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Publications

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  • 2018
  • Working Paper

Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing.

By: Xiaojia Guo, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
We introduce an exponential smoothing model that a manager can use to forecast the demand of a new product or service. The model has five features that make it suitable for accurately forecasting product life cycles at scale. First, the trend in our model follows the... View Details
Keywords: New Product Development; Demand Forecasting; Product Adoption; Innovation Diffusion; Product Development; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Adoption
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  • 17 Oct 2018
  • Working Paper Summaries

Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing

Keywords: by Xiaojia Guo, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
  • Article

Quantile Evaluation, Sensitivity to Bracketing, and Sharing Business Payoffs

By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, K. C. Lichtendahl, V.R.R. Jose and R.L. Winkler
From forecasting competitions to conditional value-at-risk requirements, the use of multiple quantile assessments is growing in practice. To evaluate them, we use a rule from the general class of proper scoring rules for a forecaster’s multiple quantiles of a single... View Details
Keywords: Forecast; Aggregation; Operations; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods
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  • 2018
  • Working Paper

Forecasting Airport Transfer Passenger Flow Using Real-Time Data and Machine Learning

By: Xiaojia Guo, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Bert De Reyck
Problem definition: In collaboration with Heathrow Airport, we develop a predictive system that generates quantile forecasts of transfer passengers’ connection times. Sampling from the distribution of individual passengers’ connection times, the system also produces... View Details
Keywords: Quantile Forecasts; Regression Tree; Copula; Passenger Flow Management; Data-driven Operations; Forecasting and Prediction; Data and Data Sets
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  • Article

Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?

By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Robert L. Winkler
We consider two ways to aggregate expert opinions using simple averages: averaging probabilities and averaging quantiles. We examine analytical properties of these forecasts and compare their ability to harness the wisdom of the crowd. In terms of location, the two... View Details
Keywords: Probability Forecasts; Quantile Forecasts; Expert Combination; Linear Opinion Pooling; Forecasting and Prediction
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  • 23 Oct 2018
  • First Look

New Research and Ideas, October 23, 2018

Data and Machine Learning By: Guo, Xiaojia, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Bert De Reyck Abstract—Problem definition: In collaboration with Heathrow Airport, we develop a predictive system that generates quantile View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
  • 16 Oct 2018
  • First Look

New Research and Ideas, October 16, 2018

methods, such as multiple-case inductive studies and traditional methods of causal inference. Download working paper: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=55043 Quantile Forecasts of Product Life... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
  • 10 Dec 2013
  • First Look

First Look: December 10

this connection works primarily through lower employment growth of start-ups in cities that are closer to mines. These effects hold in cold and warm regions alike and in industries that are not directly related to mining, such as trade, finance, and services. We use... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 06 Jun 2017
  • First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas: June 6, 2017

Further, we examine the causal impact of homophily on team performance. Homophily in ethnicity increases team performance by lifting teams in bottom quantiles to median performance quantiles, but it does not increase the chance of being... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 15 Jan 2013
  • First Look

First Look: January 15

improved forecast accuracy, the value of their research about the spun-off subsidiaries is more limited. For both diversified firms and their spun-off subsidiaries, analysts' research is more valuable when information asymmetry between... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne