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- All HBS Web
(716)
- News (197)
- Research (418)
- Events (1)
- Multimedia (2)
- Faculty Publications (164)
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- Article
Medium-term Business Cycles
By: Diego Comin and Mark Gertler
Over the postwar period, many industrialized countries have experienced significant medium-frequency oscillations between periods of robust growth versus relative stagnation. Conventional business cycle filters, however, tend to sweep these oscillations into the trend.... View Details
Keywords: Business Cycles; Fluctuation; Information Technology; Research and Development; Resource Allocation; Framework; Trends; Performance Efficiency; Performance Productivity
Comin, Diego, and Mark Gertler. "Medium-term Business Cycles." American Economic Review 96, no. 3 (June 2006).
- 2016
- Working Paper
Capital Requirements, Risk Choice, and Liquidity Provision in a Business Cycle Model
By: Juliane Begenau
This paper develops a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium model in which households' preferences for safe and liquid assets constitute a violation of Modigliani and Miller. I show that the scarcity of these coveted assets created by increased bank capital... View Details
Keywords: Capital Requirement; Bank Regulation; Demand For Safe Assets; Business Cycles; Bank Lending; Risk Management; Financial Liquidity; Financing and Loans; Capital; Banks and Banking
Begenau, Juliane. "Capital Requirements, Risk Choice, and Liquidity Provision in a Business Cycle Model." Working Paper. (Revised September 2016.)
- Article
Schumpeter's Business Cycles as Business History
Keywords: Business Cycles
McCraw, Thomas. "Schumpeter's Business Cycles as Business History." Business History Review 80, no. 2 (Summer 2006): 231–261.
- June 2020
- Article
U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles
By: Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina
Foreign banks’ lending to firms in emerging market economies (EMEs) is large and denominated predominantly in U.S. dollars. This creates a direct connection between U.S. monetary policy and EME credit cycles. We estimate that over a typical U.S. monetary easing cycle,... View Details
Keywords: Global Business Cycle; Monetary Policy; Reaching For Yield; Money; Policy; Credit; Emerging Markets
Bräuning, Falk, and Victoria Ivashina. "U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles." Journal of Monetary Economics 112 (June 2020): 57–76.
- 04 Mar 2016
- Working Paper Summaries
Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle
- 29 Sep 2010
- Working Paper Summaries
Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries
- 2021
- Working Paper
Real Credit Cycles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen J. Terry
We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of U.S.... View Details
Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer, and Stephen J. Terry. "Real Credit Cycles." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28416, January 2021.
- 2010
- Working Paper
Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries
By: Diego A. Comin, Norman Loayza, Farooq Pasha and Luis Serven
We build a two-country asymmetric DSGE model with two features: (i) endogenous and slow diffusion of technologies from the developed to the developing country, and (ii) adjustment costs to investment flows. We calibrate the model to match the Mexico-U.S. trade and FDI... View Details
Keywords: Business Cycles; Developing Countries and Economies; Trade; International Finance; Foreign Direct Investment; Mathematical Methods; Mexico; United States
Comin, Diego A., Norman Loayza, Farooq Pasha, and Luis Serven. "Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-029, October 2009. (Revise and resubmit at the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.)
- February 2011
- Module Note
Business Cycles and the New Challenges of Globalization
By: Diego A. Comin
Business Cycles and the New Challenges of Globalization is one of the core modules in Business Government and the International Economy (BGIE), a course for the required curriculum of the Harvard Business School. BGIE teaches the economic, political and historical... View Details
Keywords: Fluctuation; Business Cycles; Trade; Business Education; Curriculum and Courses; Capital; Cash Flow; Globalization; Problems and Challenges; China
Comin, Diego A. "Business Cycles and the New Challenges of Globalization." Harvard Business School Module Note 711-064, February 2011.
- Article
Markups and the Business Cycle
By: J. J. Rotemberg and Michael Woodford
Keywords: Business Cycles
Rotemberg, J. J., and Michael Woodford. "Markups and the Business Cycle." NBER Macroeconomics Annual 6 (1991).
- 05 Nov 2009
- Working Paper Summaries
Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries
- 2016
- Working Paper
Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle
By: David Lopez-Salido, Jeremy C. Stein and Egon Zakrajsek
Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2013, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t – 2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t and t + 1. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions.... View Details
Lopez-Salido, David, Jeremy C. Stein, and Egon Zakrajsek. "Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 21879, January 2016.
- 1997
- Book
Generation to Generation: Life Cycles of the Family Business
By: K. Gersick, J. A. Davis, M. M. Hampton and I. Lansberg
Gersick, K., J. A. Davis, M. M. Hampton, and I. Lansberg. Generation to Generation: Life Cycles of the Family Business. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1997.
- May 2009
- Article
On the Integration of Growth and Business Cycles
By: Diego Comin
Comin, Diego. "On the Integration of Growth and Business Cycles." Empirica 36, no. 2 (May 2009).
- December 2003
- Article
Stochastic Technical Progress, Smooth Trends, and Nearly Distinct Business Cycles
By: Julio J. Rotemberg
Rotemberg, Julio J. "Stochastic Technical Progress, Smooth Trends, and Nearly Distinct Business Cycles." American Economic Review 93, no. 5 (December 2003): 1543–1559.
- August 2020
- Article
Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy
By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam
We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and... View Details
Keywords: Risk-centric Business Cycles; Cross-section Of Equities; Real Risk-free Rate; Real Investment; Financial Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Investment
Pflueger, Carolin E., Emil Siriwardane, and Adi Sunderam. "Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy." Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, no. 3 (August 2020).
- November 1990 (Revised May 2004)
- Case
Mile High Cycles
By: William J. Bruns Jr.
Introduces the concept of cost variances. Looking at a bicycle manufacturer with one product and three departments, the case presents budgeted and actual data for material, labor, and overhead. View Details
Bruns, William J., Jr. "Mile High Cycles." Harvard Business School Case 191-056, November 1990. (Revised May 2004.)
- 2007
- Working Paper
Irving Fisher, Economic Forecasting, and the Myth of the Business Cycle
A premier economist of the twentieth century and a founder of neoclassical thought, Irving Fisher was also an active participant in the field of economic forecasting. Fisher made theoretical contributions to the understanding of economic fluctuations, popularized the... View Details
- 2013
- Working Paper
Adjusting National Accounting for Health: Is the Business Cycle Countercyclical?
By: Mark Egan, Casey B. Mulligan and Tomas J. Philipson
Many national accounts of economic output and prosperity, such as gross domestic product (GDP) or net domestic product (NDP), offer an incomplete picture by ignoring, for example, the value of leisure, home production, and the value of health. Previous discussed... View Details
Egan, Mark, Casey B. Mulligan, and Tomas J. Philipson. "Adjusting National Accounting for Health: Is the Business Cycle Countercyclical?" NBER Working Paper Series, No. 19058, May 2013.
- August 2004
- Article
Capital Controls, Risk and Liberalization Cycles
By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
The paper presents an overlapping-generations model where agents vote on whether to open or close the economy to international capital flows. Political decisions are shaped by the risk over capital and labor returns. In an open economy, the capitalists (old) completely... View Details
Keywords: Business Cycles; Development Economics; Voting; Risk and Uncertainty; Cash Flow; Saving; Investment; Economy; Wages
Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Capital Controls, Risk and Liberalization Cycles." Review of International Economics 12, no. 3 (August 2004): 412–434.