Publications

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12 Mar 2009
Working Paper Summaries

Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

Keywords: by John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam & Luis M. Viceira

2009
Working Paper

Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira

2017
Article

Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira

The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of... View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Bonds; Interest Rates; Investment Return; Risk Management

03 Jun 2024
News

Biden and Trump Share a Faith in Import Tariffs, Despite Inflation Risks

2023
Working Paper

Who Invests in Crypto? Wealth, Financial Constraints, and Risk Attitudes

By: Darren Aiello, Scott R. Baker, Tetyana Balyuk, Marco Di Maggio, Mark J. Johnson and Jason Kotter

We provide a first look into the drivers of household cryptocurrency investing. Analyzing consumer transaction data for millions of U.S. households, we find that, except for high income early adopters, cryptocurrency investors resemble the general population. These... View Details

Keywords: Consumer Finance; Cryptocurrency; Fintech; Inflation; Portfolio Choice; Stimulus; Consumer Behavior; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment

SSRN

Article

Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

This paper empirically analyzes the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) in inflation-indexed (or real) bonds and in nominal bonds in the U.S. and in the U.K. We strongly reject the EH in inflation-indexed bonds and also confirm and update the existing evidence rejecting the... View Details

Keywords: TIPS; Breakeven Inflation; Return Predictability; Bond Risk Premia; Risk Management; Bonds; Financial Liquidity; Inflation and Deflation; United Kingdom; United States

Find at Harvard

2013
Working Paper

Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence... View Details

Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Term Structure; Real Interest Rate Risk; Inflation Risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States

SSRN

Other Unpublished Work

Inflation Uncertainty and the Wage Bargain

By: Lucy White and Hans-Joachim Voth

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Risk and Uncertainty; Wages; Labor and Management Relations; Negotiation

April 1989 (Revised September 1989)
Case

CIBA-GEIGY AG: Impact of Inflation and Currency Fluctuations

By: Hugo Uyterhoeven

The chairman of the second-largest Swiss multinational company is preparing for a board discussion on the impact of a constantly strengthening Swiss franc. The case raises strategic issues in terms of international competitiveness, financial reporting issues of how to... View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Currency; Financial Management; Multinational Firms and Management; Problems and Challenges; Risk and Uncertainty; Competitive Strategy; Switzerland

18 Oct 2013
Working Paper Summaries

Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

Keywords: by John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira

January 2010 (Revised October 2010)
Case

Colombia: Strong Fundamentals, Global Risk

By: Aldo Musacchio, Richard H. K. Vietor, Jonathan Schlefer and Carolina Camacho

By mid-2009 Colombian President Alvaro Uribe had ended decades of virtual civil war and strengthened the business climate, but he faced tough economic challenges. Though he had instituted prominent market reforms and brought inflation down sharply, Colombia seemed... View Details

Keywords: Developing Countries and Economies; Economic Growth; Macroeconomics; Trade; Global Strategy; Infrastructure; Business and Government Relations; Colombia

07 Feb 2023
Research & Ideas

Supervisor of Sandwiches? More Companies Inflate Titles to Avoid Extra Pay

the study estimates. Cohen’s study emerges as record inflation and chronic staffing shortages collide making compensation a top challenge in human resources. While the trend is most heavily concentrated in lower-paying sectors like... View Details

Keywords: by Scott Van Voorhis

27 May 2011
Working Paper Summaries

An Empirical Decomposition of Risk and Liquidity in Nominal and Inflation-Indexed Government Bonds

Keywords: by Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira

25 Oct 2017
News

New Report: Degree Inflation Hurting Bottom Line of U.S. Firms, Closing Off Economic Opportunity for Millions of Americans

Web

2018 Financial Risk and Regulation Survey - Behavioral Finance & Financial Stability

Dodd-Frank Act, and are wary of risks to non-bank financial intermediaries, to which most of the post-crisis regulation does not apply. Despite confidence in the financial system and its ability to withstand shocks, participants... View Details

January 2004 (Revised June 2004)
Case

Innovation at the Treasury: Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (A)

By: Kenneth A. Froot, Peter A. Hecht and Christopher Edward James Payton

In 1997, the U.S. Treasury was deciding whether to proceed with a proposal to issue inflation-indexed bonds. This case explores the challenges facing innovation in the financial markets as the Treasury tries to determine whether to introduce Treasury... View Details

Keywords: Inflation; Innovation; Federal Government; Securities; Debt Securities; Risk Management; Bonds; Investment Portfolio; Capital Markets; Inflation and Deflation; Government and Politics; Innovation and Invention; United States

September 2014 (Revised May 2015)
Case

The United Kingdom and the Means to Prosperity

By: Laura Alfaro, Lakshmi Iyer and Hilary White

After struggling through the country's longest recession since 2008, the U.K. was expected to grow faster than any other G7 nation in 2014. Analysts wondered whether the return to growth was because, or in spite of, Prime Minister David Cameron's controversial £113... View Details