Publications

02 Mar 2016
Working Paper Summaries

Extrapolation and Bubbles

Keywords: by Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin, and Andrei Shleifer

January 2015
Article

X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model

By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer

Survey evidence suggests that many investors form beliefs about future stock market returns by extrapolating past returns. Such beliefs are hard to reconcile with existing models of the aggregate stock market. We study a consumption-based asset pricing model in which... View Details

Keywords: Capital Asset Pricing; Returns; Investing; Asset Pricing; Investment Return

Article

Extrapolating from Moore's Law

By: Michael A. Cusumano and David B. Yoffie

Keywords: Strategy; Technology

2014
Other Presentation

Feature Extrapolation in Mental Tracking

By: Julian De Freitas and K. Knobre

29 Aug 2013
Working Paper Summaries

X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model

Keywords: by Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin & Andrei Shleifer

2022
Working Paper

Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations

By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand

We introduce a heterogeneous agent model which features extrapolative beliefs and time-varying risk aversion. The model leads to an empirical framework which we estimate with stock prices, survey data and risk aversion measures. We find that extrapolative beliefs and... View Details

Keywords: Stock Market; Investment Decisions; Asset Pricing; Investment; Behavioral Finance; Stocks

SSRN

Awards

Jack Treynor Prize

By: Robin Greenwood

Winner of a 2014 Jack Treynor Prize from the Institute for Quantitative Research in Finance for "X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model" (Journal of Financial Economics, 2015) with Nicholas Barberis, Lawrence Jin, and Andrei Shleifer. The Treynor... View Details

2023
Article

Exploiting Discovered Regression Discontinuities to Debias Conditioned-on-observable Estimators

By: Benjamin Jakubowski, Siram Somanchi, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill

Regression discontinuity (RD) designs are widely used to estimate causal effects in the absence of a randomized experiment. However, standard approaches to RD analysis face two significant limitations. First, they require a priori knowledge of discontinuities in... View Details

Keywords: Regression Discontinuity Design; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning

As technology opens the doors to vast troves of data, opportunities are emerging to create new insights on a small business’s health and prospects. Insights from this data have the potential to resolve two defining issues that have faced lenders and borrowers in... View Details

April 1991 (Revised April 1993)
Background Note

Strategic Response to Uncertainty

Managers often ignore uncertainty and plan as if the world were certain. Frequently, strategy is formulated based on an extrapolation of current trends into the future, or the best guess scenario of the manager involved. This note discusses four approaches to shaping... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management

Educators

Purchase

10 Dec 2015
News

Can Google Street View Images Predict Household Income?

February 1989 (Revised November 1991)
Case

Science Technology Co.--1985

By: Thomas R. Piper

The CEO of a U.S. electronics firm is assessing the financial forecasts and the financing plan prepared by the chief financial officer. Given the cyclicality of the industry and the volatility of the firm's performance, the CEO is unsure as to the usefulness of... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Change Management; Industry Growth; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Strategy; Volatility; Electronics Industry

Educators

Purchase

Forthcoming
Article

Reflexivity in Credit Markets

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Lawrence J. Jin

Reflexivity is the idea that investors' biased beliefs affect market outcomes and that market outcomes in turn affect investors’ future biases. We develop a dynamic behavioral model of the credit cycle featuring this two-way feedback loop. Investors form beliefs about... View Details

Keywords: Reflexivity; Attitudes; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Credit

Article

Predictions, Prophets, and Restarting Your Business

By: Frank V. Cespedes

The first task of crisis management is a reasonably accurate view of the current situation and how it might evolve. There are many predictions about so-called “new normal” as a result of the semi-enforced social distancing necessitated by the coronavirus. But most are... View Details

Keywords: Health Pandemics; Crisis Management; Strategic Planning

15 Feb 2013
Working Paper Summaries

Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood & Andrei Shleifer; Financial Services

2018
Working Paper

Diagnostic Bubbles

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer

We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and... View Details

Keywords: Bubbles; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods

September 2021
Article

Diagnostic Bubbles

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer

We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Speculation; Diagnostic Expectations; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods

February 2024
Article

Representation and Extrapolation: Evidence from Clinical Trials

By: Marcella Alsan, Maya Durvasula, Harsh Gupta, Joshua Schwartzstein and Heidi L. Williams

This article examines the consequences and causes of low enrollment of Black patients in clinical trials. We develop a simple model of similarity-based extrapolation that predicts that evidence is more relevant for decision-making by physicians and patients when it... View Details

Keywords: Representation; Racial Disparity; Health Testing and Trials; Race; Equality and Inequality; Innovation and Invention; Pharmaceutical Industry

2015
Article

What's so Institutional about Leadership?: Leadership Mechanisms of Value Infusion

By: Ryan Raffaelli and Mary Ann Glynn

Leaders are important social actors in organizations, centrally involved in establishing and maintaining institutional values, a view that was articulated by Philip Selznick (1957) nearly a half-century ago, but often overlooked in institutionalists' accounts. Our... View Details

Keywords: Leadership; Organizations; Values and Beliefs