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  • December 1990
  • Article

The Excess Co-Movement of Commodity Prices

By: J. J. Rotemberg and Robert Pindyck
Keywords: Price
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  • January 2021
  • Article

ETF Activity and Informational Efficiency of Underlying Securities

By: Lawrence Glosten, Suresh Nallareddy and Yuan Zou
This paper investigates the effect of exchange-traded funds’ (ETFs’) activity on the short-run informational efficiency of their underlying securities. We find that ETF activity increases short-run informational efficiency for stocks with weak information environments.... View Details
Keywords: ETF; Informational Efficiency; Co-movement; Systematic Earnings; Share Lending
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  • May 2024
  • Article

Production Complementarity and Information Transmission Across Industries

By: Charles M.C. Lee, Terrence Tianshuo Shi, Stephen Teng Sun and Ran Zhang
Economic theory suggests that production complementarity is an important driver of sectoral co-movements and business cycle fluctuations. We operationalize this concept using a measure of production complementarity proximity (COMPL) between any two companies. We show... View Details
Keywords: Financial Markets; Networks; Investment Return; Business Cycles
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  • Summer 2013
  • Article

Real Estate Prices During the Roaring Twenties and the Great Depression

By: Tom Nicholas and Anna Scherbina
Using new data on market-based transactions we construct real estate price indexes for Manhattan between 1920 and 1939. During the 1920s prices reached their highest level in the third quarter of 1929 before falling by 67% at the end of 1932 and hovering around that... View Details
Keywords: Property; Market Transactions; Price; Value; Financial Crisis; Investment; Real Estate Industry; New York (state, US)
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  • January 2025
  • Article

Everyone Steps Back?: The Widespread Retraction of Crowd-Funding Support for Minority Creators When Migration Fear Is High

By: John (Jianqui) Bai, William R. Kerr, Chi Wan and Alptug Yorulmaz
We study funding gaps on Kickstarter across multiple ethnic groups from 2009 to 2021. Scaling the concept of racially salient events, we quantify the close co-movement of minority funding gaps in crowd-funding to inflamed political rhetoric surrounding migration. The... View Details
Keywords: Crowdfunding; Prejudice and Bias; Race; Immigration; Public Opinion
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  • November 2023
  • Article

A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein and Adi Sunderam
We develop a model in which specialized bond investors must absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, a shift in the... View Details
Keywords: Term Premium; Exchange Rate; Currency Exchange Rate; Bonds
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  • 2010
  • Working Paper

Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries

By: Diego A. Comin, Norman Loayza, Farooq Pasha and Luis Serven
We build a two-country asymmetric DSGE model with two features: (i) endogenous and slow diffusion of technologies from the developed to the developing country, and (ii) adjustment costs to investment flows. We calibrate the model to match the Mexico-U.S. trade and FDI... View Details
Keywords: Business Cycles; Developing Countries and Economies; Trade; International Finance; Foreign Direct Investment; Mathematical Methods; Mexico; United States
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  • December 2023
  • Article

Intermediary Balance Sheets and the Treasury Yield Curve

By: Wenxin Du, Benjamin Hebert and Wenhao Li
We document a regime change in the Treasury market post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC): dealers switched from net short to net long Treasury bonds. We construct “net-long” and “net-short” curves that account for balance sheet and financing costs, and show that actual... View Details
Keywords: Bonds; Financial Markets; Financial Crisis; Asset Pricing
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  • 2024
  • Working Paper

Migration Fear and Minority Crowd-Funding Success: Evidence from Kickstarter

By: John (Jianqui) Bai, William R. Kerr, Chi Wan and Alptug Yorulmaz
We study racial biases on Kickstarter across multiple ethnic groups from 2009-2021. Scaling the concept of racially salient events, we quantify the close co-movement of minority funding gaps to inflamed political rhetoric surrounding migration. The racial funding gap... View Details
Keywords: Crowdfunding; Prejudice and Bias; Race; Immigration; Public Opinion
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  • 2014
  • Working Paper

Pay Harmony: Peer Comparison and Executive Compensation

By: Claudine Gartenberg and Julie Wulf
This study suggests that peer comparison affects both wage setting and productivity within firms. We report three changes in division manager compensation following a 1991–1992 controversy over executive pay. We argue that this controversy increased wage comparisons... View Details
Keywords: Pay-for-Performance; Internal Labor Markets; Peer Comparison; Firm Geography; Behavior; Executive Compensation; Policy
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  • 2019
  • Working Paper

Real Exchange Rate Behavior: New Evidence from Matched Retail Goods

By: Alberto Cavallo, Brent Neiman and Roberto Rigobon
We use a dataset containing daily prices for thousands of matched retail products in nine countries to study tradable-goods real exchange rates. Prices were collected from the websites of large multi-channel retailers and then carefully matched into narrowly-defined... View Details
Keywords: Purchasing Power Parity; Online Prices; Real Exchange Rate; Macroeconomics; Currency Exchange Rate; Price; Internet and the Web
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  • Research Summary

Output and asset price fluctuations

What are the sources of business cycles? How are these shocks propagated in the economy? Why are their effects so persistent? How can we explain asset price fluctuations? How are shocks transmitted internationally?To study these questions, I have developed a series... View Details

  • 18 Oct 2013
  • Working Paper Summaries

Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

Keywords: by John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira
  • 20 Nov 2012
  • First Look

First Look: November 20

co-movement (or pay-referent sensitivity, PRS) to be more pronounced in geographically concentrated firms where we expect divisional proximity to facilitate information sharing about pay and magnify peer comparisons. To separate the peer... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 02 Jul 2013
  • First Look

First Look: July 2

between 1920 and 1939. During the 1920s prices reached their highest level in the third quarter of 1929 before falling by 67% at the end of 1932 and hovering around that value for most of the Great Depression. The value of high-end properties strongly View Details
Keywords: Anna Secino
  • 18 May 2009
  • Research & Ideas

The Unseen Link Between Savings and National Growth

the data) and generate realistic theories of the stock market and of the co-movement across countries at different horizons. I am using this to explore the macro consequences of the current crisis in the United States, Mexico, and Europe. View Details
Keywords: by Sarah Jane Gilbert
  • 18 Jun 2013
  • First Look

First Look: June 18

managers-firms with the greatest information frictions prior to the rule change. We report three changes related to compensation after 1992 for division managers. First, within firms with dispersed managers, division manager pay co-moves... View Details
Keywords: Anna Secino
  • 15 Apr 2014
  • First Look

First Look: April 15

pay. We argue that this controversy increased wage comparisons within firms, particularly those with geographically dispersed managers-managers with the greatest information frictions. Following the controversy, pay in dispersed firms View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 17 Dec 2013
  • First Look

First Look: December 17

from the developed to the developing country and (ii) adjustment costs to investment flows. Consistent with the model, we observe that the flow of technologies from N to S co-moves positively with output in both N and S. After calibrating... View Details
Keywords: Carmen Nobel
  • 22 Mar 2011
  • First Look

First Look: March 22

Securities (TIPS) from the co-movement of breakeven inflation with liquidity proxies. The liquidity premium is around 70 basis points in normal times, but much larger during the early years of TIPS issuance and during the height of the... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

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