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October 2024
Article

Canary Categories

By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester

Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details

Keywords: Churn; Churn Management; Churn/retention; Assortment Planning; Retail; Retailing; Retailing Industry; Preference Heterogeneity; Assortment Optimization; Customers; Retention; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Retail Industry

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2024
Working Paper

Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections

By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro

Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics

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March 2024
Case

Hippo: Weathering the Storm of the Home Insurance Crisis

By: Lauren Cohen, Grace Headinger and Sophia Pan

Rick McCathron, CEO of Hippo, considered how the firm’s underwriting model could account for the effects of climate change. Along with providing smart home packages, targeting risk-friendly customers, and using data-driven pricing, the Insurtech used technologically... View Details

February 2024
Teaching Note

AB InBev: Brewing Up Forecasts during COVID-19

By: Mark Egan and C. Fritz Foley

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 224-020. In July 2021, the CEO of AB InBev's European operations and his team strategized to position the company for success post-pandemic. As the world's largest beer company, boasting over 500 brands, revenue of $46 billion, and a... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting; Investor Relations; Beverage Industry; Corporate Finance; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Health Pandemics; Analytics and Data Science; Digital Transformation; Crisis Management; Business Model; Food and Beverage Industry; United States; Europe

2023
Working Paper

'De Gustibus' and Disputes about Reference Dependence

By: Thomas Graeber, Pol Campos-Mercade, Lorenz Goette, Alexandre Kellogg and Charles Sprenger

Existing tests of reference-dependent preferences assume universal loss aversion. This paper examines the implications of heterogeneity in gain-loss attitudes for such tests. In experiments on labor supply and exchange behavior we measure gain-loss attitudes and then... View Details

Keywords: Behavioral Economics; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction

January 2024
Supplement

Winning Business at Russell Reynolds

By: Ethan Bernstein and Cara Mazzucco

In an effort to make compensation drive collaboration, Russell Reynolds Associates’ (RRA) CEO Clarke Murphy sought to re-engineer the bonus system for his executive search consultants in 2016. As his HR analytics guru, Kelly Smith, points out, that risks upsetting—and... View Details

Keywords: Restructuring; Talent and Talent Management; Compensation and Benefits; Growth and Development Strategy; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Culture; Performance Evaluation; Motivation and Incentives; Consulting Industry

October 2023
Article

Improving Regulatory Effectiveness Through Better Targeting: Evidence from OSHA

By: Matthew S. Johnson, David I. Levine and Michael W. Toffel

We study how a regulator can best target inspections. Our case study is a U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) program that randomly allocated some inspections. On average, each inspection averted 2.4 serious injuries (9%) over the next five years.... View Details

Keywords: Safety Regulations; Regulations; Regulatory Enforcement; Machine Learning Models; Safety; Operations; Service Operations; Production; Forecasting and Prediction; Decisions; United States

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September 2023 (Revised October 2024)
Case

Forecasting Climate Risks: Aviva’s Climate Calculus

By: Mark Egan and Peter Tufano

In late 2021, Ben Carr, Director of Analytics and Capital Modeling at Aviva Plc (Aviva)—a leading insurer with core operations in the UK, Ireland and Canada,—was preparing for an upcoming presentation before the company's board which included its CEO, Amanda Blanc,... View Details

Keywords: Climate Risk; Climate Finance; Forecasting; Insurance; Risk Measurement; Climate Change; Risk Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Insurance Industry; United States

2023
Article

On the Impact of Actionable Explanations on Social Segregation

By: Ruijiang Gao and Himabindu Lakkaraju

As predictive models seep into several real-world applications, it has become critical to ensure that individuals who are negatively impacted by the outcomes of these models are provided with a means for recourse. To this end, there has been a growing body of research... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Outcome or Result

July 2023
Article

Takahashi-Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations

By: Dawson Beutler, Alex Billias, Sam Holt, Josh Lerner and TzuHwan Seet

In 2001, Dean Takahashi and Seth Alexander of the Yale University Investments Office developed a deterministic model for estimating future cash flows and valuations for the Yale endowment’s private equity portfolio. Their model, which is simple and intuitive, is still... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Portfolio; Analytics and Data Science

June 2023 (Revised May 2024)
Case

Optimalen Capital

By: Malcolm Baker, Elisabeth Kempf and Jonathan Wallen

A new client portfolio manager at a quantitative investment management firm must explain why her firm, Optimalen Capital, has rebalanced a client portfolio with a set of trades that seem unintuitive. In particular, Optimalen has added to its position of Walmart (ticker... View Details

Keywords: Investments; CAPM; Capital Asset Pricing Model; Investment Portfolio; Asset Pricing

2023
Working Paper

Evaluation and Learning in R&D Investment

By: Alexander P. Frankel, Joshua L. Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou

We examine the role of spillover learning in shaping the value of exploratory versus incremental R&D. Using data from drug development, we show that novel drug candidates generate more knowledge spillovers than incremental ones. Despite being less likely to reach... View Details

Keywords: Research and Development; Forecasting and Prediction; Valuation; Pharmaceutical Industry

April 12, 2023
Article

Using AI to Adjust Your Marketing and Sales in a Volatile World

By: Das Narayandas and Arijit Sengupta

Why are some firms better and faster than others at adapting their use of customer data to respond to changing or uncertain marketing conditions? A common thread across faster-acting firms is the use of AI models to predict outcomes at various stages of the customer... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Consumer Behavior; Technology Adoption; Competitive Advantage

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March–April 2023
Article

Market Segmentation Trees

By: Ali Aouad, Adam Elmachtoub, Kris J. Ferreira and Ryan McNellis

Problem definition: We seek to provide an interpretable framework for segmenting users in a population for personalized decision making. Methodology/results: We propose a general methodology, market segmentation trees (MSTs), for learning market... View Details

Keywords: Decision Trees; Computational Advertising; Market Segmentation; Analytics and Data Science; E-commerce; Consumer Behavior; Marketplace Matching; Marketing Channels; Digital Marketing

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February 2023
Supplement

Coats Dyehouse Management

By: Willy C. Shih

Coats, the largest thread maker in the world, transformed its business to digital colour measurement so that it could respond better to customer demand in the garment industry for rapid product cycles and more fragmented colour choices. Its embrace of digital colour... View Details

Keywords: Inventory Management; Supply Chain; Inventory; Supply Chain Management; Operations; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Asia

January–February 2023
Article

Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions

By: Michael Lingzhi Li, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Omar Skali Lami, Thomas Trikalinos, Nikolaos Trichakis and Dimitris Bertsimas

We developed DELPHI, a novel epidemiological model for predicting detected cases and deaths in the prevaccination era of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model allows for underdetection of infections and effects of government interventions. We have applied DELPHI across more... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Epidemics; Analytics and Data Science; Health Pandemics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction

October–December 2022
Article

Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem

By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius

Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Econometric Analysis; Instrumental Variable; Random Forest; Causal Inference; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction

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April 12, 2022
Article

Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States

By: Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li and et al.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Forecasting and Prediction; Health Pandemics; Mathematical Methods; Partners and Partnerships

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March 2022 (Revised May 2022)
Case

Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (A)

By: Ethan Bernstein and Cara Mazzucco

In an effort to make compensation drive collaboration, Russell Reynolds Associates’ (RRA) CEO Clarke Murphy sought to re-engineer the bonus system for his executive search consultants in 2016. As his HR analytics guru, Kelly Smith, points out, that risks upsetting–and... View Details

March 2022
Supplement

Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (B)

By: Ethan Bernstein and Cara Mazzucco

In an effort to make compensation drive collaboration, Russell Reynolds Associates’ (RRA) CEO Clarke Murphy sought to re-engineer the bonus system for his executive search consultants in 2016. As his HR analytics guru, Kelly Smith, points out, that risks upsetting–and... View Details

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