as Moral Issues." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33749, May 2025.
      • 2024
      • Case

      EPCorp: Convincing the C-Suite

      By: Jacob M. Cook
      In EPCorp: Convincing the C-Suite, Shivani Bahl is attempting to sell EPCorp's CEO, Debbie Sullivan, on her ideas for not only a new website upgrade but also a more expansive vision on how data and Generative AI can be used to grow the company. Debbie is understandably... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; E-commerce; Growth and Development Strategy
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      Cook, Jacob M. "EPCorp: Convincing the C-Suite." Harvard Business Publishing Case, 2024. (Quick Case.)
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      The Limits of Insurance Demand and the Growing Protection Gap

      By: Parinitha Sastry, Tess Scharlemann, Ishita Sen and Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva
      In a world with rising risk, how much are U.S. households willing to pay for homeowners insurance, and what does their demand imply for the future of insurance markets? We provide the first estimates of household willingness to pay for homeowners insurance and the... View Details
      Keywords: Climate Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Insurance; Personal Finance; Consumer Behavior; Mortgages
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      Sastry, Parinitha, Tess Scharlemann, Ishita Sen, and Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva. "The Limits of Insurance Demand and the Growing Protection Gap." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-054, February 2025.
      • April 2025
      • Article

      The Disappearing Index Effect

      By: Robin Greenwood and Marco Sammon
      The abnormal return associated with a stock being added to the S&P 500 has fallen from an average of 7.4% in the 1990s to 0.3% over the past decade. This has occurred despite a significant increase in the share of stock market assets linked to the index. A similar... View Details
      Keywords: Stocks; Investment Return; Value
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      Greenwood, Robin, and Marco Sammon. "The Disappearing Index Effect." Journal of Finance 80, no. 2 (April 2025): 657–698.
      • April 2025
      • Article

      The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates

      By: Sebastian Hillenbrand
      In this paper I document a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings fully captures the secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields since 1980. By contrast, yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the... View Details
      Keywords: United States Treasury; Monetary Policy; Yield Curve
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      Hillenbrand, Sebastian. "The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates." Review of Financial Studies 38, no. 4 (April 2025). (Editor's Choice.)
      • March 2025
      • Case

      YouTube: Bidding for NFL Sunday Ticket

      By: Anita Elberse and Crystal Yao
      In December 2022, Erin Teague, a senior director and the global head of sports, movies and shows at YouTube, technology giant Alphabet Inc.’s video- sharing platform, received the news that Sundar Pichai, the chief executive officer of Alphabet and its subsidiary... View Details
      Keywords: General Management; Entertainment; Media; Sports; Marketing; Management; Business Strategy; Bids and Bidding; Sports Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry
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      Elberse, Anita, and Crystal Yao. "YouTube: Bidding for NFL Sunday Ticket." Harvard Business School Case 525-045, March 2025.
      • March 2025 (Revised April 2025)
      • Case

      WallStreetBets: Democratizing Retail Investing

      By: Joseph Pacelli and Alexis Lefort
      In summer 2024, Jaime Rogozinski anticipated the launch of a day-trading eSports event, a vision he had nurtured for years. Rogozinski, the founder of the influential subreddit WallStreetBets (WSB), created the forum in 2012 as a space for retail traders to explore... View Details
      Keywords: Investment; Emerging Markets; Market Participation; Financial Strategy; Lawsuits and Litigation; Social and Collaborative Networks; Financial Markets; Financial Services Industry; United States
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      Pacelli, Joseph, and Alexis Lefort. "WallStreetBets: Democratizing Retail Investing." Harvard Business School Case 125-002, March 2025. (Revised April 2025.)
      • February 2025 (Revised March 2025)
      • Case

      Accounting for Bitcoin at Block

      By: Charles C.Y. Wang, Seil Kim and Sa-Pyung Sean Shin
      Abstract: This case explores Block Inc.'s accounting practices for Bitcoin transactions and their impact on financial reporting. Following a 10% stock price drop after missing revenue estimates in Q3 2024, Block faced scrutiny over its Bitcoin-driven revenue model.... View Details
      Keywords: Cryptocurrency; Bitcoin; Fair Value Accounting; Revenue Recognition; Business Model; Fluctuation; Volatility; Revenue; Standards; Valuation
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      Wang, Charles C.Y., Seil Kim, and Sa-Pyung Sean Shin. "Accounting for Bitcoin at Block." Harvard Business School Case 125-072, February 2025. (Revised March 2025.)
      • February 2025 (Revised May 2025)
      • Case

      Align Partners and SM Entertainment: Korean Shareholder Activism Meets K-Pop (A)

      By: Charles C.Y. Wang and Billy Chan
      For years, institutional investors had experienced very limited success in influencing the management of listed companies through shareholder activist campaigns in Korea. The common practice of circular ownership and public resentment toward foreign shareholder... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Reporting; Public Equity; Stocks; Investment Activism; Music Entertainment; Corporate Governance; Success; Business and Shareholder Relations; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; South Korea
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      Wang, Charles C.Y., and Billy Chan. "Align Partners and SM Entertainment: Korean Shareholder Activism Meets K-Pop (A)." Harvard Business School Case 125-065, February 2025. (Revised May 2025.)
      • February 2025
      • Supplement

      Align Partners and SM Entertainment: Korean Shareholder Activism Meets K-Pop (B)

      By: Charles CY Wang and Billy Chan
      For years, institutional investors had experienced very limited success in influencing the management of listed companies through shareholder activist campaigns in Korea. The common practice of circular ownership and public resentment toward foreign shareholder... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Reporting; Public Equity; Stocks; Investment Activism; Music Entertainment; Corporate Governance; Success; Business and Shareholder Relations; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; South Korea
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      Wang, Charles CY, and Billy Chan. "Align Partners and SM Entertainment: Korean Shareholder Activism Meets K-Pop (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 125-066, February 2025.
      • January 2025 (Revised March 2025)
      • Case

      Creating Value by Splitting Aster: Can One Minus One Equal Two?

      By: V.G. Narayanan and Kairavi Dey
      Aster DM Healthcare (Aster), founded by Dr. Azad Moopen in 1987, is a prominent healthcare conglomerate with operations spanning hospitals, clinics, retail pharmacies, and diagnostic centers across India and the GCC. After its 2018 listing on India’s National Stock... View Details
      Keywords: Corporate Governance; Corporate Accountability; Leadership; Change Management; Mergers and Acquisitions; Restructuring; Negotiation; Valuation; Health Industry; Asia; India; Middle East; United Arab Emirates
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      Narayanan, V.G., and Kairavi Dey. "Creating Value by Splitting Aster: Can One Minus One Equal Two?" Harvard Business School Case 125-069, January 2025. (Revised March 2025.)
      • November–December 2024
      • Article

      Scaling Up Transformational Innovations

      By: Peter Koen, Ananya Sheth, Mike DiPaola and Linda A. Hill
      For large companies operating in mature sectors—such as Procter & Gamble in consumer goods, Apple in consumer electronics, and Adobe in cloud software—driving growth is a perennial challenge. Growth through acquisition is always an option, but companies often quickly... View Details
      Keywords: Growth and Development Strategy; Leadership; Innovation Strategy; Consumer Products Industry
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      Koen, Peter, Ananya Sheth, Mike DiPaola, and Linda A. Hill. "Scaling Up Transformational Innovations." Harvard Business Review 102, no. 6 (November–December 2024): 78–85.
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