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- March 2021
- Article
On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks
By: Laura Alfaro, Manuel García-Santana and Enrique Moral-Benito
We explore the real effects of bank-lending shocks and how they permeate the economy through buyer-supplier linkages. We combine administrative data on all Spanish firms with a matched bank-firm-loan dataset of all corporate loans from 2003 to 2013 to estimate... View Details
Keywords: Credit Supply Shocks; Bank Lending Channel; Input-output Linkages; Output; Mechanisms; Trade Credits; Price Effects; Economics; Credit; System Shocks; Employment; Investment; Spain
Alfaro, Laura, Manuel García-Santana, and Enrique Moral-Benito. "On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks." Journal of Financial Economics 139, no. 3 (March 2021): 895–921.
- 11 Dec 2012
- News
Measuring Bank Credit Supply
- Research Summary
Credit Supply Shocks, Network Effects, and the Real Economy
By: Laura Alfaro
We consider the real effects of bank lending shocks and how they permeate the economy through buyer-supplier linkages. We combine administrative data on all firms in Spain with a matched bank-firm-loan dataset with information on the universe of corporate loans for... View Details
- 30 Jan 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Credit Supply Shocks, Network Effects, and the Real Economy
- March 2021
- Article
Loan Guarantees and Credit Supply
By: Natalie Bachas, Olivia S. Kim and Constantine Yannelis
The efficiency of federal lending guarantees depends on whether guarantees increase lending supply or simply act as a subsidy to lenders. We use notches in the guarantee rate schedule for Small Business Administration (SBA) loans to estimate the elasticity of bank... View Details
Bachas, Natalie, Olivia S. Kim, and Constantine Yannelis. "Loan Guarantees and Credit Supply." Journal of Financial Economics 139, no. 3 (March 2021): 872–894.
- Forthcoming
- Article
Transitory and Permanent Cash Flow Shocks in Debt Contract Design
By: Le Ma, Anywhere Sikochi and Yajun Xiao
We examine how lenders design contracts to account for transitory and permanent cash flow shocks facing borrowers. We find that volatile transitory cash flow shocks are associated with fewer liquidity covenants, indicating financial flexibility that enables firms to... View Details
Keywords: Debt Covenants; Cash Flow Shocks; Debt Contracting; Likelihood Of Default; Cash Flow; System Shocks
Ma, Le, Anywhere Sikochi, and Yajun Xiao. "Transitory and Permanent Cash Flow Shocks in Debt Contract Design." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis (forthcoming). (Pre-published online May 25, 2024.)
- 2024
- Working Paper
Transitory and Permanent Cash Flow Shocks in Debt Contract Design
By: Le Ma, Anywhere Sikochi and Yajun Xiao
We examine how lenders design contracts to account for transitory and permanent cash flow shocks facing borrowers. We find that volatile transitory cash flow shocks are associated with fewer liquidity covenants, indicating financial flexibility that enables firms to... View Details
Keywords: Debt Covenants; Cash Flow Shocks; Debt Contracting; Likelihood Of Default; Cash Flow; System Shocks
Ma, Le, Anywhere Sikochi, and Yajun Xiao. "Transitory and Permanent Cash Flow Shocks in Debt Contract Design." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-026, October 2021. (Revised February 2024. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Conditional Accept.)
- October 2019
- Article
Limited Investment Capital and Credit Spreads
Using proprietary credit default swap (CDS) data, I investigate how capital shocks at protection sellers impact pricing in the CDS market. Seller capital shocks—measured as CDS portfolio margin payments—account for 12% of the time-series variation in weekly spread... View Details
Keywords: Credit Risk; Derivatives; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Capital Markets; Credit; Financial Institutions
Siriwardane, Emil N. "Limited Investment Capital and Credit Spreads." Journal of Finance 74, no. 5 (October 2019): 2303–2347.
Large Shocks Travel Fast
We leverage the inflation upswing of 2022 and various granular datasets to identify robust price-setting patterns following a large supply shock. We show that the frequency of price changes increases dramatically after a large shock. We set up a parsimonious New... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Credit Supply Channel of Monetary Policy Tightening and Its Distributional Impacts
By: Joshua Bosshardt, Marco Di Maggio, Ali Kakhbod and Amir Kermani
This paper studies how tightening monetary policy transmits to the economy through the mortgage market and sheds new light on the distributional consequences at both the individual and regional levels. We find that credit supply factors, specifically restrictions on... View Details
Bosshardt, Joshua, Marco Di Maggio, Ali Kakhbod, and Amir Kermani. "The Credit Supply Channel of Monetary Policy Tightening and Its Distributional Impacts." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31464, July 2023. (Revised November 2023.)
- Summer 2020
- Article
Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?: The COVID-19 Pandemic Should Be a Wake-up Call for Managers and Prompt Them to Consider Actions That Will Improve Their Resilience to Future Shocks
By: Willy C. Shih
The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the complex interdependencies of globalized supply chains. While these global multistage production networks had spread during a relatively benign environment of falling trade barriers and increasing interdependencies among countries,... View Details
Keywords: Supply Chains; Pandemic; Resilience; Supply Chain Management; Supply Chain; Global Range; Health Pandemics; Disruption; System Shocks; Crisis Management; Manufacturing Industry; United States; Asia; Europe; China
Shih, Willy C. "Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains? The COVID-19 Pandemic Should Be a Wake-up Call for Managers and Prompt Them to Consider Actions That Will Improve Their Resilience to Future Shocks." MIT Sloan Management Review 61, no. 4 (Summer 2020): 16–18.
- Article
Survive Another Day: Using Changes in the Composition of Investments to Measure the Cost of Credit Constraints
By: Luis Garicano and Claudia Steinwender
We introduce a novel empirical strategy to measure the size of credit shocks. Theoretically, we show that credit shocks reduce the value of long-term relative to short-term investments. Empirically, we can therefore compare the reduction of long-term relative to... View Details
Keywords: Credit Constraints; Credit Crunch; Spain; Investment Behavior; Credit Squeeze; Financial Crisis; Economic Growth; Investment; Credit; Manufacturing Industry; Spain; European Union
Garicano, Luis, and Claudia Steinwender. "Survive Another Day: Using Changes in the Composition of Investments to Measure the Cost of Credit Constraints." Review of Economics and Statistics 98, no. 5 (December 2016): 913–924.
- May 2010
- Article
Loan Syndication and Credit Cycles
By: Victoria Ivashina and David Scharfstein
Cyclicality in the supply of business credit has been the focus of a considerable amount of research. This cyclicality can stem from shocks to borrowers' collateral, which affect firms' ability to raise capital if agency and information problems are significant (Ben S.... View Details
Keywords: Business Cycles; Capital; Credit; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; System Shocks; Financial Services Industry
Ivashina, Victoria, and David Scharfstein. "Loan Syndication and Credit Cycles." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 100, no. 2 (May 2010): 57–61.
- January 2023
- Case
EKI Energy Services: One Billion Carbon Credits
By: George Serafeim
Within nine months from the time of its Initial Public Offering (IPO) in April of 2021, EKI Energy Services (EKI) shares had increased by more than 8,000%. Equally explosive was the growth of the company’s revenues and Earnings Before Interest, Taxes and Depreciation... View Details
Keywords: Carbon Credits; Carbon Emissions; Growth; Business Analysis; Environmental Sustainability; Corporate Valuation; Climate Change; Accounting; Valuation; Transition; Renewable Energy; Analysis; Product Positioning; India
Serafeim, George. "EKI Energy Services: One Billion Carbon Credits." Harvard Business School Case 123-060, January 2023.
- 2024
- Working Paper
CSR Under the Pressure of Financial Shocks
By: Monica Kabutey, Syrena Shirley and Anywhere Sikochi
This study examines how the COVID-19 pandemic influenced firms' interactions with customers and suppliers. Customer-supplier relationships are essential because the success of interconnected firms affects the sustainability of the entire supply chain. We use the... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Supply Chain; Customer Focus and Relationships; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Financial Crisis
Kabutey, Monica, Syrena Shirley, and Anywhere Sikochi. "CSR Under the Pressure of Financial Shocks." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-006, August 2024.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy Across Races: Evidence from the U.S. Credit Register
By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia and Camelia Minoiu
We examine the consequences of monetary policy on racial disparities, focusing on the role of bank lending to firms through collateral and selection channels. Leveraging comprehensive loan-level data from the U.S. credit register (Y-14Q) of the Federal Reserve, we show... View Details
Keywords: Monetary Policy Transmission; Inequity; Credit Registry; Wealth; Collateral Channel; Selection; Racial Disparity; Racial Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Banks and Banking; Credit; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Banking Industry; United States
Alfaro, Laura, Ester Faia, and Camelia Minoiu. "Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy Across Races: Evidence from the U.S. Credit Register." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-068, April 2022.
- 01 Sep 2005
- News
Get Ready for Saudi Oil Shock
Photo Courtesy MATTHEW R. SIMMONS In his new book, Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy (John Wiley & Sons, 2005), Matthew Simmons (MBA ’67) sounds an alarm about a finite resource that he believes is... View Details
- 2016
- Working Paper
The Attenuating Effect of Banking Relationships on Credit Market Disruption
By: Stefan Dimitriadis and Mike Horia Teodorescu
This article examines how the relationship between banks and corporations moderates the effect of credit market disruptions. The 2008-09 financial crisis led to a dramatic restriction in the supply of credit to corporations via the syndicated loan market... View Details
- September 2021
- Article
Did Technology Contribute to the Housing Boom? Evidence from MERS
By: Stefan Lewellen and Emily Williams
We examine the effects of the Mortgage Electronic Registration System, or MERS, on mortgage origination volumes and foreclosure rates prior to the Great Recession. MERS was introduced in the late 1990s and significantly reduced the cost and time associated with... View Details
Keywords: Credit Supply; Housing Boom; Financial Innovation; Nonbank Lenders; Mortgages; Credit; Expansion; Information Technology; Outcome or Result
Lewellen, Stefan, and Emily Williams. "Did Technology Contribute to the Housing Boom? Evidence from MERS." Journal of Financial Economics 141, no. 3 (September 2021): 1244–1261.