Publications

11 Dec 2012
News

Measuring Bank Credit Supply

Research Summary

Credit Supply Shocks, Network Effects, and the Real Economy

By: Laura Alfaro

We consider the real effects of bank lending shocks and how they permeate the economy through buyer-supplier linkages. We combine administrative data on all firms in Spain with a matched bank-firm-loan dataset with information on the universe of corporate loans for... View Details

30 Jan 2018
Working Paper Summaries

Credit Supply Shocks, Network Effects, and the Real Economy

Keywords: by Laura Alfaro, Manuel García, and Enrique Moral-Benito

March 2021
Article

Loan Guarantees and Credit Supply

By: Natalie Bachas, Olivia S. Kim and Constantine Yannelis

The efficiency of federal lending guarantees depends on whether guarantees increase lending supply or simply act as a subsidy to lenders. We use notches in the guarantee rate schedule for Small Business Administration (SBA) loans to estimate the elasticity of bank... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Financing and Loans; Banks and Banking; Credit

Forthcoming
Article

Transitory and Permanent Cash Flow Shocks in Debt Contract Design

By: Le Ma, Anywhere Sikochi and Yajun Xiao

We examine how lenders design contracts to account for transitory and permanent cash flow shocks facing borrowers. We find that volatile transitory cash flow shocks are associated with fewer liquidity covenants, indicating financial flexibility that enables firms to... View Details

Keywords: Debt Covenants; Cash Flow Shocks; Debt Contracting; Likelihood Of Default; Cash Flow; System Shocks

2024
Working Paper

Transitory and Permanent Cash Flow Shocks in Debt Contract Design

By: Le Ma, Anywhere Sikochi and Yajun Xiao

We examine how lenders design contracts to account for transitory and permanent cash flow shocks facing borrowers. We find that volatile transitory cash flow shocks are associated with fewer liquidity covenants, indicating financial flexibility that enables firms to... View Details

Keywords: Debt Covenants; Cash Flow Shocks; Debt Contracting; Likelihood Of Default; Cash Flow; System Shocks

SSRN

October 2019
Article

Limited Investment Capital and Credit Spreads

By: Emil N. Siriwardane

Using proprietary credit default swap (CDS) data, I investigate how capital shocks at protection sellers impact pricing in the CDS market. Seller capital shocks—measured as CDS portfolio margin payments—account for 12% of the time-series variation in weekly spread... View Details

Keywords: Credit Risk; Derivatives; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Capital Markets; Credit; Financial Institutions

We leverage the inflation upswing of 2022 and various granular datasets to identify robust price-setting patterns following a large supply shock. We show that the frequency of price changes increases dramatically after a large shock. We set up a parsimonious New... View Details

Summer 2020
Article

Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?: The COVID-19 Pandemic Should Be a Wake-up Call for Managers and Prompt Them to Consider Actions That Will Improve Their Resilience to Future Shocks

By: Willy C. Shih

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the complex interdependencies of globalized supply chains. While these global multistage production networks had spread during a relatively benign environment of falling trade barriers and increasing interdependencies among countries,... View Details

Keywords: Supply Chains; Pandemic; Resilience; Supply Chain Management; Supply Chain; Global Range; Health Pandemics; Disruption; System Shocks; Crisis Management; Manufacturing Industry; United States; Asia; Europe; China

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2023
Working Paper

The Credit Supply Channel of Monetary Policy Tightening and Its Distributional Impacts

By: Joshua Bosshardt, Marco Di Maggio, Ali Kakhbod and Amir Kermani

This paper studies how tightening monetary policy transmits to the economy through the mortgage market and sheds new light on the distributional consequences at both the individual and regional levels. We find that credit supply factors, specifically restrictions on... View Details

Keywords: Policy; Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Mortgages; Macroeconomics

Article

Survive Another Day: Using Changes in the Composition of Investments to Measure the Cost of Credit Constraints

By: Luis Garicano and Claudia Steinwender

We introduce a novel empirical strategy to measure the size of credit shocks. Theoretically, we show that credit shocks reduce the value of long-term relative to short-term investments. Empirically, we can therefore compare the reduction of long-term relative to... View Details

Keywords: Credit Constraints; Credit Crunch; Spain; Investment Behavior; Credit Squeeze; Financial Crisis; Economic Growth; Investment; Credit; Manufacturing Industry; Spain; European Union

January 2023
Case

EKI Energy Services: One Billion Carbon Credits

By: George Serafeim

Within nine months from the time of its Initial Public Offering (IPO) in April of 2021, EKI Energy Services (EKI) shares had increased by more than 8,000%. Equally explosive was the growth of the company’s revenues and Earnings Before Interest, Taxes and Depreciation... View Details

Keywords: Carbon Credits; Carbon Emissions; Growth; Business Analysis; Environmental Sustainability; Corporate Valuation; Climate Change; Accounting; Valuation; Transition; Renewable Energy; Analysis; Product Positioning; India

Educators

Purchase

May 2010
Article

Loan Syndication and Credit Cycles

By: Victoria Ivashina and David Scharfstein

Cyclicality in the supply of business credit has been the focus of a considerable amount of research. This cyclicality can stem from shocks to borrowers' collateral, which affect firms' ability to raise capital if agency and information problems are significant (Ben S.... View Details

Keywords: Business Cycles; Capital; Credit; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; System Shocks; Financial Services Industry

25 Aug 2018
News

The Other Amazon Effect: How Prices Have Become Less Insulated From Supply Shocks

20 Jun 2025
News

When Supply Shocks to Essential Inputs Spur Innovation: Lessons from the Global Rare Earths Disruption

2024
Working Paper

CSR Under the Pressure of Financial Shocks

By: Monica Kabutey, Syrena Shirley and Anywhere Sikochi

This study examines how the COVID-19 pandemic influenced firms' interactions with customers and suppliers. Customer-supplier relationships are essential because the success of interconnected firms affects the sustainability of the entire supply chain. We use the... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Supply Chain; Customer Focus and Relationships; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Financial Crisis

2022
Working Paper

Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy Across Races: Evidence from the U.S. Credit Register

By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia and Camelia Minoiu

We examine the consequences of monetary policy on racial disparities, focusing on the role of bank lending to firms through collateral and selection channels. Leveraging comprehensive loan-level data from the U.S. credit register (Y-14Q) of the Federal Reserve, we show... View Details

Keywords: Monetary Policy Transmission; Inequity; Credit Registry; Wealth; Collateral Channel; Selection; Racial Disparity; Racial Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Banks and Banking; Credit; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Banking Industry; United States