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- April 2025
- Article
The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates
In this paper I document a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings fully captures the secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields since 1980. By contrast, yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the... View Details
- September 2017
- Teaching Note
The Productivity Decline: Demographics, Robots, or Globalization?
By: Laura Alfaro and Hayley Pallan
In the early 21st century, there was a noticeable trend of declining productivity growth. Despite the persistent decline in productivity growth, a consensus on its explanation had not been reached. Some of the debate focused on the technicalities of productivity... View Details
- September 2017 (Revised August 2018)
- Case
The Productivity Decline: Demographics, Robots, or Globalization?
By: Laura Alfaro, Hayley Pallan and Sarah Jeong
In the early 21st century, there was a noticeable trend of declining productivity growth. Despite the persistent decline in productivity growth, a consensus on its explanation had not been reached. Some of the debate focused on the technicalities of productivity... View Details
- 2016
- Working Paper
Foreign Competition and Domestic Innovation: Evidence from U.S. Patents
By: David Autor, David Dorn, Gordon H. Hanson, Pian Shu and Gary Pisano
Manufacturing is the locus of U.S. innovation, accounting for more than three quarters of U.S. corporate patents. The rise of import competition from China has represented a major competitive shock to the sector, which in theory could benefit or stifle innovation. In... View Details