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Publications
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- 2015
- Working Paper
The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications
By: Emil Siriwardane
I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details
- December 2010
- Article
Organising Response to Extreme Emergencies: The Victorian Bushfires of 2009
By: Dutch Leonard and Arnold M. Howitt
How can people and organisations best respond to emergency events that are significantly beyond the boundaries of what they had generally anticipated, expected, prepared for-or even imagined? What forms of organisations are likely to be best able to cope with such... View Details
- Research Summary
Rare Consumption Disasters
Another defining feature of financial crises is consumption disasters, or large drops in aggregate consumption. Rather than taking the standard approach of seeking implications of such rare disasters for asset pricing in consumption data, Professor Siriwardane asks... View Details