Publications

1995
Book

Decisions under Uncertainty

By: D. E. Bell and A. Schleifer Jr.

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions

2020
Working Paper

Strategic Foresight as Dynamic Capability: A New Lens on Knightian Uncertainty

By: J. Peter Scoblic

This paper proposes to treat strategic foresight as a dynamic capability, providing a new theoretical lens on managerial judgment. Formulating strategy under uncertainty is a central challenge facing the modern firm. Analogy is thought to help managers make sense of... View Details

Keywords: Foresight; Dynamic Capabilities; Managerial Judgment; Risk and Uncertainty; Management; Strategy

Research Summary

Self-environment relationship and its effect on decisions under risk and uncertainty

My research seek to better understand the main cognitive and social abilities that guide our judgments, and the ways they interact with aspects of the situation to shape humans' decisions. It is currently comprised of three related... View Details

August 2016
Article

Asymmetric Effects of Favorable and Unfavorable Information on Decision-making Under Ambiguity

By: Alexander Peysakhovich and Uma R. Karmarkar

Most daily decisions involve uncertainty about outcome probabilities arising from incomplete knowledge, i.e., ambiguity. We explore how the addition of partial information affects these types of choices using theoretical and empirical methods. Our experiments in both... View Details

Keywords: Ambiguity; Decision Making; Outcomes; Information; Decision Choices and Conditions; Outcome or Result

February 2016 (Revised June 2016)
Case

Curtis LLP: A Case on Cases

By: Nikolaos Trichakis

A product market firm faces an inventory investment decision in the face of demand uncertainty. To hedge against some of the uncertainty, the firm contemplates an additional fixed investment that would offer the flexibility of diverting inventory in case of weak sales.... View Details

Keywords: Dynamic Decision Making Under Uncertainty; Operations Management; Inventory Management; Real Options; Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Decision Choices and Conditions; Operations

Educators

2017
Article

Blunted Ambiguity Aversion During Cost-Benefit Decisions in Antisocial Individuals

By: Joshua W. Buckholtz, Uma R. Karmarkar, Shengxuan Ye, Grace M. Brennan and Arielle Baskin-Sommers

Antisocial behavior is often assumed to reflect aberrant risk processing. However, many of the most significant forms of antisocial behavior, including crime, reflect the outcomes of decisions made under conditions of ambiguity rather than risk. While risk and... View Details

Keywords: Ambiguity; Neuroscience; Neuroeconomics; Choice; Psychology; Decision Choice And Uncertainty; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions; Cost vs Benefits; Health Disorders

March 2008
Course Overview Note

Dynamic Markets

By: Joshua D. Coval and Erik Stafford

The Dynamic Markets course at Harvard Business School is organized around the hands-on application of financial decision making in a wide variety of capital market settings. The course relies heavily on in-class simulations of a range of market settings where students... View Details

Keywords: Value Creation; Decision Making; Capital Markets; Competitive Strategy; Profit; Applications and Software; Information; Strategy; Price; Outcome or Result; Curriculum and Courses; Theory

2010
Working Paper

On the Descriptive Value of Loss Aversion in Decisions under Risk

By: Eyal Ert and Ido Erev

Five studies are presented that explore the assertion that losses loom larger than gains. The first two studies reveal equal sensitivity to gains and losses. For example, half of the participants preferred the gamble "1000 with probability 0.5; -1000 otherwise"... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Research; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior; Loss

September 2006 (Revised March 2012)
Case

Fritidsresor Under Pressure (A): The First 10 Hours

By: Joshua D. Margolis, Vincent Marie Dessain and Anders Sjoman

When a tsunami hit Southeast Asia on December 26, 2004, the leadership team at a Swedish tour company must manage a devastating crisis affecting thousands of its customers and employees in Thailand. Documents the challenges the company faced in the first ten hours of... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Leadership; Crisis Management; Natural Disasters; Tourism Industry; Thailand; Sweden

Educators

Article

Managing the Unknowable: The Effectiveness of Early-stage Investor Gut Feel in Entrepreneurial Investment Decisions

By: Laura Huang and Jone L. Pearce

Using an inductive theory-development study, a field experiment, and a longitudinal field test, we examine early-stage entrepreneurial investment decision making under conditions of extreme uncertainty. Building on existing literature on decision making and risk in... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Risk and Uncertainty; Decision Making; Emotions; Performance Effectiveness

Article

Price and Quality Decisions by Self-Serving Managers

By: Marco Bertini, Daniel Halbheer and Oded Koenigsberg

We present a theory of price and quality decisions by managers who are self-serving. In the theory, firms stress the price or quality of their products, but not both. Accounting for this, managers exploit any uncertainty about the cause of market outcomes to credit... View Details

Keywords: Causal Reasoning; Self-serving Bias; Strategic Orientation; Managerial Decision-making; Price; Quality; Decision Making; Theory

14 Jul 2020
Research & Ideas

Restarting Under Uncertainty: Managerial Experiences from Around the World

companies all around the world are showing tremendous dynamism and willingness to embrace the challenge of making businesses stronger and safer in a sustainable way. The managers we interviewed share a... View Details

Keywords: by Raffaella Sadun, Andrea Bertoni, Alexia Delfino, Giovanni Fassio, and Mariapaola Testa

Research Summary

Overview

Professor Goh’s primary research interest is applying mathematical models to real-world problems in health care in order to inform, improve, and enhance medical decision making and health policy. His recent work in this domain focuses on developing new methods for... View Details

Keywords: Uncertainty; Optimization; Inventory Management; Health; Decision Making; Supply Chain

March 2005
Article

Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage

By: Robin Greenwood

I develop a framework to analyze demand curves for multiple risky securities at extended horizons in a setting with limits-to-arbitrage. Following an unexpected change in uninformed investor demand for several assets, I predict returns of each security to be... View Details

Keywords: Limits To Arbitrage; Event Studies; Demand Curves; Portfolio Choice; Framework; Demand and Consumers; Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Debt Securities; Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Assets; Investment Portfolio; System Shocks; Price; Japan

March 2000
Exercise

Developing Products on Internet Time: A Process Design Exercise

By: Stefan H. Thomke

This team exercise allows students to experience some of the dynamics of developing products in the fast-paced Internet environment and was inspired by the browser war between Netscape and Microsoft. Designed to be taught in a single class session, the exercise... View Details

Keywords: Product Development; Internet and the Web; Problems and Challenges; Risk and Uncertainty; Design; Decisions; Management Practices and Processes; Integration; Organizations; Competition

November 1991 (Revised August 1994)
Background Note

Relevant Costs and Revenues

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

Develops the idea that the relevance of costs and revenues depends on what decisions are under consideration. Revenues and costs are relevant if they would be different under one decision choice than under the other. Teaching purpose: Basic background material for... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Cost; Revenue; Framework; Managerial Roles; Risk and Uncertainty

Educators