Social Inference - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2023
Article

Estimating Causal Peer Influence in Homophilous Social Networks by Inferring Latent Locations.

By: Edward McFowland III and Cosma Rohilla Shalizi

Social influence cannot be identified from purely observational data on social networks, because such influence is generically confounded with latent homophily, that is, with a node’s network partners being informative about the node’s attributes and therefore its... View Details

Keywords: Causal Inference; Homophily; Social Networks; Peer Influence; Social and Collaborative Networks; Power and Influence; Mathematical Methods

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June 2012
Article

Consequence-Cause Matching: Looking to the Consequences of Events to Infer Their Causes

By: Robyn A. LeBoeuf and Michael I. Norton

We show that people non-normatively infer event causes from event consequences. For example, people inferred that a product failure (computer crash) had a large cause (widespread computer virus) if it had a large consequence (job loss), but that the identical failure... View Details

Keywords: Causal Inference; Product; Forecasting and Prediction; Motivation and Incentives; Failure

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April 2023
Article

Inattentive Inference

By: Thomas Graeber

This paper studies how people infer a state of the world from information structures that include additional, payoff-irrelevant states. For example, learning from a customer review about a product’s quality requires accounting for the reviewer’s otherwise irrelevant... View Details

Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Information Types; Behavior; Knowledge Acquisition

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February 1994
Background Note

Causal Inference

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

Discusses what causation is and what one can (and cannot) learn about causation from observational (nonexperimental) data. View Details

Keywords: Decision Making; Analytics and Data Science; Interests

Estimating Causal Peer Influence in Homophilous Social Networks by Inferring Latent Locations

Social influence cannot be identified from purely observational data on social networks, because such influence is generically confounded with latent homophily, that is, with a node’s network partners being informative about the node’s attributes and therefore... View Details

2018
Conference Presentation

Learning to Recognize Objects Provides Category-orthogonal Features for Social Inference and Moral Judgment

By: J. De Freitas, A. Hafri, G. A. Alvarez and D. L. K. Yamins

Article

Motivated Inferences of Price and Quality in Healthcare Decisions

By: Emily Prinsloo, Kate Barasz and Peter A. Ubel

Policy makers have increasingly advocated for healthcare price transparency, whereby prices are made salient before services are rendered. While such policies may empower consumers, they also bring price to the forefront of healthcare choices as never before, with yet... View Details

Keywords: Healthcare; Price Transparency; Health Care and Treatment; Price; Quality; Perception; Consumer Behavior; Decisions; Insurance

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Article

The Social Utility of Feature Creep

By: Debora V. Thompson and Michael I. Norton

Previous research shows that consumers frequently choose products with too many features that they later find difficult to use. Our research shows that this seemingly suboptimal behavior may in fact confer benefits when factoring in the social context of consumption.... View Details

Keywords: Impression Management; Social Influence; Conspicuous Consumption; Signaling; Product Features; Consumer Behavior; Information Technology; Experience and Expertise; Status and Position

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2016
Working Paper

Paying (for) Attention: The Impact of Information Processing Costs on Bayesian Inference

By: Scott Duke Kominers, Xiaosheng Mu and Alexander Peysakhovich

Human information processing is often modeled as costless Bayesian inference. However, research in psychology shows that attention is a computationally costly and potentially limited resource. We study a Bayesian individual for whom computing posterior beliefs is... View Details

Keywords: Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Economics

August 2016
Article

The Role of (Dis)similarity in (Mis)predicting Others' Preferences

By: Kate Barasz, Tami Kim and Leslie K. John

Consumers readily indicate liking options that appear dissimilar—for example, enjoying both rustic lake vacations and chic city vacations or liking both scholarly documentary films and action-packed thrillers. However, when predicting other consumers’ tastes for the... View Details

Keywords: Perceived Similarity; Prediction Error; Preference Prediction; Self-other Difference; Social Inference; Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Forecasting and Prediction

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June 2020
Article

In Generous Offers I Trust: The Effect of First-offer Value on Economically Vulnerable Behaviors

By: M. Jeong, J. Minson and F. Gino

Negotiation scholarship espouses the importance of opening a bargaining situation with an aggressive offer, given the power of first offers to shape concessionary behavior and outcomes. In our research, we identify a surprising consequence to this common prescription.... View Details

Keywords: Attribution; Interpersonal Interaction; Judgment; Social Interaction; Inference; Open Data; Open Materials; Preregistered; Negotiation Offer; Strategy; Behavior; Interpersonal Communication; Trust; Outcome or Result

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10 Nov 2008
Research Event

Social Media Leads the Future of Technology

at scale. In social media, that is very difficult to do. It's very hard to know what people care about with respect to buying things, because you are inferring intent, you're not taking intent directly from... View Details

Keywords: by Martha Lagace

Research Summary

Overview

Christine is interested in how people make decisions about the thoughts, feelings, and actions of others. Her research explores how people use visual cues in a face to infer the inner workings of another's mind. View Details

Keywords: Mind Perception; Interpersonal Communication; Social Psychology

July 2019
Article

I Know Why You Voted for Trump: (Over)inferring Motives Based on Choice

By: Kate Barasz, Tami Kim and Ioannis Evangelidis

People often speculate about why others make the choices they do. This paper investigates how such inferences are formed as a function of what is chosen. Specifically, when observers encounter someone else's choice (e.g., of political candidate), they use the chosen... View Details

Keywords: Self-other Difference; Social Perception; Inference-making; Preferences; Consumer Behavior; Prediction; Prediction Error; Decision Choices and Conditions; Perception; Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction

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2014
Article

Thought Calibration: How Thinking Just the Right Amount Increases One’s Influence and Appeal

By: Daniella Kupor, Zakary L. Tormala, Michael I. Norton and Derek D. Rucker

Previous research suggests that people draw inferences about their attitudes and preferences based on their own thoughtfulness. The current research explores how observing other individuals make decisions more or less thoughtfully can shape perceptions of those... View Details

Keywords: Thoughtfulness; Liking; Social Influence; Decisions; Attitudes; Cognition and Thinking; Power and Influence

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June 2015
Case

The Coca-Cola Company's Case for Creative Transformation

By: Thales S. Teixeira and Elizabeth Anne Watkins

In 2013, the Coca-Cola Company was awarded Creative Marketer of the Year by the Cannes Lions Festival (known as the "Oscar of Advertising") for the first time ever in history and nearly 50 years after the Festival's inception. Just one year before that, Jonathan... View Details

Keywords: Attention Economics; Creating Connections; Digital Marketing; Marketing Innovations; Social Networks; Advertising Content; Networked Brand; Beverage Industry; Coca-Cola; Digital Innovation; Digital Transition; Marketing; Marketing Communications; Innovation Strategy; Social and Collaborative Networks; Advertising; Creativity; Consumer Products Industry

October 2017
Article

The Size of the LGBT Population and the Magnitude of Anti-Gay Sentiment Are Substantially Underestimated

By: Katherine Baldiga Coffman, Lucas C. Coffman and Keith M. Marzilli Ericson

We demonstrate that widely used measures of anti-gay sentiment and the size of the LGBT population are misestimated, likely substantially. In a series of online experiments using a large and diverse but non-representative sample, we compare estimates from the standard... View Details

Keywords: LGBTQ; Social Trends ＆ Culture; Economic Theory; Prejudice; Prejudice and Bias; Diversity; Economics; Demographics

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September 2023
Case

The Meteoric Rise of Skims

By: Ayelet Israeli, Jill Avery and Leonard A. Schlesinger

Since its founding in 2019 by Kim Kardashian and Jens Grede, Skims, a solutions-oriented brand creating the next generation of underwear, loungewear, and shapewear with an eye toward body-type and skin-tone inclusivity, has experienced a meteoric rise. Kardashian, who... View Details

01 Nov 2017
HBS Seminar

Emir Kamenica, Chicago Booth School of Business

Why Tik Tok is Beating YouTube for Eyeball Time

November 2022

Video clips might draw people to TikTok, but its algorithm keeps them watching. John Deighton and Leora Kornfeld explore why TikTok raced ahead of other platforms. First,... View Details

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