Publications

SSRN

September 2023
Article

Customer Churn and Intangible Capital

By: Scott R. Baker, Brian Baugh and Marco Sammon

Intangible capital is a crucial and growing piece of firms’ capital structure, but many of its distinct components are difficult to measure. We develop and make available several new firm-level metrics regarding a key component of intangible capital – firms’ customer... View Details

Keywords: Customer Base; Transaction Data; Customer Churn; Intangible Capital; Capital Structure; Measurement and Metrics; Customers

September–October 2020
Article

Managing Churn to Maximize Profits

By: Aurelie Lemmens and Sunil Gupta

Customer defection threatens many industries, prompting companies to deploy targeted, proactive customer retention programs and offers. A conventional approach has been to target customers either based on their predicted churn probability or their responsiveness to a... View Details

Keywords: Churn Management; Defection Prediction; Loss Function; Stochastic Gradient Boosting; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior; Profit

SSRN

June 2016
Teaching Note

HubSpot: Lower Churn through Greater CHI

By: Jill Avery, Asis Martinez Jerez and Thomas Steenburgh

HubSpot, a web marketing startup selling inbound marketing software to small- and medium-sized businesses, is under pressure from its venture capital partners to rapidly acquire new customers and to maintain a low level of customer churn. The B2B SaaS company is in the... View Details

Keywords: CRM; Customer Acquisition; Customer Retention; Churn Management; SaaS Business Models; Customer Lifetime Value; Venture Capital; Startup; Software; Monitoring And Control; Marketing; Customer Relationship Management; Marketing Strategy; Accounting; Technology Industry; United States

July–August 2013
Article

A Joint Model of Usage and Churn in Contractual Settings

By: Eva Ascarza and Bruce G.S. Hardie

As firms become more customer-centric, concepts such as customer equity come to the fore. Any serious attempt to quantify customer equity requires modeling techniques that can provide accurate multiperiod forecasts of customer behavior. Although a number of researchers... View Details

Keywords: Churn; Retention; Contractual Settings; Access Services; Hidden Markov Models; RFM; Latent Variable Models; Customer Value and Value Chain; Consumer Behavior

January 2010 (Revised March 2013)
Case

HubSpot: Lower Churn through Greater CHI

By: F. Asis Martinez Jerez, Thomas Steenburgh, Jill Avery and Lisa Brem

HubSpot, a web marketing startup is under pressure from VCs to rapidly acquire new customers and to maintain a low level of customer churn. In the case, students explore the drivers of customer churn and uncover opportunities to increase customer retention across the... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Customer Relationship Management; Customer Satisfaction; Customer Value and Value Chain; Forecasting and Prediction; Consumer Behavior; Happiness; Consulting Industry

Educators

10 Oct 2013
Working Paper Summaries

Managing Churn to Maximize Profits

Keywords: by Aurélie Lemmens & Sunil Gupta; Retail

06 Jul 2020
News

The Right Way to Manage Churn for Maximum Profit

January 2024
Exercise

Treasure Hunt: Identifying Valuable Churned Customers

By: Sara McKinley Torti

11 Nov 2013
News

A Smarter Way to Reduce Customer Churn

October 2022
Article

Revisiting Extraversion and Leadership Emergence: A Social Network Churn Perspective

By: Blaine Landis, Jon M. Jachimowicz, Dan J. Wang and Robert W. Krause

One of the classic relationships in personality psychology is that extraversion is associated with emerging as an informal leader. However, recent findings raise questions about the longevity of extraverted individuals as emergent leaders. Here, we adopt a social... View Details

Keywords: Extraversion; Social Networks; Emergent Leadership; Leadership Development; Personal Characteristics; Perception

January 2024
Supplement

Treasure Hunt: Identifying Valuable Churned Customers

By: Sara McKinley Torti

03 Jun 2014
News

‘Victims’ of churn are accessories to the crime

Article

The Perils of Proactive Churn Prevention Using Plan Recommendations: Evidence from a Field Experiment

By: Eva Ascarza, Raghuram Iyengar and Martin Schleicher

Facing the issue of increasing customer churn, many service firms have begun recommending pricing plans to their customers. One reason behind this type of retention campaign is that customers who subscribe to a plan suitable for them should be less likely to churn... View Details

Keywords: Churn/retention; Field Experiment; Pricing; Tariff/plan Choice; Targeting; Customer Relationship Management; Price; Performance Effectiveness

14 May 2020
News

We’re churning butter and making our own candles. What has coronavirus done to us?

May 2006
Article

Detection Defection: Measuring and Understanding the Predictive Accuracy of Customer Churn Models

By: Scott Neslin, Sunil Gupta, Wagner Kamakura, Junxiang Lu and Charlotte Mason

Keywords: Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction; Customers

June 23, 2021
Article

Research: When A/B Testing Doesn't Tell You the Whole Story

By: Eva Ascarza

When it comes to churn prevention, marketers traditionally start by identifying which customers are most likely to churn, and then running A/B tests to determine whether a proposed retention intervention will be effective at retaining those high-risk customers. While... View Details

Keywords: Customer Retention; Churn; Targeting; Market Research; Marketing; Investment Return; Customers; Retention; Research

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Research Summary

Overview

By: Eva Ascarza

Professor Ascarza’s research primarily focuses on providing researchers and marketers a better understanding of how to manage customer retention so as to reduce churn and increase firm’s profitability. She addresses these issues by building empirical models of customer... View Details

February 2018
Article

Retention Futility: Targeting High-Risk Customers Might Be Ineffective.

By: Eva Ascarza

Companies in a variety of sectors are increasingly managing customer churn proactively, generally by detecting customers at the highest risk of churning and targeting retention efforts towards them. While there is a vast literature on developing churn prediction models... View Details

Keywords: Retention/churn; Proactive Churn Management; Field Experiments; Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Machine Learning; Customer Relationship Management; Risk Management

2020
Working Paper

Targeting for Long-Term Outcomes

By: Jeremy Yang, Dean Eckles, Paramveer Dhillon and Sinan Aral

Decision makers often want to target interventions so as to maximize an outcome that is observed only in the long term. This typically requires delaying decisions until the outcome is observed or relying on simple short-term proxies for the long-term outcome. Here we... View Details

Keywords: Targeted Marketing; Optimization; Churn Management; Marketing; Customer Relationship Management; Policy; Learning; Outcome or Result