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- 2018
- Working Paper
Diagnostic Bubbles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and... View Details
Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer. "Diagnostic Bubbles." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 25399, December 2018.
- September 2021
- Article
Diagnostic Bubbles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and... View Details
Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer. "Diagnostic Bubbles." Journal of Financial Economics 141, no. 3 (September 2021).
- August 2018
- Article
Extrapolation and Bubbles
By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer
We present an extrapolative model of bubbles. In the model, many investors form their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals: an average of the asset’s past price changes and the asset’s degree of overvaluation. The two signals are in conflict, and investors... View Details
Barberis, Nicholas, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin, and Andrei Shleifer. "Extrapolation and Bubbles." Journal of Financial Economics 129, no. 2 (August 2018): 203–227.
- August 2009
- Article
Inexperienced Investors and Bubbles
By: Robin Greenwood and Stefan Nagel
We use mutual fund manager data from the technology bubble to examine the hypothesis that inexperienced investors play a role in the formation of asset price bubbles. Using age as a proxy for managers' investment experience, we find that around the peak of the... View Details
Keywords: Asset Price Bubbles; Investment Experience; Investor Age; Trend Chasing; Investment; Experience and Expertise; Age; Behavioral Finance; Price Bubble; Information Technology; Stocks
Greenwood, Robin, and Stefan Nagel. "Inexperienced Investors and Bubbles." Journal of Financial Economics 93, no. 2 (August 2009): 239–258. (formerly NBER Working Paper No. 14111, June 2008.)
- January 2019
- Article
Bubbles for Fama
By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You
We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio... View Details
Keywords: Bubble; Market Efficiency; Predictability; Price Bubble; Stocks; Price; Forecasting and Prediction
Greenwood, Robin, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You. "Bubbles for Fama." Journal of Financial Economics 131, no. 1 (January 2019): 20–43. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- June 2008
- Article
'Thar' She Blows: Can Bubbles Be Rekindled with Experienced Subjects?
By: Reshmaan Hussam, David Porter and Vernon Smith
We report 28 new experiment sessions consisting of up to three experience levels to examine the robustness of learning and “error” elimination among participants in a laboratory asset market and its effect on price bubbles. Our answer to the title question is: “yes.”... View Details
Hussam, Reshmaan, David Porter, and Vernon Smith. "'Thar' She Blows: Can Bubbles Be Rekindled with Experienced Subjects?" American Economic Review 98, no. 3 (June 2008): 924–937.
- 18 Feb 2019
- Working Paper Summaries
Diagnostic Bubbles
- August 2007 (Revised June 2020)
- Case
Trouble with a Bubble
By: Tom Nicholas
Examines technology, firm performance, and the stock market during the 1929 Great Crash and the Great Depression of the 1930s. The 1920s was an extraordinary period of technological progress marked by a strong run-up in stock market prices. Firms invested heavily in... View Details
Keywords: Bubble; Stock Market; Great Depression; Irving Fisher; Information Technology; Organizational Change and Adaptation; History; Financial Markets; Performance; Labor and Management Relations; Equity; Financial Crisis; Innovation and Invention; United States
Nicholas, Tom. "Trouble with a Bubble." Harvard Business School Case 808-067, August 2007. (Revised June 2020.)
- 02 Mar 2016
- Working Paper Summaries
Extrapolation and Bubbles
- 20 Mar 2017
- Working Paper Summaries
Bubbles for Fama
- 2008
- Working Paper
Inexperienced Investors and Bubbles
By: Robin Greenwood and Stefan Nagel
We use mutual fund manager data from the technology bubble to examine the hypothesis that inexperienced investors play a role in the formation of asset price bubbles. Using age as a proxy for managers' investment experience, we find that around the peak of the... View Details
Keywords: Investment; Stocks; Information Technology; Price Bubble; Asset Management; Experience and Expertise
Greenwood, Robin, and Stefan Nagel. "Inexperienced Investors and Bubbles." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 14111, June 2008.
- November 2001 (Revised January 2002)
- Case
Monster.com: Success Beyond the Bubble
In 2001, Monster.com was an Internet site that, among other things, connected individuals seeking jobs with organizations wanting to hire. Its substitutes included help wanted classified advertising in newspapers. Monster was one of the few Internet companies that had... View Details
Keywords: Internet and the Web; Business Growth and Maturation; Service Operations; Service Delivery; Price Bubble; Growth and Development Strategy; Employment Industry
Hallowell, Roger H., and Cate Reavis. "Monster.com: Success Beyond the Bubble." Harvard Business School Case 802-024, November 2001. (Revised January 2002.)
- 05 Mar 2014
- What Do You Think?
When Will the Next Dot.com Bubble Burst?
view of the bubble phenomenon in markets suggests a question for further consideration. Is "collateral" damage from tech bubbles inevitable, necessary, and useful? What do you think? Original... View Details
- 19 Feb 2007
- Research & Ideas
Inexperienced Investors and Market Bubbles
"Past performance is no guarantee of future results." —standard financial disclaimer Neophyte investors—it is believed—play a role in creating asset price bubbles such as the tech collapse a few... View Details
- 2005
- Chapter
Valuation Bubbles and Broadband Deployment
- March 2011 (Revised April 2011)
- Case
Gold in 2011: Bubble or Safe Haven Asset?
By: Robin Greenwood and Benjamin Steiner
Case explores the pricing of gold in 2011. Is the pricing justified or are we in a speculative bubble? What data are useful in determining a view on this question? View Details
Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Money; Asset Management; Investment; Price Bubble; Policy; Risk Management
Greenwood, Robin, and Benjamin Steiner. "Gold in 2011: Bubble or Safe Haven Asset?" Harvard Business School Case 211-095, March 2011. (Revised April 2011.)
- March 2000
- Background Note
Transfer Pricing
By: Robert S. Kaplan
Discusses use of market prices, negotiated prices, variable costs, dual rate, and full costs for transfer prices. View Details
- March 2022 (Revised March 2024)
- Case
Hometown Foods: Changing Price amid Inflation
During the early part of the 2021 Covid-19 pandemic, Hometown Foods, a large seller of flour-based products, thrived as consumers hoarded baked goods and took up baking to pass the time and find comfort. Then, amid growing shortages in commodities, a vaccine arrived,... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Consumer Behavior; Supply Chain; Inflation and Deflation; Spending; Price Bubble; Price; Volatility; Food and Beverage Industry
De Freitas, Julian, Jeremy Yang, and Das Narayandas. "Hometown Foods: Changing Price amid Inflation." Harvard Business School Case 522-087, March 2022. (Revised March 2024.)
- December 1991
- Article
Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices
By: Kenneth A. Froot and M. Obstfeld
Keywords: Rational Expectations; Equities; Fundamentals; Behavioral Finance; Price Bubble; Stocks; Information; Asset Pricing
Froot, Kenneth A., and M. Obstfeld. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices." American Economic Review 81, no. 5 (December 1991): 1189–1214. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 3091, March 1992. Reprinted in Speculation and Financial Markets, edited by M. Taylor and L. Gallagher. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2001.)
- March 2012 (Revised October 2012)
- Case
Hayman Capital Management
By: Robin Greenwood, Julie Messina and Jared Dourdeville
In late December 2011, Hayman Capital founder and portfolio manager Kyle Bass was reviewing Japanese government budget projections for 2012. The projections appeared contrary to Hayman Capital's views on Japan, where the fund had built a bearish position. Japan had the... View Details
Keywords: Investment Management; Speculative Bubbles; Japan; Government Policy; Financial Management; Price Bubble; Credit; Financial Strategy; Behavioral Finance; Government and Politics; Macroeconomics; Financial Services Industry; Japan
Greenwood, Robin, Julie Messina, and Jared Dourdeville. "Hayman Capital Management." Harvard Business School Case 212-091, March 2012. (Revised October 2012.)