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- News (126)
- Research (614)
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- December 1989
- Article
On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations
By: K. A. Froot and T. Ito
This paper examines whether short-term exchange rate expectations 'overreact' by comparing them with long-term expectations. We develop a set of nonlinear restrictions linking expectations at different forecast horizons. The restrictions impose consistency, a property... View Details
Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing
Froot, K. A., and T. Ito. "On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations." Journal of International Money and Finance 8, no. 4 (December 1989): 487–510. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 2577, May 1988.)
- November 2023
- Article
A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates
We develop a model in which specialized bond investors must absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, a shift in the... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein, and Adi Sunderam. "A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates." Quarterly Journal of Economics 138, no. 4 (November 2023): 2327–2389.
- 2020
- Chapter
Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy
By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
In the past decade, foreign participation in local-currency bond markets in emerging countries increased dramatically. Additionally, emerging countries are increasingly deviating from inflation targeting regimes, managing their exchange rate and engaging in... View Details
Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy." In Asset Management at Central Banks and Monetary Authorities: New Practices in Managing International Foreign Exchange Reserves, edited by Jacob Bjorheim. Springer, 2020. (Book link.)
- May 2004 (Revised June 2005)
- Background Note
Exchange Rate Regimes
By: Rafael M. Di Tella and Ingrid Vogel
There are many options for a country in the management of monetary policy. At the most basic level is the decision of whether to adopt a fixed or a floating exchange rate. Introduces the economics behind exchange rates and the debate between fixed vs. floating regimes. View Details
Di Tella, Rafael M., and Ingrid Vogel. "Exchange Rate Regimes." Harvard Business School Background Note 704-038, May 2004. (Revised June 2005.)
- 1992
- Chapter
Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market
By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; International Finance; Currency Exchange Rate; Asset Pricing; Forecasting and Prediction; Policy
Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market." In International Business Reader, edited by D. Duta. London: Oxford University Press, 1992. (Revised from IMF Working Paper No. 90/43 and NBER Working Paper No. 3470, October 1990.)
- April 2001
- Exercise
Exchange Rate Exercise
Tests students' understanding of exchange rate analytics and how shifts in exchange rates affect firms' economics. View Details
Keywords: Currency Exchange Rate
Kennedy, Robert E. "Exchange Rate Exercise." Harvard Business School Exercise 701-122, April 2001.
- 2019
- Working Paper
Real Exchange Rate Behavior: New Evidence from Matched Retail Goods
By: Alberto Cavallo, Brent Neiman and Roberto Rigobon
We use a dataset containing daily prices for thousands of matched retail products in nine countries to study tradable-goods real exchange rates. Prices were collected from the websites of large multi-channel retailers and then carefully matched into narrowly-defined... View Details
Keywords: Purchasing Power Parity; Online Prices; Real Exchange Rate; Macroeconomics; Currency Exchange Rate; Price; Internet and the Web
Cavallo, Alberto, Brent Neiman, and Roberto Rigobon. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: New Evidence from Matched Retail Goods." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-040, January 2019.
- March 1987
- Article
Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations
By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; Asset Pricing; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Analytics and Data Science; Finance
Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations." American Economic Review 77, no. 1 (March 1987): 133–153. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 1672.)
- March 1984 (Revised July 1985)
- Background Note
Note on Exchange Rate Determination
Discusses exchange rate determination in world of flexible rates. The fundamentals of supply of and demand for foreign exchange are explained. View Details
Keywords: Currency Exchange Rate
Meerschwam, David M. "Note on Exchange Rate Determination." Harvard Business School Background Note 384-171, March 1984. (Revised July 1985.)
- April 2001
- Background Note
Exchange Rate Terminology and Analytics
An introduction to the concept of exchange rates, simple analytics regarding currency appreciation and devaluation, and real and nominal exchange rates. Concludes with a series of examples that illustrate how shifts in exchange rates and inflation can affect firms'... View Details
Kennedy, Robert E. "Exchange Rate Terminology and Analytics." Harvard Business School Background Note 701-121, April 2001.
- March 2006
- Module Note
Exchange Rates and Firms
By: Mihir A. Desai and Kathleen Luchs
Describes a core module in the International Finance course at Harvard Business School. The module focuses on how firms identify, measure, and manage currency exposures. The cases first introduce students to foreign exchange exposures and the tools used to manage... View Details
Desai, Mihir A., and Kathleen Luchs. "Exchange Rates and Firms." Harvard Business School Module Note 206-123, March 2006.
- Article
Anomalies: Foreign Exchange
By: K. A. Froot and R. Thaler
Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing
Froot, K. A., and R. Thaler. "Anomalies: Foreign Exchange." Journal of Economic Perspectives 4, no. 3 (Summer 1990): 179–192. (Reprinted in Current Issues in the International Economy: A Reader, edited by L. Goldberg and M. Klein. New York: Harper Collins, 1992; Speculation and Financial Markets, edited by M. Taylor and L. Gallagher. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2001; and in Open Economy Macroeconomics, Volume II, Part I, Article 4 edited by Norman Miller. Cheltenham, U.K. and Northampton, Mass., U.S.: Edward Elgar, March 2006: 74-87.)
- March 2006
- Module Note
Exchange Rates and Global Markets
By: Mihir A. Desai and Kathleen Luchs
Describes the first module of the International Finance course at Harvard Business School. This introductory module focuses on the concepts and skills that students need throughout a course on international finance: a familiarity with exchange rates and associated... View Details
Keywords: Asset Pricing; Currency Exchange Rate; Globalized Markets and Industries; International Finance; Teaching; Innovation and Invention; Education Industry
Desai, Mihir A., and Kathleen Luchs. "Exchange Rates and Global Markets." Harvard Business School Module Note 206-122, March 2006.
- January 2003
- Case
Exchange Rate Policy at the Monetary Authority of Singapore
By: Mihir A. Desai and Mark Veblen
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is responsible for the country's monetary policy, and its decisions are intended to support the country's overall strategy for sustainable economic growth with price stability. MAS has been very successful in managing exchange... View Details
Desai, Mihir A., and Mark Veblen. "Exchange Rate Policy at the Monetary Authority of Singapore." Harvard Business School Case 204-037, January 2003.
- Article
You Can't Always Get What You Want: The Real Exchange Rate and Manufacturing Performance in a World of Global Value Chains
By: Laura Alfaro, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger and Yanping Liu
Real exchange rate devaluations are typically seen as a viable development strategy, but the effectiveness of the approach may vary over time and across countries. This column explores this issue by focusing on the microeconomics of firm-level responses to exchange... View Details
Keywords: Manufacturing Performance; Real Exchange Rate; Global Value Chains; Economics; Production; Performance
Alfaro, Laura, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger, and Yanping Liu. "You Can't Always Get What You Want: The Real Exchange Rate and Manufacturing Performance in a World of Global Value Chains." Vox, CEPR Policy Portal (October 2, 2018).
- June 2011 (Revised August 2011)
- Background Note
China and the Yuan-Dollar Exchange Rate
By: Aldo Musacchio
This note explains how the People's Bank of China (PBOC) manages (some say manipulate) the dollar-yuan exchange rate. It discusses briefly the process of sterilization in China and the possible costs for the PBOC. Therefore, the note summarizes some of the main... View Details
Musacchio, Aldo. "China and the Yuan-Dollar Exchange Rate." Harvard Business School Background Note 711-110, June 2011. (Revised August 2011.)
- 2001
- Article
Exchange Rates and Tax-Based Promotion
By: M. A. Desai and James R. Hines Jr.
Desai, M. A., and James R. Hines Jr. "Exchange Rates and Tax-Based Promotion." Proceedings of the Annual Conference on Taxation and Minutes of the Annual Meeting of the National Tax Association (2001).
- Article
Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?
By: K. A. Froot and J. Frankel
Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing
Froot, K. A., and J. Frankel. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?" Quarterly Journal of Economics 104, no. 1 (February 1989): 139–161. (Revision of "Findings of Forward Discount Bias Interpreted in Light of Exchange Rate Survey Data," NBER Working Paper No. 1963 and Sloan Working Paper No. 1906-87, August 1987. Reprinted in Advances in Behavioral Finance, edited by Richard Thaler. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1993: 359-382 and in Speculation and Financial Markets, edited by M. Taylor and L. Gallagher. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2001.)
- November 2018
- Technical Note
Exchange Rates and the Trilemma
By: Alberto Cavallo
Cavallo, Alberto. "Exchange Rates and the Trilemma." Harvard Business School Technical Note 719-031, November 2018.
- May 1990
- Article
Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market
By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing
Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market." American Economic Review 80, no. 2 (May 1990): 181–185. (Reprinted in New Developments in Exchange Rate Economics, edited by L. Sarno and M. Taylor. Edward Elgar, 2001; and in Speculation and Financial Markets, edited by M. Taylor and L. Gallagher. Edward Elgar, 2001.)