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Publications

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  • All HBS Web  (41)
    • Faculty Publications  (14)

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    • All HBS Web  (41)
      • Faculty Publications  (14)

      Risk AnomalyRemove Risk Anomaly →

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      • April 2024
      • Article

      A Machine Learning Algorithm Predicting Risk of Dilating VUR among Infants with Hydronephrosis Using UTD Classification

      By: Hsin-Hsiao Scott Wang, Michael Lingzhi Li, Dylan Cahill, John Panagides, Tanya Logvinenko, Jeanne Chow and Caleb Nelson
      Backgrounds: Urinary Tract Dilation (UTD) classification has been designed to be a more objective grading system to evaluate antenatal and post-natal UTD. Due to unclear association between UTD classifications to specific anomalies such as vesico-ureteral reflux (VUR),... View Details
      Keywords: Health Disorders; Health Testing and Trials; AI and Machine Learning; Health Industry
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      Wang, Hsin-Hsiao Scott, Michael Lingzhi Li, Dylan Cahill, John Panagides, Tanya Logvinenko, Jeanne Chow, and Caleb Nelson. "A Machine Learning Algorithm Predicting Risk of Dilating VUR among Infants with Hydronephrosis Using UTD Classification." Journal of Pediatric Urology 20, no. 2 (April 2024): 271–278.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Complexity and Time

      By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea
      We provide experimental evidence that core intertemporal choice anomalies -- including extreme short-run impatience, structural estimates of present bias, hyperbolicity and transitivity violations -- are driven by complexity rather than time or risk preferences. First,... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Motivation and Incentives
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      Enke, Benjamin, Thomas Graeber, and Ryan Oprea. "Complexity and Time." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31047, March 2023.
      • January–February 2022
      • Article

      Operational Disruptions, Firm Risk, and Control Systems

      By: William Schmidt and Ananth Raman
      Operational disruptions can impact a firm's risk, which manifests in a host of operational issues, including a higher holding cost for inventory, a higher financing cost for capacity expansion, and a higher perception of the firm's risk among its supply chain partners.... View Details
      Keywords: Operational Risk; Operational Disruptions; Information Asymmetry; Control Systems; Operations; Disruption; Risk Management
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      Schmidt, William, and Ananth Raman. "Operational Disruptions, Firm Risk, and Control Systems." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 24, no. 1 (January–February 2022): 411–429.
      • November–December 2020
      • Article

      The Risks You Can't Foresee: What to Do When There's No Playbook

      By: Robert S. Kaplan, Herman B. Leonard and Anette Mikes
      No matter how good their risk management systems are, companies can’t plan for everything. Some risks are outside people’s realm of experience or so remote no one could have imagined them. Some result from a perfect storm of coinciding breakdowns, and some materialize... View Details
      Keywords: Novel Risks; Risk Management; Crisis Management
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      Kaplan, Robert S., Herman B. Leonard, and Anette Mikes. "The Risks You Can't Foresee: What to Do When There's No Playbook." Harvard Business Review 98, no. 6 (November–December 2020): 40–46.
      • August 2020
      • Article

      Leverage and the Beta Anomaly

      By: Malcolm Baker, Mathias F. Hoeyer and Jeffrey Wurgler
      The well-known weak empirical relationship between beta risk and the cost of equity—the beta anomaly—generates a simple tradeoff theory: As firms lever up, the overall cost of capital falls as leverage increases equity beta, but as debt becomes riskier the marginal... View Details
      Keywords: Risk Anomaly; Leverage; Capital Structure; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Baker, Malcolm, Mathias F. Hoeyer, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Leverage and the Beta Anomaly." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 55, no. 5 (August 2020): 1491–1514.
      • November 2018
      • Case

      Swissgrid: Enterprise Risk Management in a Digital Age

      By: Robert S. Kaplan and Anette Mikes
      Kurt Meyer, chief risk officer of Swissgrid, the Swiss national electricity transmission system operator, reflects on the risk management system he installed after the deregulation and liberalization of the European energy market. With 41 connections to other European... View Details
      Keywords: Enterprise Risk Management; Energy Transmission; Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management; Energy; Energy Industry; Utilities Industry; Switzerland
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      Kaplan, Robert S., and Anette Mikes. "Swissgrid: Enterprise Risk Management in a Digital Age." Harvard Business School Case 119-045, November 2018.
      • 2018
      • Working Paper

      Detecting Anomalies: The Relevance and Power of Standard Asset Pricing Tests

      By: Malcolm Baker, Patrick Luo and Ryan Taliaferro
      The two standard approaches for identifying capital market anomalies are cross-sectional coefficient tests, in the spirit of Fama and MacBeth (1973), and time-series intercept tests, in the spirit of Jensen (1968). A new signal can pass the first test, which we label a... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Management; Anomalies; Portfolio Construction; Transaction Costs; Investment; Management; Asset Pricing; Market Transactions; Cost
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      Baker, Malcolm, Patrick Luo, and Ryan Taliaferro. "Detecting Anomalies: The Relevance and Power of Standard Asset Pricing Tests." Working Paper, July 2018.
      • Fourth Quarter 2017
      • Article

      Optimal Tilts: Combining Persistent Characteristic Portfolios

      By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Terry Burnham
      We examine the optimal weighting of four tilts in U.S. equity markets from 1968 through 2014. We define a “tilt” as a characteristic-based portfolio strategy that requires relatively low annual turnover. This is a continuum, with small size (a very persistent... View Details
      Keywords: Risk Anomaly; Beta; Capital Asset Pricing Model; Factor Investing
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      Baker, Malcolm, Ryan Taliaferro, and Terry Burnham. "Optimal Tilts: Combining Persistent Characteristic Portfolios." Financial Analysts Journal 73, no. 4 (Fourth Quarter 2017): 75–89.
      • 2017
      • Working Paper

      Optimal Tilts: Combining Persistent Characteristic Portfolios

      By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Terry Burnham
      We examine the optimal weighting of four tilts in US equity markets from 1968 through 2014. We define a “tilt” as a characteristic-based portfolio strategy that requires relatively low annual turnover. This is a continuum, with small size, a very persistent... View Details
      Keywords: Risk Anomaly; Beta; Capital Asset Pricing Model; Factor Investing
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      Baker, Malcolm, Ryan Taliaferro, and Terry Burnham. "Optimal Tilts: Combining Persistent Characteristic Portfolios." Working Paper, March 2017.
      • Article

      Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Bank Regulation, Capital Structure and the Low Risk Anomaly

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
      Traditional capital structure theory predicts that reducing banks' leverage reduces the risk and cost of equity but does not change the weighted average cost of capital, and thus the rates for borrowers. We confirm that the equity of better-capitalized banks has lower... View Details
      Keywords: Capital Structure; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Bank Regulation, Capital Structure and the Low Risk Anomaly." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 105, no. 5 (May 2015): 315–320.
      • March–April 2014
      • Article

      The Low-Risk Anomaly: A Decomposition into Micro and Macro Effects

      By: Malcolm Baker, Brendan Bradley and Ryan Taliaferro
      Low beta stocks have offered a combination of low risk and high returns. We decompose the anomaly into micro and macro components. The micro component comes from the selection of low beta stocks. The macro component comes from the selection of low beta countries or... View Details
      Keywords: Low Volatility; Beta; Portfolio Construction; Market Efficiency; Capital Asset Pricing Model; Asset Management
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      Baker, Malcolm, Brendan Bradley, and Ryan Taliaferro. "The Low-Risk Anomaly: A Decomposition into Micro and Macro Effects." Financial Analysts Journal 70, no. 2 (March–April 2014): 43–58.
      • 2013
      • Working Paper

      Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Banking Regulation and the Low Risk Anomaly

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
      Minimum capital requirements are a central tool of banking regulation. Setting them balances a number of factors, including any effects on the cost of capital and in turn the rates available to borrowers. Standard theory predicts that, in perfect and efficient capital... View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Cost of Capital; Capital Markets; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry; United States
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Banking Regulation and the Low Risk Anomaly." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 19018, May 2013.
      • January – February 2011
      • Article

      Benchmarks as Limits to Arbitrage: Understanding the Low-Volatility Anomaly

      By: Malcolm Baker, Brendan Bradley and Jeffrey Wurgler
      Contrary to basic finance principles, high-beta and high-volatility stocks have long underperformed low-beta and low-volatility stocks. This anomaly may be partly explained by the fact that the typical institutional investor's mandate to beat a fixed benchmark... View Details
      Keywords: Volatility; Stocks; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Risk Management; Performance Expectations
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      Baker, Malcolm, Brendan Bradley, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Benchmarks as Limits to Arbitrage: Understanding the Low-Volatility Anomaly." Financial Analysts Journal 67, no. 1 (January–February 2011).
      • 2010
      • Chapter

      Understanding and Coping with the Increasing Risk of System-Level Accidents

      By: Dutch Leonard and Arnold M. Howitt
      The world has seen a number of recent events in which major systems came to a standstill, not from one cause alone but from the interaction of a combination of causes. System-level accidents occur when anomalies or errors in different parts of an interconnected system... View Details
      Keywords: Economics; Globalization; Risk Management; Boundaries; System Shocks
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      Leonard, Dutch, and Arnold M. Howitt. "Understanding and Coping with the Increasing Risk of System-Level Accidents." In Integrative Risk Management: Advanced Disaster Recovery, edited by Simon Woodward. Zurich, Switzerland: Swiss Re, Centre for Global Dialogue, 2010.
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