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- 2021
- Working Paper
Consuming Contests: Outcome Uncertainty and Spectator Demand for Contest-based Entertainment
By: Patrick J. Ferguson and Karim R. Lakhani
Contests that are designed to be consumed for entertainment by non-contestants are a fixture of economic, cultural and political life. In this paper, we examine whether individuals prefer to consume contests that have more uncertain outcomes. We look to... View Details
Keywords: Contest Design; Information Preferences; Consumer Demand; Sports; Entertainment; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Demand and Consumers; Outcome or Result
Ferguson, Patrick J., and Karim R. Lakhani. "Consuming Contests: Outcome Uncertainty and Spectator Demand for Contest-based Entertainment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-087, February 2021.
- Research Summary
Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts
Measuring demand uncertainty is a key activity in supply chain planning, but is difficult when demand history is unavailable such as for new products. One method that can be applied in such cases uses dispersion among forecasting experts as a measure of demand... View Details
- fall 2007
- Article
Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts
By: Vishal Gaur, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman and Marshall L. Fisher
Gaur, Vishal, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman, and Marshall L. Fisher. "Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 9, no. 4 (fall 2007).
- 17 Mar 2021
- Working Paper Summaries
Consuming Contests: Outcome Uncertainty and Spectator Demand for Contest-based Entertainment
- Article
Configuring a Supply Chain to Reduce the Cost of Demand Uncertainty
By: A. Raman, M. Fisher, J. Hammond and W. Obermeyer
Raman, A., M. Fisher, J. Hammond, and W. Obermeyer. "Configuring a Supply Chain to Reduce the Cost of Demand Uncertainty." Production and Operations Management 6, no. 3 (Fall 1997): 211–225.
- 1998
- Chapter
Configuring a Supply Chain to Reduce the Cost of Demand Uncertainty
By: J. H. Hammond, Marshall L. Fisher, Walter Obermeyer and A. Raman
Keywords: Supply Chain Management; Cost Management; Demand and Consumers; Risk Management; Risk and Uncertainty
Hammond, J. H., Marshall L. Fisher, Walter Obermeyer, and A. Raman. "Configuring a Supply Chain to Reduce the Cost of Demand Uncertainty." In Global Supply Chain and Technology Management. Vol. 1, edited by Hau Lee and Shu Ming Ng, 76–90. POMS Series in Technology and Operations Management. Miami: Production and Operations Management Society (POMS), 1998.
- January 1996
- Article
Reducing the Cost of Demand Uncertainty through Accurate Response to Early Sales
By: A. Raman and M. Fisher
Raman, A., and M. Fisher. "Reducing the Cost of Demand Uncertainty through Accurate Response to Early Sales." Operations Research 44, no. 4 (January 1996): 87–99.
- January 2005
- Article
Agency Costs in a Supply Chain with Demand Uncertainty and Price Competition
By: V.G. Narayanan, Ananth Raman and J. Singh
Narayanan, V.G., Ananth Raman, and J. Singh. "Agency Costs in a Supply Chain with Demand Uncertainty and Price Competition." Management Science 51, no. 1 (January 2005).
- Research Summary
Optimal Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Inventory control problems in supply chains. In this stream of theoretical research, Professor Goh has investigated how inventory should be optimally managed in supply chains. Specifically, he has studied how supply chains can make decisions to operate... View Details
- TeachingInterests
Decision Making Under Uncertainty
By: David E. Bell
Many of the decisions we face are made complicated by having uncertain consequences: how should I set my inventory when I don’t know what demand will be, should I refinance my mortgage when rates might go lower, how big a bet shall I make in a new business, and so... View Details
- March 2005
- Article
Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage
By: Robin Greenwood
I develop a framework to analyze demand curves for multiple risky securities at extended horizons in a setting with limits-to-arbitrage. Following an unexpected change in uninformed investor demand for several assets, I predict returns of each security to be... View Details
Keywords: Limits To Arbitrage; Event Studies; Demand Curves; Portfolio Choice; Framework; Demand and Consumers; Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Debt Securities; Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Assets; Investment Portfolio; System Shocks; Price; Japan
Greenwood, Robin. "Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage." Journal of Financial Economics 75, no. 3 (March 2005): 607–649.
- September 2002
- Case
Align Technology, Inc.: Matching Manufacturing Capacity to Sales Demand
By: H. Kent Bowen and Jonathan P Groberg
Align Technology is a four-year-old medical products company that has invented a new product requiring new manufacturing processes. Demand for the new product has grown more slowly than initial forecasts predicted, and the cost structure is preventing the company from... View Details
Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Problems and Challenges; Product; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Sales; Demand and Consumers; Production; Health Industry
Bowen, H. Kent, and Jonathan P Groberg. "Align Technology, Inc.: Matching Manufacturing Capacity to Sales Demand." Harvard Business School Case 603-058, September 2002.
- 22 Feb 2008
- Working Paper Summaries
Consumer Demand for Prize-Linked Savings: A Preliminary Analysis
- December 2019
- Article
Invest in Information or Wing It? A Model of Dynamic Pricing with Seller Learning
By: Guofang Huang, Hong Luo and Jing Xia
Pricing idiosyncratic products is often challenging because the seller, ex ante, lacks information about the demand for individual items. This paper develops a model of dynamic pricing for idiosyncratic products that features the optimal stopping structure and a seller... View Details
Keywords: Dynamic Pricing; Idiosyncratic Products; Item-specific Demand; Demand Uncertainty; Active Seller Learning; The Value Of Information; Price; Information; Value; Learning
Huang, Guofang, Hong Luo, and Jing Xia. "Invest in Information or Wing It? A Model of Dynamic Pricing with Seller Learning." Management Science 65, no. 12 (December 2019): 5556–5583.
- 05 Jul 2006
- Working Paper Summaries
A Survey-Based Procedure for Measuring Uncertainty or Heterogeneous Preferences in Markets
- 2025
- Working Paper
Climate Risk and the U.S. Insurance Gap: Measurement, Drivers and Implications
By: Parinitha Sastry, Tess Scharlemann, Ishita Sen and Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva
In a world with rising risk, how much are U.S. households willing to pay for homeowners insurance, and what does their demand imply for the future of insurance markets? We provide the first estimates of household willingness to pay for homeowners insurance and the... View Details
Keywords: Climate Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Insurance; Personal Finance; Consumer Behavior; Mortgages
Sastry, Parinitha, Tess Scharlemann, Ishita Sen, and Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva. "The Limits of Insurance Demand and the Growing Protection Gap." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-054, February 2025.
- September 2023
- Article
Consuming Contests: The Effect of Outcome Uncertainty on Spectator Attendance in the Australian Football League
By: Patrick Ferguson and Karim R. Lakhani
Contests that non-contestants consume for entertainment are a fixture of economic, cultural and political life. We exploit injury-induced changes to teams' line-ups in a professional sports setting to examine whether individuals prefer to consume contests that have... View Details
Ferguson, Patrick, and Karim R. Lakhani. "Consuming Contests: The Effect of Outcome Uncertainty on Spectator Attendance in the Australian Football League." Economic Record 99, no. 326 (September 2023): 410–435.
- 09 Dec 2015
- Research Event
How Do You Predict Demand and Set Prices For Products Never Sold Before?
in a digitally-transformed economy. “All of these decisions would be easy to make if I knew what consumer demand will be. The problem is that I have a lot of uncertainty in demand” All retailers face tricky... View Details
- July 2024 (Revised September 2024)
- Case
Shell’s Balancing Act: Resource Allocation and the Green Transition (Abridged)
By: David Collis and Haisley Wert
In mid-2023, amid pressure from climate change activists, shareholder activists, and confronting enormous uncertainty about the future demand for and price of fossil fuels, new Shell CEO Wael Sawan (Harvard MBA 2003) announced a change in strategy for the U.K. oil... View Details
- November 1983
- Article
On the Problems of Applying Ramsey Pricing to the Railroad Industry with Uncertain Demand Elasticities
By: William B. Tye and Dutch Leonard
Tye, William B., and Dutch Leonard. "On the Problems of Applying Ramsey Pricing to the Railroad Industry with Uncertain Demand Elasticities." Transportation Research Part A: General 17, no. 6 (November 1983).